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Old 09-05-2020, 07:45 PM   #1
Half Smoke
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example - class factor overrated

....................


Churchill race 13 - the Turf Classic

the #1 horse - Factor This went off at 5.50/1

the #8 horse - Sacred Life went off at 1.90/1




there was no way IMHO that Sacred Life should have been bet way down below Factor This


the only reason that I can surmise for this happening is that Sacred Life had been in a G1 race and Factor This had not -


this is my favorite angle - it's almost guaranteed that the class horse will be bet down - many times deservingly, but also sometimes undeservingly



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Last edited by Half Smoke; 09-05-2020 at 07:46 PM.
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Old 09-05-2020, 09:37 PM   #2
Robert Fischer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
....................


Churchill race 13 - the Turf Classic

the #1 horse - Factor This went off at 5.50/1

the #8 horse - Sacred Life went off at 1.90/1




there was no way IMHO that Sacred Life should have been bet way down below Factor This


the only reason that I can surmise for this happening is that Sacred Life had been in a G1 race and Factor This had not -


this is my favorite angle - it's almost guaranteed that the class horse will be bet down - many times deservingly, but also sometimes undeservingly



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I like it.

Players got carried away sometimes, with horses such as Sacred Life, and Money Moves (Derby).
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Old 09-06-2020, 07:24 AM   #3
Onesome
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Sample size of 1...yep debate over.
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Old 09-06-2020, 09:32 AM   #4
Half Smoke
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Originally Posted by Onesome View Post
Sample size of 1...yep debate over.





you somehow missed the fact that I wasn't debating anything
and you somehow seemed to have missed this part of my quote:







Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
....................


the class horse will be bet down - many times deservingly,


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patience - I'm working on it - I will soon provide you with 750 more examples to increase the sample size -should only take a couple of days - check back regularly - I don't want you to miss anything




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Last edited by Half Smoke; 09-06-2020 at 09:42 AM.
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Old 09-06-2020, 11:23 AM   #5
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I like it.

Players got carried away sometimes, with horses such as Sacred Life, and Money Moves (Derby).
The Twinspires analysts were repeatedly expressing their amazement at the odds of Money Moves, but personally I understood some of the logic of liking that horse. Lightly raced with three starts, speed figures knocking on Triple Digits, Pletcher, and a running style that suggested a stretch out would be favorable. I had him for fourth on my super ticket. I just hope the horse can bounce back from the Derby effort, and find his true class level. He got bumped around and was parked wide before fading to 13th.

I don't know if class is a factor that's overrated - it's qualitative and difficult to define, and of course dynamic. If accurately rated, it can help determine if the horse is well spotted, but like any other handicapping factor it's no guarantee of success.
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Old 09-06-2020, 01:29 PM   #6
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The Twinspires analysts were repeatedly expressing their amazement at the odds of Money Moves, but personally I understood some of the logic of liking that horse. Lightly raced with three starts, speed figures knocking on Triple Digits, Pletcher, and a running style that suggested a stretch out would be favorable. I had him for fourth on my super ticket. I just hope the horse can bounce back from the Derby effort, and find his true class level. He got bumped around and was parked wide before fading to 13th.

I don't know if class is a factor that's overrated - it's qualitative and difficult to define, and of course dynamic. If accurately rated, it can help determine if the horse is well spotted, but like any other handicapping factor it's no guarantee of success.
I'm all in on this sentiment. I look at class as almost all encompassing. Still, class alone cannot point us in the right direction, particularly if we are rating 3 YO's. But, I could show example after example where class does/did matter. One of my favorite things is to find classier horses showing hidden improvement. Within each class level, those signs of improvement will differ. But, in the end, it's still all about finding value.
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Old 09-07-2020, 07:32 AM   #7
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Respect your opinions, but I would have wanted about 400-1 on Money Moves for an overlay.

He's a handsome, solid, one-paced type, who should be a decent racehorse.
I have love for Lapenta - I still own the alligator shoes and belt from "Dialed In's" Florida Derby.

Always fun when you have a bit of a 'wildcard', but we've really seen him enough to see that he doesn't have gears or anything flashy.

The wildcard factor, the striking name "Money Moves", the nice performance at Saratoga vs. a well-liked, well-bet older horse for a hot trainer (Bond?), ... all played a factor IMHO.

The efficient market hypothesis has it's weak spots, and those are often when irrational behavior enters the market.

Money Moves was an irrational behavior horse.

Sacred Life was a 'steam' horse where everyone went overboard.


- but like I said, this is my opinion. You could be right and he could have had a real case as a mid-level price. TBH I haven't had time to even go back and study this year's Derby, and various trips. Maybe he ran well.

I do regret missing the Mr. Big News. - Thought he was a non-contender, and spent about two seconds digging into his replays and results.
In hindsight, there are some things that I can go back and make cases for being compromised etc.., especially when I included horses like Major Fed and Attachment Rate, Third in a couple small tickets.
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Old 09-07-2020, 10:12 AM   #8
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...........................


this is a little off the subject but I didn't want to start another thread:



Tiz the Law paid as much to place as he would have paid if he had won........................ $3.40
and he paid almost as much to show as he would have paid if he had won..........................$3.20

his win odds were .70/1



it's a great example of these huge race day events sometimes creating inefficient markets in the secondary pools



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Last edited by Half Smoke; 09-07-2020 at 10:13 AM.
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Old 09-07-2020, 11:13 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
....................

Churchill race 13 - the Turf Classic

the #1 horse - Factor This went off at 5.50/1

the #8 horse - Sacred Life went off at 1.90/1

*
IMO, Factor This didn't take as much money as you expected because there were 2 other speeds in the race (Somelikeithotbrown and Spectacular Gem) that could press him or force him to run fast early. He also wound up outrunning True Valor who was ridden aggressively.

Sacred Life was competitive at the Grade 2 level, finished 4th in a good Grade 1, was coming off a powerful closing effort in a slow paced race, and imo most importantly in terms of the betting was trained by Chad Brown.

As it was, the pace was pretty fast, all those chasers tired badly, and the pace is probably why Factor This got beat. The public just settled on the wrong closer to pick him up.
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Old 09-07-2020, 01:50 PM   #10
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IMO, Factor This didn't take as much money as you expected because there were 2 other speeds in the race (Somelikeithotbrown and Spectacular Gem) that could press him or force him to run fast early. He also wound up outrunning True Valor who was ridden aggressively.

Sacred Life was competitive at the Grade 2 level, finished 4th in a good Grade 1, was coming off a powerful closing effort in a slow paced race, and imo most importantly in terms of the betting was trained by Chad Brown.

As it was, the pace was pretty fast, all those chasers tired badly, and the pace is probably why Factor This got beat. The public just settled on the wrong closer to pick him up.


you might be right
but your analysis of the race is very sophisticated

I tend to doubt that the majority of these bettors, many of them once in a blue moon players on this particular day, would have that much deep thinking behind their analysis

even if they were not once in a blue moon players

I don't believe you are typical in terms of how you come to a decision
although I do acknowledge that many of the bigger bettors on ordinary days that move the tote are very sophisticated

if a field of 10 there is almost always more than one speed horse
yes, Chad Brown being the trainer would influence some - that's simple enough

I believe that a great many betting horses and who affect the odds are not playing the game anywhere near to your level

also, I don't believe my main point that the class is horse is so often bet down is incorrect, and again, I'm not saying that the class horse doesn't often deserve to be bet down - just saying it happens very, very often



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Last edited by Half Smoke; 09-07-2020 at 01:56 PM.
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Old 09-08-2020, 01:39 PM   #11
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Ray Taulbot and later, Doc Sartin said man made class was overrated.
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