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09-03-2016, 10:00 PM
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#106
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,745
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Anyone think Frosted is a little better (or same) than he was last year at two turns, but has really shown that he's a special one turn horse.
Don't his figs show that?
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09-03-2016, 10:15 PM
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#107
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: NJ/MD
Posts: 1,185
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dilanesp
5 times.
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He was disqualified out of one of his wins. From 21 races, he crossed the finish line first 17 times.
__________________
I'm on twitter: @theyreoff
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09-03-2016, 10:15 PM
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#108
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 140
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Technically, got beat 4....DQ'd once. 
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09-03-2016, 10:24 PM
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#109
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by cj
He is a big name so there won't be any value in the future, but I think you and others are greatly underestimating how tough a trip he had.
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I agree it was tough.
I just feel that an elite horse should be able hold it together, and if Bradester doesn't wire the field, come up to the leaders under his own power, and run by a bunched up finish of G2 horses.
When Frosted gets his trip he's elite. He is capable of as much energy as just about any horse in training.
Enough adversity, and he uses his energy inefficiently.
It's my belief that we know who Frosted is, and that he didn't become a new animal at age 4 or whatever the storyline was regarding his recent form coming into the Woodward.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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09-03-2016, 10:36 PM
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#110
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by andtheyreoff
He was disqualified out of one of his wins. From 21 races, he crossed the finish line first 17 times.
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A DQ is a loss. He lost 5 times. 
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09-03-2016, 11:26 PM
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#111
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 4,252
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
I agree it was tough.
I just feel that an elite horse should be able hold it together, and if Bradester doesn't wire the field, come up to the leaders under his own power, and run by a bunched up finish of G2 horses.
When Frosted gets his trip he's elite. He is capable of as much energy as just about any horse in training.
Enough adversity, and he uses his energy inefficiently.
It's my belief that we know who Frosted is, and that he didn't become a new animal at age 4 or whatever the storyline was regarding his recent form coming into the Woodward.
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The ride Frosted got (and I am not making excuses) was horrendous; looking at Trakus data his jock took him from 8 feet off the rail at the 1/4M to over 20 feet out at the 1M (in the far turn) and he loses by .03 seconds; enough said.
__________________
Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior are vital to long-term investment success – My hero, Warren Edward Buffett
"Science is correct; even if you don't believe it" - Neil deGrasse Tyson
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09-03-2016, 11:32 PM
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#112
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 4,252
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dilanesp
A DQ is a loss. He lost 5 times. |
No it's not; it is a non-win by disqualification.
__________________
Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior are vital to long-term investment success – My hero, Warren Edward Buffett
"Science is correct; even if you don't believe it" - Neil deGrasse Tyson
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09-03-2016, 11:35 PM
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#113
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 4,252
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by menifee
Anyone think Frosted is a little better (or same) than he was last year at two turns, but has really shown that he's a special one turn horse.
Don't his figs show that?
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Did you see the Woodward?
__________________
Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior are vital to long-term investment success – My hero, Warren Edward Buffett
"Science is correct; even if you don't believe it" - Neil deGrasse Tyson
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09-03-2016, 11:41 PM
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#114
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 4,252
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by rsetup
"He was behind the winner but ahead of the 2nd horse the first three calls. So, let's eliminate the slow pace excuse, as the other two endured it as well. So, the top figure is because he was one position outside the next widest horse on the turn - which wasn't 8 wide, btw. Oh, and, he never went without cover on the backstretch or first turn, where he was inside, or half the stretch turn. He lost for a number of reasons but pace and being widest half the turn weren't among them. How much for these figs?
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Do a turn calculation and prove that he wouldn't have gained more than .03 seconds by running half the distance off of the rail in the far turn than he ran.
__________________
Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior are vital to long-term investment success – My hero, Warren Edward Buffett
"Science is correct; even if you don't believe it" - Neil deGrasse Tyson
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09-03-2016, 11:44 PM
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#115
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,222
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by cj
He is a big name so there won't be any value in the future, but I think you and others are greatly underestimating how tough a trip he had.
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For all the discussion of Frosted's trip, Trackus shows the second-place horse went 3 feet further than him. And Samraat went 12 feet further.
Last edited by Fager Fan; 09-03-2016 at 11:46 PM.
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09-03-2016, 11:51 PM
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#116
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NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
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For me, the chink in his armor was his last 1/8 in the Whitney. When Joel released the hold and asked him at the 1/8, he had no bursts, no pop, nothing but the same speed. His gallop out was not amazing either for a horse who just "jogged" till the 1/8 pole.
Besides the somewhat difficult trip, he had the same last 1/8 today. Missing the acceleration, burst, kick etc.
Just don't think he's in top form now, obviously AND I don't think he is as good as his Met Mile. Ultra perfect set up, perfect storm for a sick final time AT HIS favorite distance of 1M and 1 turn.
I heard many moans about Joel not whipping and riding hard in the lane. I just don't think he's the same horse. Definitely not looking to him come BC time.
Last edited by EMD4ME; 09-03-2016 at 11:55 PM.
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09-04-2016, 12:02 AM
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#117
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,121
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by EMD4ME
For me, the chink in his armor was his last 1/8 in the Whitney. When Joel released the hold and asked him at the 1/8, he had no bursts, no pop, nothing but the same speed. His gallop out was not amazing either for a horse who just "jogged" till the 1/8 pole.
Besides the somewhat difficult trip, he had the same last 1/8 today. Missing the acceleration, burst, kick etc.
Just don't think he's in top form now, obviously AND I don't think he is as good as his Met Mile. Ultra perfect set up, perfect storm for a sick final time AT HIS favorite distance of 1M and 1 turn.
I heard many moans about Joel not whipping and riding hard in the lane. I just don't think he's the same horse. Definitely not looking to him come BC time.
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I've had several breeders tell me Tapits really don't want to go a classic distance. They generally top out at a mile, mile sixteenth.
Up until recently I thought it was bs but between Frosted and Mohayman I'm buying into it.
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09-04-2016, 12:04 AM
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#118
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fager Fan
For all the discussion of Frosted's trip, Trackus shows the second-place horse went 3 feet further than him. And Samraat went 12 feet further.
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Trakus makes plenty mistakes. That probably isn't the case here but there is so much more to his trip than ground loss. It was a slow pace and Frosted broke pretty slowly and cost himself valuable early position.
Samraat finished dead last after being up close early, how could he possibly be relevant to the discussion?
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09-04-2016, 12:05 AM
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#119
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by EMD4ME
I heard many moans about Joel not whipping and riding hard in the lane. I just don't think he's the same horse. Definitely not looking to him come BC time.
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Come on, if that were an Ortiz you'd be all over him.
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09-04-2016, 12:13 AM
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#120
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NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by cj
Come on, if that were an Ortiz you'd be all over him.
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Very true. I give you that 100%.
But I still don't think he's what people thought he was. In his current form, I want nothing to do with him. His end of his last race was a sign of a downward spiral of form. IMHO.
I hate myself for not betting against him hard today.
Last edited by EMD4ME; 09-04-2016 at 12:14 AM.
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