estimating fair exacta payouts

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

__________
re calculating a exacta payout:
the actual payout is often not even remotely close to the fair payout as indicated in my earlier examples

then how about calculating a fair tri and superfecta payout

I'm sure it can be done

but I'm all but sure that many of the actual payouts won't be anywhere near the calculation of the fair payout
.

Here is an adventure.
most every excata payout does not beat the minimum payout.
having looked at but a few races and with years of history, the exacta underlay wins more often than the overlay. Given that,my program with eliminate the overlays, and just post the win probalility for the remaining horses. the bet size it the size of the probability

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

Here is an adventure.
most every excata payout does not beat the minimum payout.
having looked at but a few races and with years of history, the exacta underlay wins more often than the overlay. Given that,my program with eliminate the overlays, and just post the win probalility for the remaining horses. the bet size it the size of the probability

here is an example of the 1st at todays belmont.
a play on every listed combination bet size returned cost $50 and returned $80.

Belmont Park*  Race 1	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	209.92
1	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.00
2	----	----	0.006	0.005	----	0.004	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.01
3	----	0.008	----	0.021	----	0.019	0.041	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.09
4	----	0.006	0.015	----	----	0.014	0.028	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.06
5	----	----	----	0.056	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.06
6	----	0.006	0.019	0.018	0.036	----	0.033	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.11
7	----	0.017	0.056	0.049	----	0.043	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.16
8	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.00
9	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.00
10	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.00
11	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.00
12	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.00
13	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.00
14	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.00
15	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.00
16	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.00
0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.50

[formula_2002]

5 out of 9 winners at bel this day
total bet $436 return $400 for a $1 return of $92

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

5 out of 9 winners at bel this day
total bet $436 return $400 for a $1 return of $92

0.92?

[formula_2002]

To clarify. It returned 92 cents on the dollar.