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04-21-2014, 01:41 AM
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#1
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broken-down horseplayer
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Portland, OR area
Posts: 2,090
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Sha Tin - Easter Night - 4/21
Wow! Lots of excitement in the first two races. In the first, the "steam" horse, Splendid Guy has his odds cut from 21 to 6 in the last minute of wagering, and goes to the back of the pack, and gets nothing. The horse I liked, , gets an ABSOLUTELY perfect trip and gets run down by the dog.
In the second race, I (redboard alert) put a few beans on the class dropping , who got hammered coming out of the gate, went from the outside rail all the way across the back of the field, made his own room about 300 out, and kept closing to get up. Had a Q with the , but not the . D'oh!
Next race is on the all weather, and will be treading even more lightly.
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Playing SRU Downs - home of the "no sweat" inquiries...
Defying the "laws" of statistics with every wager.
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04-21-2014, 01:59 AM
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#2
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broken-down horseplayer
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Portland, OR area
Posts: 2,090
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Finally caught up a bit.
Race 3 - taking the - looks great in the walking ring, and should stalk just behind the leaders. looks tough, but if Hong Kong horses bounce, he might. Thought the had a shot with the turnback, but totally dead on the board.
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Playing SRU Downs - home of the "no sweat" inquiries...
Defying the "laws" of statistics with every wager.
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04-21-2014, 02:28 AM
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#3
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broken-down horseplayer
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Portland, OR area
Posts: 2,090
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Race 3 - chalk - had some tongue tie issues prior to loading, but looked great and ran to his odds.
Race 4 - taking another class dropper with the . Should stalk, and stretch out and class drop should have him hit the board.
Qs with
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Playing SRU Downs - home of the "no sweat" inquiries...
Defying the "laws" of statistics with every wager.
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04-21-2014, 03:01 AM
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#4
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broken-down horseplayer
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Portland, OR area
Posts: 2,090
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__________________
Playing SRU Downs - home of the "no sweat" inquiries...
Defying the "laws" of statistics with every wager.
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04-21-2014, 03:31 AM
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#5
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broken-down horseplayer
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Portland, OR area
Posts: 2,090
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Race 5 - the rail on the turf course is golden. Going wide and losing ground is the kiss of death.
Race 6 - speaking of the rail, I'm staying inside on this all weather course event with the . Early speed horse trying the surface for the first time. If turning for home the jock can steer him more towards the middle of the track, he should be in good shape. Qs with
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Playing SRU Downs - home of the "no sweat" inquiries...
Defying the "laws" of statistics with every wager.
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04-21-2014, 04:00 AM
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#6
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broken-down horseplayer
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Portland, OR area
Posts: 2,090
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Race 6: ($12.80) wins, inside speed holding on AWT as well.
Race 7: Looks like more chalk, as I don't know how to keep the off the ticket. Gonna play a couple of Qs: with
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Playing SRU Downs - home of the "no sweat" inquiries...
Defying the "laws" of statistics with every wager.
Last edited by Hoofless_Wonder; 04-21-2014 at 04:01 AM.
Reason: corr race numbers
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04-21-2014, 04:32 AM
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#7
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broken-down horseplayer
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Portland, OR area
Posts: 2,090
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Race 7 - not quite up to the top pair, fades to 4th.
Race 8 - going with th e , Qs with
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Playing SRU Downs - home of the "no sweat" inquiries...
Defying the "laws" of statistics with every wager.
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04-21-2014, 05:09 AM
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#8
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broken-down horseplayer
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Portland, OR area
Posts: 2,090
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Race 8 - poor start for going wide in 1st turn.
Race 9 - trying the dog here. Qs with
__________________
Playing SRU Downs - home of the "no sweat" inquiries...
Defying the "laws" of statistics with every wager.
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04-21-2014, 05:25 AM
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#9
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broken-down horseplayer
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Portland, OR area
Posts: 2,090
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Race 9 - two races in a row get a bad start. D'oh!
Race 10 - wrapping up the card with , saver Qs with
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Playing SRU Downs - home of the "no sweat" inquiries...
Defying the "laws" of statistics with every wager.
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04-21-2014, 06:39 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,647
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how did you do? I watched last couple races on tvg but thunderstorm so sound and signal came and went.
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04-22-2014, 02:15 AM
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#11
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broken-down horseplayer
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Portland, OR area
Posts: 2,090
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davew
how did you do? I watched last couple races on tvg but thunderstorm so sound and signal came and went.
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Overall, two winners, 1 small Q, slightly ahead for the night. My largest wager on the horse in the 5th race went down the tubes, as he went wide into the stretch, and finished 6th. This makes me 0-2 so far on my "prime" bets.
Since I haven't been able to wager on their races for almost 7 years, it's going to take a while to come back up to speed on the circuit. But I'm already seeing aspects of what I loved about the horse racing from Sha Tin - it's really all about horse hierarchy (class), trip, form and bias. And for whatever reason, there are numerous races where one of the favorites doesn't have a chance, so there is value to be had. And, unlike the U.S., the steam horses often lose.
I believe Hong Kong has a break in their racing over the summer, and then begins the new "season". So, I'll putter around a bit more for the next few months trying to come back up to speed on the horses and trainers, and then give it a more serious go in the fall. I'll also start to keep my horses to watch list again, although I did not find that as useful as tracking certain horses in the U.S. It seems with the video replays and all the other info, as well as the handicappers knowing the horses so much better, it's more difficult to get value from the horse with the bad trip or eye catching move.
__________________
Playing SRU Downs - home of the "no sweat" inquiries...
Defying the "laws" of statistics with every wager.
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04-23-2014, 02:14 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 1,911
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoofless_Wonder
Overall, two winners, 1 small Q, slightly ahead for the night. My largest wager on the horse in the 5th race went down the tubes, as he went wide into the stretch, and finished 6th. This makes me 0-2 so far on my "prime" bets.
Since I haven't been able to wager on their races for almost 7 years, it's going to take a while to come back up to speed on the circuit. But I'm already seeing aspects of what I loved about the horse racing from Sha Tin - it's really all about horse hierarchy (class), trip, form and bias. And for whatever reason, there are numerous races where one of the favorites doesn't have a chance, so there is value to be had. And, unlike the U.S., the steam horses often lose.
I believe Hong Kong has a break in their racing over the summer, and then begins the new "season". So, I'll putter around a bit more for the next few months trying to come back up to speed on the horses and trainers, and then give it a more serious go in the fall. I'll also start to keep my horses to watch list again, although I did not find that as useful as tracking certain horses in the U.S. It seems with the video replays and all the other info, as well as the handicappers knowing the horses so much better, it's more difficult to get value from the horse with the bad trip or eye catching move.
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Also I believe they are tearing up Happy Valley pretty soon so there will be much more racing on the AW at Sha Tin.
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