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Old 10-09-2020, 01:59 PM   #46
Nitro
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MPRanger View Post
Well, why didn't you just say so? Why all the beating around the bush?
Is there anything else you're not telling us?

Interesting.
Because I never brought it up!
You can thank FakeNameChanged for providing those comments.

In terms of following the money flow there’s an awful lot that could be disclosed, but because I’m not the developer of the program I use I’m not at liberty to discuss that information.
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Old 10-09-2020, 02:10 PM   #47
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When you refer to money flow, are you trying to sperate "inside" more informed money from the money being bet by the general public?
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Old 10-09-2020, 04:53 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
When you refer to money flow, are you trying to sperate "inside" more informed money from the money being bet by the general public?
.... if I may. And Nitro can correct me if I'm wrong. He doesn't seem to be making a distinction on whose money it is, just that the market is efficient. He hasn't expounded on it enough for me to know. But I think it's a given that late money is more efficient than earlier money.

It's like the Efficient Market Hypothesis in financial markets. A stock's value is exactly what the ticker tape say's because it reflects all known information about the stock. With any change in fact or expectation there's a thousand sharks waiting to pounce which keeps prices fair. But there must be some mispricing in the market or there is no opportunity to profit. It's one thing to buy stock and hold onto it as it increases in value over time as the overall market grows and another to be able to time the market and jump in and out as opportunities arise if anyone can really do that. EMH say's you can't.

In pari-mutuel markets there is a final end to volatility when the house quits taking bets and the tote board finally stops tallying.

Personally, I can find overlays by making a line. Really, all you need is a different opinion. This opportunity will always be there due to the randomness of the game. But ... and this is key ... I haven't made a billion dollars doing it, so I'm always listening and learning.
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Old 10-09-2020, 07:27 PM   #49
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Late money more efficient? Perhaps, but some of my best returns occur when my pick goes into the gate as the favorite and comes out second choice.
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Old 10-09-2020, 11:10 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
When you refer to money flow, are you trying to sperate "inside" more informed money from the money being bet by the general public?
When I refer to money flow I’m observing the periodic changes that the tote analysis provides during a typical betting cycle. The changes are the numerical values for each entry that the analysis provides. It also creates what’s called a Par value that’s based on All of monies combined being analyzed. These values are then visually compared at 3 pre-determined betting intervals prior to post time. The time between these intervals vary based on the size of the typical betting handle being examined. The entries with values closest to the Par value are of primary interest and will eventually establish our belief in which are the real contenders in the race.
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Originally Posted by MPRanger View Post
.... if I may. And Nitro can correct me if I'm wrong. He doesn't seem to be making a distinction on whose money it is, just that the market is efficient. He hasn't expounded on it enough for me to know. But I think it's a given that late money is more efficient than earlier money.
From what I understand there’s no need to distinguish where the money originates from. The analysis works by monitoring its flow by evaluating its movement in terms of when, where, and how much is entering each of the betting pools at the desired time intervals. Be it early or late money the primary consideration is always the number value relationships between each entry and Par.
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Originally Posted by MPRanger View Post
....it reflects all known information about the stock. With any change in fact or expectation there's a thousand sharks waiting to pounce which keeps prices fair. But there must be some mispricing in the market or there is no opportunity to profit. It's one thing to buy stock and hold onto it as it increases in value over time as the overall market grows and another to be able to time the market and jump in and out as opportunities arise if anyone can really do that. EMH say's you can't.
When I once explained how I now played the horse racing game to a close friend of mine, he suggested that it’s very similar to what he and his associates do when playing the stock market. They like to find companies to invest in where they’ve discovered that the principals have also a substantial vested interest. Apparently they believe that it’s a much better investment knowing that the owners themselves have such high regard for their company’s profit potential.

A good Example:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
SA- Tote Analysis – 5/16/20
Race #8 – 5-3 W/ 1-2-9 @ 3 mins to post
Post #23
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/n...eply&p=2603660

TOTE ANALYSIS for Race # 8 – (Entries w/Computed Values closest to PAR are always of interest)
Code:

POST	3m	7m	12m	ENT#
157	148	179	166	1
158	150	123	113	2
155	137	131	94	3
194	209	198	115	4
152	138	124	129	5
242	242	222	226	6
300	276	266	253	7
390	399	389	425	8
180	150	161	157	9
229	238	226	208	10
180	167	162	149	PAR

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
Results:
Race #8 = 1-2-3-9-10 = TRI & SUPER BX & BIG Value with the Fav. Out!

Code:

POS	#	Horse	         Win	Place	Show
1st:	1	Smiling Shirlee	$9.60	$5.00	$3.40
2nd:	2	Bella Vita		$7.60	$5.20
3rd:	3	Been Studying Her		$4.00
4th:	9	Warren's Showtime	
5th:	10	Homehome		
		
•	$2.00 EXACTA 1-2     $75.40
•	$2.00 TRIFECTA 1-2-3       $326.20
•	$2.00 SUPERFECTA 1-2-3-9       $1,488.00
. 
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Old 10-10-2020, 01:48 AM   #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post

The entries with values closest to the Par value are of primary interest and will eventually establish our belief in which are the real contenders in the race.

I just don't think it's that hard to find the contenders with old school speed, pace, class and form elements of handicapping. Have you or whoever's system this is run a regression analysis around this Par?

That was in my original post ref Mr. Benter using a model. William Quirin offered a good discussion of regression analysis for his study in Winning at the Races appendix B p. 301.
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Old 10-10-2020, 08:43 AM   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
When I refer to money flow I’m observing the periodic changes that the tote analysis provides during a typical betting cycle. The changes are the numerical values for each entry that the analysis provides. It also creates what’s called a Par value that’s based on All of monies combined being analyzed. These values are then visually compared at 3 pre-determined betting intervals prior to post time. The time between these intervals vary based on the size of the typical betting handle being examined. The entries with values closest to the Par value are of primary interest and will eventually establish our belief in which are the real contenders in the race.
From what I understand there’s no need to distinguish where the money originates from. The analysis works by monitoring its flow by evaluating its movement in terms of when, where, and how much is entering each of the betting pools at the desired time intervals. Be it early or late money the primary consideration is always the number value relationships between each entry and Par.
When I once explained how I now played the horse racing game to a close friend of mine, he suggested that it’s very similar to what he and his associates do when playing the stock market. They like to find companies to invest in where they’ve discovered that the principals have also a substantial vested interest. Apparently they believe that it’s a much better investment knowing that the owners themselves have such high regard for their company’s profit potential.

A good Example:
Post #23
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/n...eply&p=2603660

TOTE ANALYSIS for Race # 8 – (Entries w/Computed Values closest to PAR are always of interest)
Code:

POST	3m	7m	12m	ENT#
157	148	179	166	1
158	150	123	113	2
155	137	131	94	3
194	209	198	115	4
152	138	124	129	5
242	242	222	226	6
300	276	266	253	7
390	399	389	425	8
180	150	161	157	9
229	238	226	208	10
180	167	162	149	PAR
Nitro, In trying to understand your example above, Wouldn't the and be closest to Par at 3MTP? Is your Par value, some combination of an average of ML+15 MTP(or 20)+ Prev. Race Ave.(my example)? I've seen others use (ML + 15MTP)/2 as their Par value. Okay, if you can't say exact formula, just interested in the combinations. Or do you recalculate the Par at 3M, 7M and 12M snapshots?
Since I like to follow money flow also, my plays usually preferred when the money flow is shaded away from some par or ML value. From the races I've analyzed, when the money flow follows a ML or Par very closely across the board, that's often exactly how the horses finish. It tells me that in a particular race there isn't any false favorites among the top three or four. My thinking may be wrong, but it always seemed logical.
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Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 10-10-2020 at 08:45 AM.
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Old 10-10-2020, 10:11 AM   #53
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I know the odds are generally efficient, but I'm still not seeing how tracking the money flow is "adding value" to the analysis. The idea is to find the inefficiencies.

For example, I've been playing horses for around 45 years. After all this time, I'm pretty good at estimating how a race is going to get bet within some range. Sometimes, I'll see a horse getting bet a lot heavier or a lot less than I expected. To me, that "could be" meaningful betting action because either I'm missing something important or someone knows something about this horse that's not available to the public (and might not be fully reflected on the board).

We see this with first time starters all the time because the public has so little information to work with, but IMO it's happening all the time. It's just harder to notice because there are fewer things insiders might know that the public won't know also.

Other than that, am looking for fundamental handicapping factors, ways of measuring them, and circumstances that the general public may not betting correctly.
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Old 10-10-2020, 10:55 AM   #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I know the odds are generally efficient, but I'm still not seeing how tracking the money flow is "adding value" to the analysis. The idea is to find the inefficiencies.

For example, I've been playing horses for around 45 years. After all this time, I'm pretty good at estimating how a race is going to get bet within some range. Sometimes, I'll see a horse getting bet a lot heavier or a lot less than I expected. To me, that "could be" meaningful betting action because either I'm missing something important or someone knows something about this horse that's not available to the public (and might not be fully reflected on the board).

We see this with first time starters all the time because the public has so little information to work with, but IMO it's happening all the time. It's just harder to notice because there are fewer things insiders might know that the public won't know also.

Other than that, am looking for fundamental handicapping factors, ways of measuring them, and circumstances that the general public may not betting correctly.
I would suggest that anyone that stakes claim to a solution support, their conclusions by posting comprehensive results, indicating at a minimum, bet size, bet type and return. We could all learn from that
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Old 10-10-2020, 01:20 PM   #55
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I would suggest that anyone that stakes claim to a solution support, their conclusions by posting comprehensive results, indicating at a minimum, bet size, bet type and return. We could all learn from that
I previously posted the results of my "automated" race flow metrics covering multiple years that showed flat bet profits on strong upgrades and severe underperformance on strong downgrades. I did that because the metrics are sufficiently complex and took so long to develop, I wasn't giving much away.

I've since developed some automated bias metrics that look very promising.

But it's a lot to ask people to give away insights and angles that can help produce profits and potentially destroy their own value by making them common knowledge. It's too damn hard to find anything worth anything in this game to just give it away if it's working.

These inefficiencies often don't last.

I once had a "place" inefficiency that was like a gravy train for a few years (and people laughed at me because I was betting to place) when NYRA had a 14% take on WPS (now higher), I was getting a 7% rebate (now lower), and they hadn't switched to "net pool pricing" for place and show playoffs yet (which hurt the edge a few percent). All those negatives plus more computer betting and that edge is long gone.
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Old 10-10-2020, 04:42 PM   #56
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I previously posted the results of my "automated" race flow metrics covering multiple years that showed flat bet profits on strong upgrades and severe underperformance on strong downgrades. I did that because the metrics are sufficiently complex and took so long to develop, I wasn't giving much away.

I've since developed some automated bias metrics that look very promising.

But it's a lot to ask people to give away insights and angles that can help produce profits and potentially destroy their own value by making them common knowledge. It's too damn hard to find anything worth anything in this game to just give it away if it's working.

These inefficiencies often don't last.

I once had a "place" inefficiency that was like a gravy train for a few years (and people laughed at me because I was betting to place) when NYRA had a 14% take on WPS (now higher), I was getting a 7% rebate (now lower), and they hadn't switched to "net pool pricing" for place and show playoffs yet (which hurt the edge a few percent). All those negatives plus more computer betting and that edge is long gone.

^^^^THIS^^^^
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Old 10-10-2020, 10:10 PM   #57
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But it's a lot to ask people to give away insights and angles that can help produce profits and potentially destroy their own value by making them common knowledge. It's too damn hard to find anything worth anything in this game to just give it away if it's working.
Exactly right! Why give knowledge away when it's still profitable? It's a lot smarter to do as the handicapping authors do. Give the knowledge away after it STOPS working.
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Old 10-10-2020, 10:31 PM   #58
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I just don't think it's that hard to find the contenders with old school speed, pace, class and form elements of handicapping. Have you or whoever's system this is run a regression analysis around this Par?

That was in my original post ref Mr. Benter using a model. William Quirin offered a good discussion of regression analysis for his study in Winning at the Races appendix B p. 301.
I believe there’s an important distinction that has to made between what one might consider a real contender and an animal that just looks good on paper. I personally believe after seeing the results of hundreds of races when compared to their related tote analysis that the contenders can be objectively deduced. Having also used the old school handicapping methodologies in the past I can also say that any interpretation of those elements is purely subjective. I value the objective information primarily because it already has an integral significance since it’s based on money which after all is what this game is all about.

I’m not sure if a regressive analysis of the Par value alone would provide any consequence. I’ve been informed that the formulas being used in tote analysis are heavily influenced by the human psychology of gambling. How that discipline is converted to a mathematical formula is beyond my pay grade. I really don’t find it necessary to understand the underlying nut-and-bolts as to how the tote analysis functions when I can produce results like this:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=160763
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=160454
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Old 10-10-2020, 10:45 PM   #59
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But it's a lot to ask people to give away insights and angles that can help produce profits and potentially destroy their own value by making them common knowledge. It's too damn hard to find anything worth anything in this game to just give it away if it's working. .
Been saying this forever. I have no problem asking/answering questions to spawn new ideas or perspectives, but I'm not giving anything away that I KNOW is an edge. I was a losing player from 14-35 years of age. No immediate plans of giving "my stuff" away.
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Old 10-11-2020, 10:52 AM   #60
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Exactly right! Why give knowledge away when it's still profitable? It's a lot smarter to do as the handicapping authors do. Give the knowledge away after it STOPS working.


Let's face it, even if you have an edge on this game, the amount time, work, and dedication involved in keeping it typically makes it a bad use of time unless you love the sport and challenge of trying to show a profit at the end of the year. To make any significant money you need the bankroll and psychological makeup to put large sums of money through the windows and deal with the ups, downs, and stresses of that long term. Not everyone is wired for all that. It's easier to write a book, sell information, or get paid to give away your picks and insights.
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