ValueCapper AVC Portfolio Blind Bet Results

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by andicap

My biggest issue with this type of betting is, what happens if you miss a day and that's when your 23-1 shot hits? Sure, you may also stay off a lot of losers but when your profit depends on hitting a smattering of long odds horses each month wouldn't it be devastating if you missed one of them?

I've come across that situation many times, Andi. To add insult to injury, a couple times I simply didn't get the bet down, that day. Was distracted, on the phone, whatever...and made every bet I planned--EXCEPT the one big winner. Somehow I missed it (and it's happened more than once). Believe me, that will ruin your day (and DAYS afterward)

When I discover a play that must be, at least, checked every day for suitability and wagering...I just forget about it, and move on.

If I miss those two-three plays a years that would guarantee (allegedly), a profit... so be it.

Life, and wagering, and everything that includes, can be fun--and doesn't have to be a bunch of us gumshoe horseplayers grinding out a rather mundane existence.

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by andicap

My biggest issue with this type of betting is, what happens if you miss a day and that's when your 23-1 shot hits? Sure, you may also stay off a lot of losers but when your profit depends on hitting a smattering of long odds horses each month wouldn't it be devastating if you missed one of them?

I have been doing this for quite some time and I know that I can expect somewhere between about 8-10% winners over the long haul with somewhere around 15-1 average odds. I have missed the whole week this week and I couldnt care less because I know 90% of the bets I missed were losers anyway and when I start up again its still gonna be 8-10% winners at about 15-1. Its not for everyone which is what I have said, it takes discipline, patience and most of all proper capital. Hopefully the purpose of this thread was to show it could be done with minimal effort and little afterthought. I could also make a fool of myself before its over lol. Hope to post July results when I get home Sunday from Hawaii, I do know there was another short priced (~8-1) winner on the 31st that hit while i was flying.....placed those bets at like 7AM eastern!

M

[mhaney0423]

Here are the July 2021 results

48 BETS

6 WINNERS

WIN% 12.5

TOTAL $ BET 960

TOTAL $ RET 1550

NET $ RETURN +590

ROI 61.46%

WINNERS PAID $128, $172, $364, $490, $220, $176

Was a pretty big month, admittedly, If I somehow did not bet on 7/30, it wouldve been a losing month, but the fact is, I did bet that day and had both winners. I did miss the first week of August so we will see how that affected things when I post August results.

Anyway here are the running two month totals

106 BETS

10 WINNERS

WIN% 9.4

TOTAL $ BET 2120

TOTAL $ RETURNED $2954

NET $ RETURNED 834

ROI 39.34%

AVG WINNER ODDS 13,7 - 1

Lets see where the month of August takes us

[mhaney0423]

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[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

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Excellent Matt.....

Shows you can win with 10% and that you don't have to bet favorites....


Mike

[headhawg]

Good stuff. It's great to see someone having success that is actually believable. Some of the redboarding that goes on here is nauseating. Keep it going, Matt.

[lefty359]

Pizzolla told me the size of Bankroll doesn't matter but to bet no morethan one percent on a play. Good advice I think.


Thanks, Matt for doing this.

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by lefty359

Pizzolla told me the size of Bankroll doesn't matter but to bet no morethan one percent on a play. Good advice I think.


Thanks, Matt for doing this.

Thanks Chuck! How is your ValueCapping going?

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by andicap

My biggest issue with this type of betting is, what happens if you miss a day and that's when your 23-1 shot hits? Sure, you may also stay off a lot of losers but when your profit depends on hitting a smattering of long odds horses each month wouldn't it be devastating if you missed one of them?

For what its worth, here's what happened for the week I missed, as you can see, no major disaster

[Kbatch57]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

For what its worth, here's what happened for the week I missed, as you can see, no major disaster

Hi Matt,

For the Horses that didn't win how many finished 2nd and what was the average place price?

Just wondering if it would be worth playing Win/Place or playing the AVC horse in an exacta.

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by Kbatch57

Hi Matt,

For the Horses that didn't win how many finished 2nd and what was the average place price?

Just wondering if it would be worth playing Win/Place or playing the AVC horse in an exacta.

I have not kept track of that data, although I will say that I was betting 10 to win and 20 to place for a few months and I lost money on the place bets. Problem is these come in second a lot behind an odds on favorite which just kills place prices. Sometimes now, if I get a high priced AVC say 20-1 or better I will bet 20 to win and a $2 fav over avc and then maybe a 1$ all over avc exacta, but thats only if I happen to be watching the races/board which is not often. I was watching when covid first hit and I started this thread but since back to work I can usually only bet conditionally on weekdays.

As you know, there is no way to automate or backrun data easily with valuecapper, it has to all be done by hand.

Best,

M

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by Kbatch57

Hi Matt,

For the Horses that didn't win how many finished 2nd and what was the average place price?

Just wondering if it would be worth playing Win/Place or playing the AVC horse in an exacta.

I was going to ask same question but show us the selection....

There is truth in reviewing why a horse loses and wins

Matt , do you look to see if the favorite is vulnerable?

Mike

[lefty359]

Matt, I'm doing pretty good. Since I started I'm ahead on Win bets and the few exactas I've played. I've noticed that most of my profits have come when I play against a vulnerable fav.
Thanks for your help. And continued success.

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

I was going to ask same question but show us the selection....

There is truth in reviewing why a horse loses and wins

Matt , do you look to see if the favorite is vulnerable?

Mike

Hey Mike, the portfolio Anti Value Countfown itself means that at LEAST 2 of the horses rated above the actual AVC horse have anti value.....this can be layoff, negative class drop, hard last race, hard race off layoff, etc. Usually but not always, the favorite is one of those horse that Valuecapper rates high but has anti value. Anti value at low odds is a horrible bet, anti value at acceptable odds is another thing.

[Kbatch57]

Hi Matt,
Since you are tracking the Distance, Surface and Race Description in the bet log have you filtered by each of these to see what type of races you are more successful at?

Wondering if the winners have anything in common or are they scattered all over the place?

It would be interesting as well, if you were tracking the positional and velocity race types to see if there is any correlation between these and the winning horses when using the AVC Portfolio.