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11-09-2021, 03:19 PM
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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Date
Time
Track
#
Stake
Pool
Selections
Debit
Credit
Cancel
11/09 3:10 PM Penn National 7 $10.00 EXA 1, 6 / 2 $20.00
11/09 3:08 PM Penn National 6 $6.00 EXA 3 / 1, 5 $12.00
11/09 3:08 PM Penn National 6 $15.00 EXA 1, 5 / 3 $30.00
11/09 3:06 PM Mountaineer Park 2 $10.00 EXA 3 / 1, 2, 4 $30.00
11/09 2:53 PM Indiana Grand 6 $10.00 EXA 4 / 2, 3, 7, 8 $40.00
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11-09-2021, 09:24 PM
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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Penn National 7 $10.00 EXA 1, 6 / 2 $20.00 $61.00
Penn National 6 $6.00 EXA 3 / 1, 5 $12.00 $0.00
Penn National 6 $15.00 EXA 1, 5 / 3 $30.00 $0.00
Mountaineer Park 2 $10.00 EXA 3 / 1, 2, 4 $30.00 $0.00
Indiana Grand 6 $10.00 EXA 4 / 2, 3, 7, 8 $40.00 $0.00
Turf Paradise 3 $10.00 EXA 3 / 1 $10.00 $0.00
Turf Paradise 3 $20.00 EXA 1 / 3, 6 $40.00 $0.00
Finger Lakes 5 $10.00 EXA 2 / 3 $10.00 $52.00
Finger Lakes 5 $20.00 EXA 3 / 2, 4 $40.00 $0.00
230 out
113 back
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11-10-2021, 12:58 PM
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#33
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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Indiana Grand 9 $10.00 EXA 5 / 1, 2, 3, 10 $40.00
Mahoning Valley 8 $10.00 EXA 3 / 6, 7, 8 $30.00
Churchill Downs 1 $10.00 EXA 3, 4 / 2, 3, 4 $40.00
Mahoning Valley 5 $10.00 EXA 2 / 1, 6 $20.00
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11-10-2021, 05:14 PM
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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Charles Town 5 $5.00 EXA 3 / 1, 2 $10.00
Charles Town 5 $10.00 EXA 3 / 5, 6 $20.00
Penn National 7 $10.00 EXA 3 / 4, 6 $20.00
Charles Town 4 $10.00 EXA 4 / 1, 6, 7 $30.00
Mountaineer Park 2 $7.00 EXA 1 / 3, 5, 7 $21.00
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11-10-2021, 11:06 PM
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#35
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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lost every race HAHA
11/10 5:12 PM Charles Town 5 $5.00 EXA 3 / 1, 2 $10.00 $0.00
11/10 5:12 PM Charles Town 5 $10.00 EXA 3 / 5, 6 $20.00 $0.00
11/10 5:11 PM Penn National 7 $10.00 EXA 3 / 4, 6 $20.00 $0.00
11/10 5:09 PM Charles Town 4 $10.00 EXA 4 / 1, 6, 7 $30.00 $0.00
11/10 5:08 PM Mountaineer Park 2 $7.00 EXA 1 / 3, 5, 7 $21.00 $0.00
11/10 2:28 PM Mahoning Valley 5 $10.00 EXA 4, 6 / 2 $20.00 $0.00
11/10 12:55 PM Indiana Grand 9 $10.00 EXA 5 / 1, 2, 3, 10 $40.00 $0.00
11/10 12:50 PM Mahoning Valley 8 $10.00 EXA 3 / 6, 7, 8 $30.00 $0.00
11/10 12:43 PM Churchill Downs 1 $10.00 EXA 3, 4 / 2, 3, 4 $40.00 $0.00
11/10 12:36 PM Mahoning Valley 5 $10.00 EXA 2 / 1, 6 $20.00 $0.00
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11-11-2021, 12:48 AM
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Melbourne Australia
Posts: 917
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
So few people get that.
The correct approach is to use Impact Values derived using the formula: IV = Wins / ExWins
Where:
Wins = Total Wins
ExWins = sum of 1 / FieldSize for all horses.
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variance needed
you are assuming that, every horse in race has same expectancy long term
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11-11-2021, 06:16 AM
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#37
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,909
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Quote:
Originally Posted by steveb
variance needed
you are assuming that, every horse in race has same expectancy long term
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It is a single, simple, metric.
The goal is to discover the value of a CHARACTERISTIC as opposed to the value of the horse.
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11-11-2021, 09:35 AM
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#38
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teddy
11/10 5:12 PM Charles Town 5 $5.00 EXA 3 / 1, 2 $10.00 $0.00
11/10 5:12 PM Charles Town 5 $10.00 EXA 3 / 5, 6 $20.00 $0.00
11/10 5:11 PM Penn National 7 $10.00 EXA 3 / 4, 6 $20.00 $0.00
11/10 5:09 PM Charles Town 4 $10.00 EXA 4 / 1, 6, 7 $30.00 $0.00
11/10 5:08 PM Mountaineer Park 2 $7.00 EXA 1 / 3, 5, 7 $21.00 $0.00
11/10 2:28 PM Mahoning Valley 5 $10.00 EXA 4, 6 / 2 $20.00 $0.00
11/10 12:55 PM Indiana Grand 9 $10.00 EXA 5 / 1, 2, 3, 10 $40.00 $0.00
11/10 12:50 PM Mahoning Valley 8 $10.00 EXA 3 / 6, 7, 8 $30.00 $0.00
11/10 12:43 PM Churchill Downs 1 $10.00 EXA 3, 4 / 2, 3, 4 $40.00 $0.00
11/10 12:36 PM Mahoning Valley 5 $10.00 EXA 2 / 1, 6 $20.00 $0.00
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Teddy my records contain the 7th race at penn for 11/10/2021.
using your selections, and my bet sizes, while eliminating the favorite, and playing the win pool, the $1 return was $1.128.
here is my typical betting layout for .
If you post your race selections today, I'll calculate my play for all the races.
Good Luck
Code:
Penn National* Race 7 6/2 4.10
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Penn National* Race 7 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$0.000 $0.000 $72.487 $0.000 $0.000 $27.513 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $100.00
$0.00 $0.00 $54.43 $0.00 $0.00 $20.66 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $75.09
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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11-18-2021, 12:24 PM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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New plays!
11/18 12:22 PM Churchill Downs 1 $10.00 EXA 1, 2 / 1, 2, 3, 4 $60.00
11/18 12:09 PM Aqueduct 1 $6.00 EXA 4, 5 / 2 $12.00
11/18 12:09 PM Aqueduct 1 $10.00 EXA 9 / 2 $10.00
11/18 12:09 PM Aqueduct 1 $10.00 EXA 2 / 6, 7 $20.00
11/18 12:09 PM Aqueduct 1 $20.00 EXA 2 / 4, 5, 9 $60.00
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11-18-2021, 12:26 PM
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#40
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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One race one win..
Winner LOL 9-2
We are going to play multiple tickets around my pic...dutch fashion based on my handicapping.
USING my PROPRIETARY SYSTEM
Last edited by teddy; 11-18-2021 at 12:28 PM.
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11-18-2021, 01:03 PM
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#41
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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cd 2-1 another winner!
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11-18-2021, 01:16 PM
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#42
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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11/18 1:15 PM Woodbine TB 3 $10.00 EXA 6 / 2 $10.00
11/18 1:15 PM Woodbine TB 3 $4.00 EXA 2 / 1, 6, 7, 8 $16.00
11/18 1:12 PM Gulfstream 4 $6.00 EXA 1 / 10 $6.00
11/18 1:11 PM Gulfstream 4 $20.00 EXA 10 / 1 $20.00
11/18 1:09 PM Churchill Downs 2 $20.00 EXA 3 / 1, 4, 6 $60.00
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11-18-2021, 01:48 PM
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#43
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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11/18 1:47 PM Woodbine TB 4 $20.00 EXA 5 / 2 $20.00
11/18 1:47 PM Woodbine TB 4 $8.00 EXA 2 / 5 $8.00
11/18 1:47 PM Woodbine TB 4 $8.00 EXA 2 / 3, 5, 7 $24.00
11/18 1:44 PM Aqueduct 5 $10.00 EXA 7 / 2 $10.00
11/18 1:44 PM Aqueduct 5 $15.00 EXA 2 / 7 $15.00
11/18 1:44 PM Aqueduct 5 $7.00 EXA 2 / 1, 8, 10, 11, 12 $35.00
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11-18-2021, 03:24 PM
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#44
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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the rest of today
11/18 3:23 PM Delta Downs 7 $2.00 EXA 4 / 2, 3, 8 $6.00
11/18 3:23 PM Delta Downs 7 $9.00 EXA 2, 3, 8 / 4 $27.00
11/18 3:21 PM Churchill Downs 8 $20.00 EXA 1 / 4 $20.00
11/18 3:19 PM Gulfstream 8 $10.00 EXA 4 / 1, 2, 8 $30.00
11/18 3:15 PM Churchill Downs 6 $10.00 EXA 5, 6 / 4 $20.00
11/18 3:15 PM Churchill Downs 6 $10.00 EXA 4 / 1, 2, 5, 6 $40.00
11/18 3:13 PM Woodbine TB 6 $4.00 EXA 2, 4, 5, 7, 8 / 3 $20.00
11/18 3:13 PM Woodbine TB 6 $8.00 EXA 3 / 2, 4, 5, 7, 8 $40.00
11/18 3:05 PM Delta Downs 4 $10.00 EXA 4, 6, 7 / 1 $30.00
11/18 3:05 PM Delta Downs 4 $7.00 EXA 1 / 4, 6, 7 $21.00
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11-18-2021, 03:35 PM
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#45
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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3 nose beats... breaks are beating the boys but were ahead so far.
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