Blog Post: How Much Must You Bet to Play Professionally?

[dkithore]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

What is more important though, is how you calculate your annually return and how large bankroll you need to operate at this level. These are questions that very rarely are answered properly since there appears to exist a huge misconception about the concepts involved.

Most people would just say that the expectation is given by EDGE X HANDLE and start dreaming about how much they are going to make assuming a 1.10 ROI and a $50 per race and 100 races per week or something similar.

Nonsense.

It simply does not work like this.

Do not allow this way of thinking to deceive you.

Ether we want to accept it or not, betting horses is primary gambling and it should treat it as such. The short and even medium run results are more dominated by luck rather than skill and even if you are a highly skilled bettor the possibility to evaporate a mid size bankroll is very high.

I agree. that is so true.

[dkithore]

Originally Posted by pele polo

We've gotten off topic so I don't mind and this "professional" horse player thing comes up once a month so...

Many years ago at a track in Mexico I saw an American man who some people may refer to as looking like a deranged vagabond. I highly doubt he was I'm just describing his appearance. Anyhow, he carried with him a stack of programs, maybe a months worth and when I spotted him he was nervously watching " training races". Every inch of this man screamed out... "I'm going to panic at any moment."

I was young and incredibly intrigued. I wanted to ask him questions. The first that came out was, " So, are you a pro?"

I'll never forget the look he gave me. Have you ever walked in on someone undressing or anyone who thought they had the room to themselves only to be barged in on? That's the look I got even though there were several hundred people on the same floor. Either he was oblivious to others around him or wasn't accustomed to people trying to talk to him.

He response was, "Nobody's a pro" and quickly turned back to the training races and scribbling notes on the stack of old programs.

I don't remember what other questions I asked him as it was all very fleeting, but I do remember him telling me he wasn't betting, that actual day at least.

I saw this man one other time at the track. He was a middle aged, slightly overweight and balding and had a total disregard for impressing anyone with his style of clothing, mannerisms, etc. He was in his own world, not schizophrenically, but close. And on the second night I saw him he was with a woman, older than he and I wouldn't have been surprised if it was his mother, but whatever. I do know he was betting on that night as his pace had quickened, his glare at the track even more stone cold than the previous "training race" observations, and in the corner of his mouth you could faintly see a sly grin or smirk and it remained there as long as I saw him. His face and eyes were still serious. I don't know if that grin meant he was winning or if he was simply in the zone of degeneracy.

Whether he was a pro or not I don't know. There was nothing about him that totally turned me off about the guy, like I said I was intrigued the first time I saw him. The last words he told me on the day we "met" were:

"And I know what we're you're thinking, forget about it."

And I knew it exactly what he meant... Me trying to become a "pro", if there was any thought there.



I think it should be noted that I've come across and/or met people like him before as a child at the races and later on life as a full grown adult with children but for whatever reason he always stick out in my mind.

To this day I know, personally, three professional pari mutuel gamblers, as in the type that have no other job but playing races. One of those three plays dogs extensively. Each has his own character, backgrounds, and stature of living. And each of them make a salary if you will, that equates to close to the poverty level. $15-30k a year if I was to speculate. But I think it's an educated guess nonetheless. I've been to tracks all the country and have been involved in racing in some capacity since I was very young and have met many people who claim they are actually real professional horseplayers but beyond those three I've declined to believe them.


The Internet has changed our lives and gambling profoundly. I'm sure there are many stay at home gamblers that we all will never meet who make a living betting races and it could be a small living or a house in the hills type of living.

My point is this... I think there are many here who should:
A.) Stop kidding themselves or us
B.) Try it so you appreciate your actual living
C.) "Forget about it"

loved the story and the ending.

[barn32]

In all the years I have been gambling, I have known professional backgammon players, professional sports bettors, professional gin rummy players and professional poker players. I've even known professional pool players and I've known professional Bowlers, but I have never once known a professional horse player.

[speed]

Originally Posted by barn32

In all the years I have been gambling, I have known professional backgammon players, professional sports bettors, professional gin rummy players and professional poker players. I've even known professional pool players and I've known professional Bowlers, but I have never once known a professional horse player.

Only professional i have known was a hooker. Seriously though, anytime you are wagering against public opinion there will always be professionals. Many more professionals since the advent of rebates. Nowadays with rebates if you wager enough you can lose 8% and be profitable, playing gimmicks that is.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by barn32

In all the years I have been gambling, I have known professional backgammon players, professional sports bettors, professional gin rummy players and professional poker players. I've even known professional pool players and I've known professional Bowlers, but I have never once known a professional horse player.

I have been close enough friend with at least two of the top poker names (those seen in TV) to the point of staking one of them several times. I also know tenths of second tier poker pros who make their living at tables for decades. I also have speak with a backgammon world champ runner up for hundreds of hours about backgammon, poker and gambling in general...


Let me tell you this:

None of these pros come even close to the sophistication needed to bet horses at a word class skill level.

Horse betting is by far the most sophisticated form of gambling and I am convinced that almost none of the top tiered pros in other game posses the necessary skills to make it as a horse bettor. The game is some extremely difficult to master, so it is quite possible for you to never have meet any pro horse bettor based in how few of them exist.


As far as poker goes, it is a simple game that can be mastered in a year or two. The related bibliography covers the topic from every possible angle and most of the contemporary books are spot on, presenting clear and valid and easy to understand analysis, so it is simple for the right guy to become an expert in a short period of time... Compare this with horse racing where the extreme majority of the published information is completely wrong, antiquated and deceiving... It is obvious that not even the 'experts' of the field have a valid understanding of the game, usually confusing horsemanship with handicapping and handicapping with betting...

An expected consequence of the game been so skill demanding, is that the vast majority of the players develop the belief of a game that simply cannot be beaten. This can be seen as excuse keeping the looser pumping his dollars to the pools convincing his subconscious that he is not doing anything else wrong that being committed to an unbeatable proposition.

[Johnny V]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

I have been close enough friend with at least two of the top poker names (those seen in TV) to the point of staking one of them several times. I also know tenths of second tier poker pros who make their living at tables for decades. I also have speak with a backgammon world champ runner up for hundreds of hours about backgammon, poker and gambling in general...


Let me tell you this:

None of these pros come even close to the sophistication needed to bet horses at a word class skill level.

Horse betting is by far the most sophisticated form of gambling and I am convinced that almost none of the top tiered pros in other game posses the necessary skills to make it as a horse bettor. The game is some extremely difficult to master, so it is quite possible for you to never have meet any pro horse bettor based in how few of them exist.


As far as poker goes, it is a simple game that can be mastered in a year or two. The related bibliography covers the topic from every possible angle and most of the contemporary books are spot on, presenting clear and valid and easy to understand analysis, so it is simple for the right guy to become an expert in a short period of time... Compare this with horse racing where the extreme majority of the published information is completely wrong, antiquated and deceiving... It is obvious that not even the 'experts' of the field have a valid understanding of the game, usually confusing horsemanship with handicapping and handicapping with betting...

An expected consequence of the game been so skill demanding, is that the vast majority of the players develop the belief of a game that simply cannot be beaten. This can be seen as excuse keeping the looser pumping his dollars to the pools convincing his subconscious that he is not doing anything else wrong that being committed to an unbeatable proposition.

Excellent post, Delta. The skill level and the time involved are at a very high level at this business. There are some who are spinning their wheels thinking they are just that close to being a pro if only.... . You can fill in the blanks with the many reasons we have heard or maybe have said many times. No doubt that horse betting is the toughest way to go. Sports betting is maybe next. Anyone who is successful at this or any other endeavor must be willing put in the time and possess the skill to make it at the commensurate level they desire or are capable of reaching.

[TurfRuler]

Questions a pro get asked.

Who do you like to win today?

A professional horseplayer keeps his selections on the down low and does not reveal his favorite plays to many outsiders if anyone.

Andy Beyer allows his speed figures to go to the masses and has written books on how to win at the races, but he has not started a touting service yet.

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

I have been close enough friend with at least two of the top poker names (those seen in TV) to the point of staking one of them several times. I also know tenths of second tier poker pros who make their living at tables for decades. I also have speak with a backgammon world champ runner up for hundreds of hours about backgammon, poker and gambling in general...


Let me tell you this:

None of these pros come even close to the sophistication needed to bet horses at a word class skill level.

Horse betting is by far the most sophisticated form of gambling and I am convinced that almost none of the top tiered pros in other game posses the necessary skills to make it as a horse bettor. The game is some extremely difficult to master, so it is quite possible for you to never have meet any pro horse bettor based in how few of them exist.


As far as poker goes, it is a simple game that can be mastered in a year or two. The related bibliography covers the topic from every possible angle and most of the contemporary books are spot on, presenting clear and valid and easy to understand analysis, so it is simple for the right guy to become an expert in a short period of time... Compare this with horse racing where the extreme majority of the published information is completely wrong, antiquated and deceiving... It is obvious that not even the 'experts' of the field have a valid understanding of the game, usually confusing horsemanship with handicapping and handicapping with betting...

An expected consequence of the game been so skill demanding, is that the vast majority of the players develop the belief of a game that simply cannot be beaten. This can be seen as excuse keeping the looser pumping his dollars to the pools convincing his subconscious that he is not doing anything else wrong that being committed to an unbeatable proposition.

I think this a awful lot of patting ourselves for being horse players instead of the "easier " game of poker. A reasonably bright poker player could have become a fairly profitable grinder on the internet pretty fast. Become a world class live player is a different story and requires a much different skill set.
I have known one pro horse bettor in my life. He died thirty five years ago. The game was different then and he had to move from track to track as the horses did. He knew more about horses than anyone I ever met. Then he was a crack handicapper as well. He raised 8 kids by betting on horses. He came from a poor railroad family. He was the smartest person I have ever met by far.
I do believe that you have to be very smart to beat this game and you have to put in a lot of effort, but it is not that hard if you get on the right path. Beating it and making a living at it are too different thing though. It is my belief that most people are putting in their effort into the wrong places.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

I think this a awful lot of patting ourselves for being horse players instead of the "easier " game of poker. A reasonably bright poker player could have become a fairly profitable grinder on the internet pretty fast. Become a world class live player is a different story and requires a much different skill set.
I have known one pro horse bettor in my life. He died thirty five years ago. The game was different then and he had to move from track to track as the horses did. He knew more about horses than anyone I ever met. Then he was a crack handicapper as well. He raised 8 kids by betting on horses. He came from a poor railroad family. He was the smartest person I have ever met by far.
I do believe that you have to be very smart to beat this game and you have to put in a lot of effort, but it is not that hard if you get on the right path. Beating it and making a living at it are too different thing though. It is my belief that most people are putting in their effort into the wrong places.

Hmmm.. One of the problems I see is that there is no internet poker anymore for US residents so this is preety much out of question, at least for the moment.

More than this, I believe that the more difficult (but still possible to beat) a game is the more profitable can be. A relatively simple game, like backgammon or poker can easily result to equally matched groups of players where the eventual winner will only be determined by short term variance while the only guaranteed winner would be the house.

[TrifectaMike]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

Hmmm.. One of the problems I see is that there is no internet poker anymore for US residents so this is preety much out of question, at least for the moment.

More than this, I believe that the more difficult (but still possible to beat) a game is the more profitable can be. A relatively simple game, like backgammon or poker can easily result to equally matched groups of players where the eventual winner will only be determined by short term variance while the only guaranteed winner would be the house.

Delta,

Very insightful.

Does that also imply that a 1% to 2% better( whatever definition you use) speed rating won't help very much?

Mike

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

I have been close enough friend with at least two of the top poker names (those seen in TV) to the point of staking one of them several times. I also know tenths of second tier poker pros who make their living at tables for decades. I also have speak with a backgammon world champ runner up for hundreds of hours about backgammon, poker and gambling in general...


Let me tell you this:

None of these pros come even close to the sophistication needed to bet horses at a word class skill level.

Horse betting is by far the most sophisticated form of gambling and I am convinced that almost none of the top tiered pros in other game posses the necessary skills to make it as a horse bettor. The game is some extremely difficult to master, so it is quite possible for you to never have meet any pro horse bettor based in how few of them exist.


As far as poker goes, it is a simple game that can be mastered in a year or two. The related bibliography covers the topic from every possible angle and most of the contemporary books are spot on, presenting clear and valid and easy to understand analysis, so it is simple for the right guy to become an expert in a short period of time... Compare this with horse racing where the extreme majority of the published information is completely wrong, antiquated and deceiving... It is obvious that not even the 'experts' of the field have a valid understanding of the game, usually confusing horsemanship with handicapping and handicapping with betting...

An expected consequence of the game been so skill demanding, is that the vast majority of the players develop the belief of a game that simply cannot be beaten. This can be seen as excuse keeping the looser pumping his dollars to the pools convincing his subconscious that he is not doing anything else wrong that being committed to an unbeatable proposition.

When a game is so skill-demanding, and so much misleading and deceiving information surrounds it...what are the chances that the individual player will eventually "figure it out" all by himself? I say the chances are slim.

I have been playing this game for more than 30 years, with a seriousness that has left many of those who know me wondering about my mental state. I have read all the serious handicapping works ever written...and have been tireless in analyzing and researching the ideas that I had gathered from books...as well as the ideas that I have cultivated myself.

I eventually became an EXCELLENT handicapper...and I often astonished other players with some predictions that I made. I could talk to you about handicapping, and you would think that I was the most intelligent horseplayer in any room...and I cashed tickets for amounts that had me thinking I was on the verge of becoming the "King of the world".

But in spite of all that, I remained a big loser for years and years...and I would still be a big loser had I not eventually met a man who turned my mind completely around on what it means to really be a winning horseplayer.

He didn't show me much, but he showed me enough...and I took it up from there.

I have said it before, and I will say it again...even though I suspect some people will not want to hear it.

A true mentor is INVALUABLE in this game...not because he saves us years of painful trial and error...but because it's doubtful that we can ever figure things out in this game all by ourselves.

The game's enormous complexity -- coupled with all the misinformation dispensed left and right -- stacks the deck severely against us...and leaves us swirling around like feathers in the wind.

And the next thing we know, we are 50+ years old...and no closer to really understanding this game than we ever were.

The most successful people in every one of life's endeavors have had competent coaching. What makes us think that gambling is any different?

[TrifectaMike]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

A true mentor is INVALUABLE in this game...not because he saves us years of painful trial and error...but because it's doubtful that we can ever figure things out in this game all by ourselves.

The game's enormous complexity -- coupled with all the misinformation dispensed left and right -- stacks the deck severely against us...and leaves us swirling around like feathers in the wind.

Thask,

I've tried doing this with some of the threads I started (and various posts). The responses were generally not "pretty".

This a tough business with some very shrewd businessmen at the top! You can't avoid this REALITY!

Mike

[highnote]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

With the rebates being what they are...you can make a living off this game even without a mathematical advantage.

thaskalos -- I know what you are saying -- you can lose 2% on your betting and make 5% on rebates and come out 3% ahead.

However, technically, if you are coming out ahead because of rebates, you have a mathematical advantage.

I can guarantee you that some betting syndicates factor rebates into their advantage when calculating the optimal size of their bets.

What's interesting is that sometimes it is optimal to bet on horses that have a negative expectation. The reason being is that it limits your loses.

This is similar to what Ed Thorp discovered in blackjack. It is optimal in basic strategy to take an extra card if your first two cards total 16 and the dealer has a 10 showing. You take a hit not because you have a positive expectation, but because you will lose less often when you hit.

[TrifectaMike]

Originally Posted by highnote

What's interesting is that sometimes it is optimal to bet on horses that have a negative expectation. The reason being is that it limits your loses.

If applied properly it reduces your variance which in turn reduces your chance of ruin. (That is if ruin is a priority)

Mike

[Hoofless_Wonder]

So Thaskalos, are you willing to share what your mentor provided you that turned the tide?

I agree that mentors are invaluable, and can be useful in many aspects in life. Even Tiger Woods still uses a coach and all pro golfers need a caddy. Personally, I know my greatest weakness is discipline. Perhaps a Buddhist monk or yoga instructor could help me with that.

As far as the complexity of horse racing goes, that characteristic allows for spot plays, angles and systems that can be profitable. I've met several dozen angle players over the years who won money over the long term by reducing their plays to a handful of races. Just like the bond market guy who might specialize in utilities, I don't laugh at the show bettor of turf claiming sprinters, as long as it works. But to become a pro, I believe a more comprehensive approach is needed, and of course it provides more "action".