Beyer on Dutrow, Wolfson, etc.

[DrugS]

Originally Posted by slewis

Dutrow sends two horses to Dubai and wins at a track with not only an absolute zero drug tolerance policy... but without lasix, and while sitting in South Fla. with Big Brown.

Neither horses being suspicious Dutrow move-ups.

Benny The Bull ran Beyers of 111 and 108 in his final two starts for trainer Jeff Talley before being transferred to Dutrow.

Is it that hard to believe that he can win on the legit in Dubai in a race where the laughable Star Crowned was 3rd beaten 2 lengths? And you may say 'but Idiot Proof was 2nd!' ... but that was an off form version of Idiot Proof who was beaten at Turf Paradice by reformed claimer Tribesman in his prior start. Also - after running 2nd to BTB in Dubai - Idiot Proof has returned to America and has performed horrendously to say the very least.

As for Diamond Stripes .. a horse Dutrow had from the start .. he's a 340K yearling buy after originally selling for just 95K as a weanling. Pretty profitable pinhook and no doubt exceptionally good look young horse.

Anyway, he won the Godolphin mile over a field of busters. Elusive Warning - who still has allowance conditions was 2nd. The 3rd place finisher Don Renato was beaten just 2.5 lengths. That's the same Don Renato who was 11th beaten 22 lengths in a Saudi Arabian race with Wigberto Ramos riding just six weeks prior.

And if an eye opening Dutrow form reversal is to occur in a place like Dubai - what is going to stop the suspicious minds from thinking he has an edge with something that isn't detectable?

Originally Posted by slewis

Next food for thought: Again a repeat....
I PHYSICALLY look at every horse, virtually every race at ALL 3 NYRA tracks.
(Im not talking about through binoculars, Im talking about getting within 10 feet or so, and I have TLG who will vouch for this because he's recently seen me outside in the frigid NY weather trying to get a close look).

Steve Asmussen's horses come in race after race after race looking sensational, even in winter when trainers struggle to keep horses looking sharp..

Question is .. how does he do this??? (since he is NEVER in NY in the winter).
Does he let his help in on the "black bag"??.

If so, why dont they go out on their own????

I personally don't believe Steve Asmussen is someone who performs awesome form reversals.

I think he is unfairly grouped with a bunch of trainers who have a much greater skills at performing miracles.

Why is he so unfairly grouped? because he's been caught doing some very shady stuff and he didn't exactly help himself out any with his performance on the HBO Inside Sports piece.

Here's Asmussen's year by year stats over the last five years:

2009: 40-for-211 (18% wins) $1.18 ROI
2008: (20% wins) $1.46 ROI
2007: (21% wins) $1.56 ROI
2006: (21% wins) $1.59 ROI
2005: (21% wins) $1.40 ROI

Since '05 he is 1,864-for-8,854 - (21% wins with a $1.48 ROI)

Considering the stock he gets .. consistantly being at 21% is in line with logic. He shows a weak 26% loss on the betting dollar - and while he does have a few eye opening form reversals if you think long and hard... when you consider the army of horses he's acquired over the last decade .. his 1st time with stable to dramatic form reversal ratio is awfully low.

The guys one great skill that awes me is with early season 2yo's going very short distances. His horses perform embarassingly poor on turf and synthetic surfaces.

As for why his horses may look different/better than other peoples horses? I don't know - but his training methods seem fairly different from a workout pattern standpoint. he gets fast horses to work a weekly diet of 4 furlongs in 53 and change breezes.

You'll even see modestly bred babies with those painfully slow works jump up and run off the screen going extreme sprint distances on debut.

[magwell]

TLG your right, this horse has been with Dutrow for a couple of months from what i heard.

[ralph_the_cat]

The problem with the average fan is that they really have no clue on how big of a difference a training program is from barn to barn... from training to $$$ put in... stable to stable its day to night... fans have this stupid idea that each trainer just sends the horse out every couple days to train... and "anyone could do it"... as well as that a great trainer cant improve off another great trainer, "they must be cheating, he shouldn't improve off him"... gross idea... these arent robots... few horses are running at 100%, every horse has a problem, every GREAT trainer fixes the problem, or at least improves it... Trainers dont openly admit how they improved a horse until years later... What was that ted west horse that improved big time... he later talked about how the horse had breathing issues and he had him on a "HIS" bleeders program... Trainers have training concepts you might call "secrets", that go beyond the simple idea... "hes cheating"... IF IT WAS EASY, everyone would do it... a great trainer is about being great at finding the problem and fixing it, and training the horse to be his best on race day, not the day before... but timed to explode at the right hour of the day through methods that the average fan couldnt even imagine... but ya, keep thinking its just about sending a horse out in the morning and the guys that win more cheat more... theres a thousand concepts the average fan cant even begin to understand... its not about 2 minute licks and "super drugs"

[DrugS]

Originally Posted by ralph_the_cat

theres a thousand concepts the average fan cant even begin to understand...

Can you please atleast name 600 or 700 of them for us? Maybe Beyer is lurking here and you will be able to educate him as well as many others.

Ah .. horse trainers....

is there really any greater joy in the game then getting a taste of the bs they so freely spew?

How's that dangerous turf course down at Gulfstream been lately?

[ralph_the_cat]

Originally Posted by DrugS

Can you please atleast name 600 or 700 of them for us? Maybe Beyer is lurking here and you will be able to educate him as well as many others.

Ah .. horse trainers....

is there really any greater joy in the game then getting a taste of the bs they so freely spew?

How's that dangerous turf course down at Gulfstream been lately?

the chances of educating someone as closed minded as you and beyers is about the biggest waste of time in the world... I dont follow GP... I played there a few weeks but couldnt turn a profit so I moved on... wait, I guess I should blame the horsemen...

[twindouble]

Originally Posted by DrugS

Can you please atleast name 600 or 700 of them for us? Maybe Beyer is lurking here and you will be able to educate him as well as many others.

Ah .. horse trainers....

is there really any greater joy in the game then getting a taste of the bs they so freely spew?

How's that dangerous turf course down at Gulfstream been lately?

Man I can't understand how anyone who's been around this sport as long as some here can suggest in any way there's no drug problem. Then to contribute just training methods to horses that improve 10 to 15 lengths running faster than any prior races, when they are 5,6,7,8,years old is a stretch beyond belief.

Those that believe it should put pressure on the tracks along with those that, fined, suspended, took purses away, tarnished the trainers good name and make it right. Wipe those infractions off the record. Was the latter just a figment of our imagination?

I wouldn't jump for joy if I were you.

TD

[ralph_the_cat]

Theres about 20 different concepts related to every muscle and joint located on a horse, as well as about 100 different ways to train a horse into a race...

[ralph_the_cat]

Originally Posted by twindouble

Man I can't understand how anyone who's been around this sport as long as some here can suggest in any way there's no drug problem. Then to contribute just training methods to horses that improve 10 to 15 lengths running faster than any prior races, when they are 5,6,7,8,years old is a stretch beyond belief.

Those that believe it should put pressure on the tracks along with those that, fined, suspended, took purses away, tarnished the trainers good name and make it right. Wipe those infractions off the record. Was the latter just a figment of our imagination?

I wouldn't jump for joy if I were you.

TD

This post isn't directed at me, but I thought I should mention, this is about a 3yo, not an older horse... this thread is about a young 3yo that improved his highest lifetime beyer figure, as did the 3 or 4 horses that finished behind him in the race... but no, the beyer is accurate...?, I mean the other 3 or 4 horses that improved their highest beyer in the race must have been trained by a "cheater" too... right?...

lol

[Indulto]

Originally Posted by ralph_the_cat

The problem with the average fan is that they really have no clue on how big of a difference a training program is from barn to barn... from training to $$$ put in... stable to stable its day to night... fans have this stupid idea that each trainer just sends the horse out every couple days to train... and "anyone could do it"... as well as that a great trainer cant improve off another great trainer, "they must be cheating, he shouldn't improve off him"... gross idea... these arent robots... few horses are running at 100%, every horse has a problem, every GREAT trainer fixes the problem, or at least improves it... Trainers dont openly admit how they improved a horse until years later... What was that ted west horse that improved big time... he later talked about how the horse had breathing issues and he had him on a "HIS" bleeders program... Trainers have training concepts you might call "secrets", that go beyond the simple idea... "hes cheating"... IF IT WAS EASY, everyone would do it... a great trainer is about being great at finding the problem and fixing it, and training the horse to be his best on race day, not the day before... but timed to explode at the right hour of the day through methods that the average fan couldnt even imagine... but ya, keep thinking its just about sending a horse out in the morning and the guys that win more cheat more... theres a thousand concepts the average fan cant even begin to understand... its not about 2 minute licks and "super drugs"

rtc,
Your disdain for players who can’t/won’t/don’t get any closer to the horses than the paddock fence is probably justified in many cases, but you risk coming across as another Jeff Mullins. What we don’t know – and what you apparently feel no need to tell us – simply results in our betting less which in turn results in lower purses for you.

From your conversations here with other horsemen, you appear very knowledgeable about the medical procedures employed to maintain a horse’s “racing soundness.” It would surprise me if you didn’t employ that knowledge to your advantage in the wagering pools as well. I am surprised, however, at the apparent disagreement between your perspective and that of another horseman posting in this thread, sonnyp.

Perhaps the terms “cheating” and “fairness" are both overused in racing, but taking unfair advantage is not; and IMO the people who do so have already killed the sport, and now have the game in their crosshairs. Restricting equine medical history to racing insiders, and restricting effective lower takeout to whales/professionals have resulted not just an unbeatable game for the overwhelming majority of non-professionals, but an industry-approved fleecing of people seeking entertainment in a circus-like environment operated like a carnival.

I would be willing to forego lower takeout temporarily if a) rebating were prohibited from all sources, and b) uniform medication policies and penalties were implemented and enforced by uniform, expanded security and accountability. How expensive can security cameras recording all activity in every stall in every barn be? Why can’t the vet, owner, trainer, groom, hot walker, and exercise rider all be held responsible to an appropriate degree for each horse in their charge, and fined accordingly and increasingly whenever another positive occurs among a horse in their charge. Conversely, non-vet/owner/trainers should also receive bonuses for positive-free periods. Shouldn't every barn have a security guard who can ensure that only those personally known to him/her have access and make certain that all cameras are functioning?

The vets may have to assume the greatest responsibility without a signed affidavit at time of administering from the owner and trainer that a horse testing positive would not run before a specified eligibility date. I wonder if players could benefit from knowing such dates as well.

Hey, I’m also willing to treat racing strictly as a gambling activity rather than a sport outside of the Triple Crown, but until the racing carnival operators recognize how much more money they can take away from all the chumps/”suckers” like me out there by lowering the Pick Six minimum to the point where we can comfortably play that wager, I’ll just keep my feet wet with Triple Crown preps and other stakes on dirt and turf; and the occasional synthetic stakes like the Pacific Classic where all the entrants in the 2008 renewal showed ability on those surfaces.

Hopefully, the likelihood of not betting on an unsound horse -- or even one that is just “racing sound” -- is still greater in a stakes race. It’s hard to be sure from my side of the paddock fence.

[slewis]

Originally Posted by DrugS

Neither horses being suspicious Dutrow move-ups.

Benny The Bull ran Beyers of 111 and 108 in his final two starts for trainer Jeff Talley before being transferred to Dutrow.

Is it that hard to believe that he can win on the legit in Dubai in a race where the laughable Star Crowned was 3rd beaten 2 lengths? And you may say 'but Idiot Proof was 2nd!' ... but that was an off form version of Idiot Proof who was beaten at Turf Paradice by reformed claimer Tribesman in his prior start. Also - after running 2nd to BTB in Dubai - Idiot Proof has returned to America and has performed horrendously to say the very least.

As for Diamond Stripes .. a horse Dutrow had from the start .. he's a 340K yearling buy after originally selling for just 95K as a weanling. Pretty profitable pinhook and no doubt exceptionally good look young horse.

Anyway, he won the Godolphin mile over a field of busters. Elusive Warning - who still has allowance conditions was 2nd. The 3rd place finisher Don Renato was beaten just 2.5 lengths. That's the same Don Renato who was 11th beaten 22 lengths in a Saudi Arabian race with Wigberto Ramos riding just six weeks prior.

And if an eye opening Dutrow form reversal is to occur in a place like Dubai - what is going to stop the suspicious minds from thinking he has an edge with something that isn't detectable?





I personally don't believe Steve Asmussen is someone who performs awesome form reversals.

I think he is unfairly grouped with a bunch of trainers who have a much greater skills at performing miracles.

Why is he so unfairly grouped? because he's been caught doing some very shady stuff and he didn't exactly help himself out any with his performance on the HBO Inside Sports piece.

Here's Asmussen's year by year stats over the last five years:

2009: 40-for-211 (18% wins) $1.18 ROI
2008: (20% wins) $1.46 ROI
2007: (21% wins) $1.56 ROI
2006: (21% wins) $1.59 ROI
2005: (21% wins) $1.40 ROI

Since '05 he is 1,864-for-8,854 - (21% wins with a $1.48 ROI)

Considering the stock he gets .. consistantly being at 21% is in line with logic. He shows a weak 26% loss on the betting dollar - and while he does have a few eye opening form reversals if you think long and hard... when you consider the army of horses he's acquired over the last decade .. his 1st time with stable to dramatic form reversal ratio is awfully low.

The guys one great skill that awes me is with early season 2yo's going very short distances. His horses perform embarassingly poor on turf and synthetic surfaces.

As for why his horses may look different/better than other peoples horses? I don't know - but his training methods seem fairly different from a workout pattern standpoint. he gets fast horses to work a weekly diet of 4 furlongs in 53 and change breezes.

You'll even see modestly bred babies with those painfully slow works jump up and run off the screen going extreme sprint distances on debut.

Ive just read a very long response to my post filled with stats, etc, and I'm not sure what point your trying to make.

Ive mentionerd I've had horses with Dutrow and, for example, one he moved up considerably, another he couldn't get to run a lick compared to the trainer who had him, and a baby who couldn't break her maiden for 50k, I gave to a low level trainer out of town and she eventually reeled off 4 wins in a row before unfortunately breaking down.
Dutrow, I believe is the best trainer in the game right now, I;ve said this before and I'll say it again... most trainers do things pretty much the same way. Some certainly have edges over others. Those edges may or MAY NOT be illegal. My contention is that the LEGAL stuff has gotten way out of control. They just made a hoopla about toe grabs... Hows about tapping a knee or ankle???? That's ONE THOUSAND TIMES worse then any shoe-realated danger. Hypocracy running wild at the Jockey club.
Know what?... What's taking place in racing is similar to what's going on in Washington and the rest of this once great but now pitiful country we live in.
The people who run the show are totally full of shit.. and set policy to the rest of us with a straight face for their own agenda, and for those that dont like it, too damn bad.
BTW... Asmussen's babies from what I've been told are in SERIOUS training on a private farm with simulated races BEFORE they ever set foot on the track at Churchill in the spring, hence the success.

[asH]

Negligent reporting at his best- firstly where’s the proof?

and secondly he was wrong- completely

What his article fails to report is that Kathleen O’Connell did masterful job training and placing This One’s for Phil. After breaking maiden This One’s for Phil

next 6 races after breaking maiden

*5th by 6 lengths to Big Drama, in the 100K Fla Stallion Dr. Fager, after a big middle move and finished 3 length in back of YOU LUCKIE MANN (Favorite in Beyers Gulfstream race- Sunshine Million Dash)

*1st in the mile Sea Cliff by 4.5 lengths 60K

* 2nd in the mile 70 28th running of the Foolish Pleasure 90K, made a middle move to the lead

*5th by 9 lengths to Big Drama again 4 lengths off 2nd horse, in the 400k Fla Stallion Reality

* 3rd by 2.5 in the 3rd running of the Arthur I Appleton 100k mile 1/16 turf, after leading throughout

1st in 250K Sunshine Million- beat fav YOU LUCKIE MANN

It can be said before going into the race this versatile horse had talent and experience. Dropping back in distance

Beyer is sharpening his knives early this year..Hari Cari is painless.

[TurfRuler]

Originally Posted by cj

1) Money
2) Clients
3) Money

Not only are the swindlers getting over on the average fan he is winning the purse and the wagering pool too.

[twindouble]

Originally Posted by ralph_the_cat

This post isn't directed at me, but I thought I should mention, this is about a 3yo, not an older horse... this thread is about a young 3yo that improved his highest lifetime beyer figure, as did the 3 or 4 horses that finished behind him in the race... but no, the beyer is accurate...?, I mean the other 3 or 4 horses that improved their highest beyer in the race must have been trained by a "cheater" too... right?...

lol

Sorry about that, I thought the thread was about Beyer's comments on drugs and Dutrow.

Most threads take a turn on subject matter as they progress, I'd say this one did. 3 and 4 year olds can and will improve unless they are not sound. To suggest today they don't get any help via the Vet using who knows what is somewhat naive. Don't you think? I think I'll stay away from the quote tab.

T.D

[classhandicapper]

I'd be willing to bet (and will under the right circumstances) that neither This Ones for Phil or You Luckie Man repeat their recent Beyer figure until later this year when they develop further (assuming they even do) and can actually run a legitimate 117 and 112 or they get an incredibly easy trip along the way.

I also think Kelly Leak's and Ju Jitsu Jax's figures are way more likely to be lower next time out despite the fact that they are clearly lightly raced improving horse and almost certain to improve over time. ( Perhap's Ju Jitsu Jax will repeat his figure, but only if he draws into a weaker field and shakes loose or if he runs 5 1/2F, etc...)

Some of the horses that got buried in the field are likely to run better figures next time out or soon because they were either overmatched in this spot, didn't like the dirt, didn't ship well to Florida, or developed a problem in the race.

IMO, way too much is being made of this race because the figure is inflated. These are very nice sprinting 3YOs, but IMO that figure is a fluke even though there is no obvious reason to believe that's the case based on typical speed figure methodology.

[mountainman]

Trainers can improve on other trainers through pure horsemanship without the help of illegal drugs, just as young horses can unexpectedly produce explosive performances. The concern is that these explosions AREN'T (or shouldn't be) unexpected anymore when horses are switched to supertrainers. And in my opinion, this particular case just doesn't pass the smell test. Big props to Beyer for raising questions on a sensitive issue that few other columnists or public handicappers will confront. He has proven himself a player's advocate who is unafraid to alienate prominent horsemen. And being disliked by some of the people you critique is an unpleasant price to pay for candor. You can take that from me.

What surprizes me is the failure of more owners and trainers to speak out against illegal drugging. While players have come to resent form reversals and chalk barns that never lose, they are free to adjust and jump onboard. Honest outfits, on the other hand, are powerless at the hands of cheaters. Yet, with few exceptions, they continue to close ranks and protect their own. Illegal juicing is HORSEMEN hurting HORSEMEN. Handicappers will find ways to survive-and sometimes even capitalize- but what about 4% trainers who run clean? How many will inevitably lose clients and leave the business? And how many have already exited? Where are the stats, at a time when more owners and horses are needed, on THAT attrition rate?