BC Distaff

[uncbossfan]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

The greatest two days of betting in horse racing and an even money shot is the best bet?

Sorry not speaking financially, but in terms of most confident winner.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by uncbossfan

Sorry not speaking financially, but in terms of most confident winner.

She won't be that either.

[cj]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

How do these figures compare to those for Stellar Wind and Beholder?

Will be in this week's TVG blog which I'll link in the usual spot.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Class, I wonder why you would put Songbird into the 2nd category without evidence that contradicts your own reasoning that she is more likely to fall into category 1.

IMO, the way a lightly raced or undefeated (or close to undefeated) horse repels challenges, draws off late, and goes out after the wire is sometimes a clue. I don't think tight finishes or being asked fully through the stretch is necessarily disqualifying for what I am talking about. IMO there isn't a formula for it. I think you mostly see it.

When I watch the way Songbird easily repels what appears to be stiff challenges, draws off, and comes back fresh, it makes me think there's more in the tank than a high 90s or 100 Beyer.

That's different than whether I think she will be good betting value or can beat these other two great mares. I'm not going to bet her as a short favorite, but I am not champing at the bit to bet against her because she has slower Beyers. Id be more apt to bet against her because she's going to have to deal with BOTH of them at different stages of the race. She could be better than both and still lose. I don't need that with a favorite. It will be a play against or pass for me. Maybe how the tack is playing will decide for me.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by cj

Don't disagree with any of this, but I think Stellar Wind's effort in the Oaks had more to do with shipping than with race spacing. For whatever reason her trainer is dreadful outside of California. Maybe it was the spacing, but I lean towards the latter.

Ironically, Sadler just won a stakes at Keeneland on Sunday, but your point is well taken. I suppose, too, she had some trip woes in the KY Oaks having to come from well out of it. It wasn't a shocking loss anyways; basically she was a filly who had won a maiden race at Laurel and then shipped West and annihilating everything that was out there. My presumption was the 3yo fillies were not a good group. Even the rest of her campaign before the BC Distaff was relatively unambitious (a pair of Grade 3s).

Your point has another layer as well in that the connections, although recognizable (especially out West), are not really known for winning big races. They've certainly had some talented horses, but have also not lit the world on fire with any of them (Sidney's Candy, Twirling Candy, etc.). But like I said, Stellar Wind has been handled differently, so maybe they're turning the corner with her.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Ironically, Sadler just won a stakes at Keeneland on Sunday, but your point is well taken. I suppose, too, she had some trip woes in the KY Oaks having to come from well out of it. It wasn't a shocking loss anyways; basically she was a filly who had won a maiden race at Laurel and then shipped West and annihilating everything that was out there.

She was still relatively early in her development at that stage. It's mostly in light of what she's become this year that you look back at that one and wonder what happened.

She had an outside post, was steadied a bit, and wound up way further back early than seems to be her preferred running style. I thought the races developed with more of an outside flow that day, but she lost a TON of ground. I'm pretty sure I used her that day and didn't come away from it thinking she ran poorly.

[classhandicapper]

People usually conclude that a horse has more in the tank when it was geared down late, but those are probably the worst ones. Everyone can see those (you get no price) and they are usually the result of an easy trip or weak field for the class. That's why they fail to run better next out so often. They move up in class off the win, face much better, and get a tougher trip.

A better example is the case we see where a slow paced race results in a strong finish, but the horse didn't have the opportunity to run its best figure because of that slow pace. The horse could have been whipped to the wire and still have had more in the tank. We see those on turf more often, but they happen on dirt also.

The best ones (and the hardest ones to be right about) are when a horse did not do its best early, the pace was not slow, but when finally asked the horse drew off quickly and decisively.

The assumption is usually that if the horse was asked for more early it would have slowed down late, but I don't think that's always true. Sometimes they are asked for more early and keep going - on to a better figure.

Songbird better fit into that 3rd category or she's at risk of finishing off the board as a big favorite. I think she does fit, but she may not win even if she does.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

People usually conclude that a horse has more in the tank when it was geared down late, but those are probably the worst ones. Everyone can see those (you get no price) and they are usually the result of an easy trip or weak field for the class. That's why they fail to run better next out so often. They move up in class off the win, face much better, and get a tougher trip.

A better example is the case we see where a slow paced race results in a strong finish, but the horse didn't have the opportunity to run its best figure because of that slow pace. The horse could have been whipped to the wire and still have had more in the tank. We see those on turf more often, but they happen on dirt also.

The best ones (and the hardest ones to be right about) are when a horse did not do its best early, the pace was not slow, but when finally asked the horse drew off quickly and decisively.

The assumption is usually that if the horse was asked for more early it would have slowed down late, but I don't think that's always true. Sometimes they are asked for more early and keep going - on to a better figure.

Songbird better fit into that 3rd category or she's at risk of finishing off the board as a big favorite. I think she does fit, but she may not win even if she does.

Agree with your first paragraph but what you describe as the effect of a slow pace is much more common on turf than on dirt. The figures for dirt races typically show faster figures for pace than final time. I've found this to be true for both Timeform's and my own pace figures. You will be more likely to see points added to Timeform final figures due to a fast pace than not.

When a horse runs a faster pace figure than before and goes on to record a better final figure as well it's just a case of the horse improving overall.

A good example of this is when a horse runs a big figure in a maiden win but cannot duplicate this when moved up in class due to the faster pace.
The simple explanation is that energy used early will not be available late.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

IMO, the way a lightly raced or undefeated (or close to undefeated) horse repels challenges, draws off late, and goes out after the wire is sometimes a clue. I don't think tight finishes or being asked fully through the stretch is necessarily disqualifying for what I am talking about. IMO there isn't a formula for it. I think you mostly see it.

When I watch the way Songbird easily repels what appears to be stiff challenges, draws off, and comes back fresh, it makes me think there's more in the tank than a high 90s or 100 Beyer.

Visual impressions of races can often be misleading. It may seem visually impressive to see a horse run off on their opposition until one sees the low figures of the horses she beats.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Visual impressions of races can often be misleading. It may seem visually impressive to see a horse run off on their opposition until one sees the low figures of the horses she beats.

I agree. You have to have a good line on the competition. What I've found with the really good ones is that the horses that try to run with them pay for it and run below their usual level. At one time I thought this 3yo filly crop was really strong, but as time passed my enthusiasm diminished. When the time comes, I'll probably spend more time looking at how the horses that tried to run with Songbird have been fairing against her and when she was not in the race.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

When a horse runs a faster pace figure than before and goes on to record a better final figure as well it's just a case of the horse improving overall.

In the vast majority of cases, I agree. We are talking about the exceptions. I am suggesting it is possible to foresee this as a matter of talent that has yet to be revealed rather than improvement (at least often enough to matter).

[SuperPickle]

The issue with Songbird isn't with Songbird it's with Carina Mia and Cathryn Sophia.

Next year when you look at races like the Phipps, the Ruffian and the Delaware Handicap do either of these horses look like mares who can dominate going nine or nine and a half furlongs? They do not. Both kind of look distance limited. Probably can go a mile but ideally probably seven furlong horses.

Songbird has never really raced a Grade One winner who's game is nine furlongs. She now has to face two mares who loves both Santa Anita and nine furlongs.

Can she win? Absolutely. But the idea she bosses around two mares who are in a different stratosphere than what she's been running against at their best track and best distance is pretty over the top.

The distaff is going to a great race.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by SuperPickle

The issue with Songbird isn't with Songbird it's with Carina Mia and Cathryn Sophia.

Next year when you look at races like the Phipps, the Ruffian and the Delaware Handicap do either of these horses look like mares who can dominate going nine or nine and a half furlongs? They do not. Both kind of look distance limited. Probably can go a mile but ideally probably seven furlong horses.

Songbird has never really raced a Grade One winner who's game is nine furlongs. She now has to face two mares who loves both Santa Anita and nine furlongs.

Can she win? Absolutely. But the idea she bosses around two mares who are in a different stratosphere than what she's been running against at their best track and best distance is pretty over the top.

The distaff is going to a great race.

That's sort of what I was hinting at in my previous post. I'm not so sure how good this crop turned out to be even though at one time I thought it was going to be killer.

[Pine Tree Lane]

Just for giggles, Stellar Wind 0-2 at 9 furlongs....

[SG4]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

That's sort of what I was hinting at in my previous post. I'm not so sure how good this crop turned out to be even though at one time I thought it was going to be killer.

Agree, seemed like early on there were lots of very special fillies in this crop from both visuals & speed figures, but now you're left kind of scratching your head. The comparison has been mentioned previously, but I'm inclined to be under the impression that Songbird may end up most similar to Silverbulletday, dominant of her crop but didn't carry on vs. older (she only won 1 of 7 starts against older, but even in all those races never finished behind someone from her crop, so in 24 starts only had 1 race where she was beaten by a filly her age). Songbird at least gets the chance to prove her worth on the racetrack in a big way, but it seems like the 3yo's this year have not stacked up well in the limited spots vs older so far (Carina Mia & Off the Tracks for example). She will truly be exceptional if she wins this race as the dynamics seem to present a really difficult situation for her.