Rainbow Pick 6 strategy?

[davew]

Do you bet this? Are you trying to go deep and take the pool, or go light and hope to get big overlay when you cash?

With my evaluation today (Wed 2/6) I can go a couple routes
- or a much deeper method I would not want to do myself - maybe in a partnership or syndicate...

A only 3/2/3/3/2/2 -> 216 combos
A&B 4/5/3/4/3/3 -> 2160 combos

my A's I feel should be 4/1 (20%) or better
my B's I feel are 8/1 to 4/1 (11%) or better

to take entire pool, I feel at least 2 of my C's will probably need to win (less than 11% horse)

to do that, I need inside information, better handicapping, or wheel races....


What is your strategy? or is it a bet you forget about because of bankroll...

[maclr11]

I tend to reduce it to gambling

My ticket today looks something like this

ALL/2 horses/4 horses/ key/ ALL/ 3 horses

Hope the all legs hit bombs and I get something between 5 and 15 to one in my other races

[davew]

good luck - first race deep -

I figured 1463616 combinations possible today - if not hit in next couple days, will be a gigantic mandatory pay-off.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Passed on this yesterday (looked chalky), but will trudge over to the OTB to get down today.

$2,025,390 carryover, and 2,090,880 combinations prior to scratches (races 6-11).

My strategy is to go "light", and try to cash a logical ticket. Even yesterday's payout of $1590 with the highest price horses paying $13.40 and $14.80 wasn't too bad. A $25 to $50 ticket could catch that with a couple of right keys.

Wednesday's payout shocked me - must have been two winning tickets. $111,536 with winners of $13.60, $36.40, $52.00, $13.40, $34.80, and $21.80. I wonder if this will carryover to the mandatory payout on closing day?

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Hoofless_Wonder

Wednesday's payout shocked me - must have been two winning tickets. $111,536 with winners of $13.60, $36.40, $52.00, $13.40, $34.80, and $21.80. I wonder if this will carryover to the mandatory payout on closing day?

I too was shocked by the payout Wednesday. A fair payout would have been in the $400,000-$500,000 range. Yesterday's payout was less than a parlay so was that really worth chasing? With an effective takeout of 52% for 99.9% of the players is there really a good strategy for making a play in this pool?

[cj]

Originally Posted by AndyC

I too was shocked by the payout Wednesday. A fair payout would have been in the $400,000-$500,000 range. Yesterday's payout was less than a parlay so was that really worth chasing? With an effective takeout of 52% for 99.9% of the players is there really a good strategy for making a play in this pool?

I think yesterday's payout was slightly above the parlay, and the two prior days it was way above the parlay. Given the 52% takeout, I find that pretty amazing. It tells me there are a lot of horrible tickets being played trying to take down the pot.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by cj

I think yesterday's payout was slightly above the parlay, and the two prior days it was way above the parlay. Given the 52% takeout, I find that pretty amazing. It tells me there are a lot of horrible tickets being played trying to take down the pot.

Yesterday's payout was below a parlay but the prior 2 days were above. But a parlay is hardly a benchmark for a good or bad serial bet. It would be best to use a parlay with the odds adjusted for take-out as the appropriate bar.

I think you are absolutely correct regarding the psychology of the bettors who are putting in horrible tickets trying to win the pot.

[shouldacoulda]

I try to keep it under a buck when I play. I went for 60 cents today. I did it last year and got back 73 or 79 dollars. There is so much money chasing it right now, 60 cents is all it's worth until closing day.

[cj]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Yesterday's payout was below a parlay but the prior 2 days were above. But a parlay is hardly a benchmark for a good or bad serial bet. It would be best to use a parlay with the odds adjusted for take-out as the appropriate bar.

I think you are absolutely correct regarding the psychology of the bettors who are putting in horrible tickets trying to win the pot.

You are right, it was slightly below. I was looking the Super High 5 payout. It will be interesting to see if all the lottery style tickets continue to make the payout better than it should be given the takeout.

[Stillriledup]

The best strategy is to only play it on closing day of the meet. The 2nd best strategy is to actually try and NOT hit it, put in 'chalk' tickets and hit repeat a few times as the chalk tickets will be 'value' when they pay off.

[Robert Fischer]

You are competing against people who think they are playing for $2,000,000.00 .

The closest thing to a strategy is to play small tickets only on days when you feel extremely confident in chalk for a good portion of the sequence. The goal is to win $1,000 payout on a ticket that costs around $20.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Hoofless_Wonder

I wonder if this will carryover to the mandatory payout on closing day?

It's 1/9 or worse that it will.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

You are competing against people who think they are playing for $2,000,000.00 .

The closest thing to a strategy is to play small tickets only on days when you feel extremely confident in chalk for a good portion of the sequence. The goal is to win $1,000 payout on a ticket that costs around $20.

Exactly!

[davew]

2,4,7,8 all alive for entire $2.4+ million pool

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by davew

2,4,7,8 all alive for entire $2.4+ million pool

YIKES! We're playing with fire.