Exacta Idea

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by headhawg

True, but smart handicappers would have read Percentages & Probabilities written by some guy (I forget his name).

You know, I never thought that book would be such a success.

Buy Percentages & Probabilities here.

Ironically, HorseMarket Investing has sold almost 14 times as many copies!

Dave
PS: I am currently using HMI to beat crypto.

[teddy]

No bad ped, bridesmaids, chronic losers, no bad favorites.

Todays bets,
Mahoning Valley 8 $10.00 EXA 3 / 2, 6, 7 $30.00

Mahoning Valley 1 $10.00 EXA 4 / 3 $10.00
Laurel Park 9 $10.00 EXA 1 / 4, 7 $20.00
Laurel Park 9 $10.00 EXA 1, 7 / 4 $20.00 $20.00
Laurel Park 5 $10.00 EXA 1 / 4, 8 $20.00
Laurel Park 3 $10.00 EXA 2 / 5, 7 $20.00
Laurel Park 1 $10.00 EXA 3 / 4, 8, 9 $30.00
Golden Gate 8 $10.00 EXA 3 / 2, 5 $20.00
Golden Gate 5 $10.00 EXA 1, 4 / 1, 4, 5 $40.00
Golden Gate 1 $4.00 EXA 2 / 3 $4.00
Golden Gate 1 $10.00 EXA 2 / 6 $10.00
Delta Downs 7 $10.00 EXA 2 / 1, 3, 6, 8 $40.00
Charles Town 4 $10.00 EXA 4 / 1, 2, 3 $30.00
Churchill Downs 10 $10.00 EXA 4 / 3, 7, 8 $30.00
Churchill Downs 9 $10.00 EXA 2 / 1, 5, 9 $30.00
Churchill Downs 3 $10.00 EXA 3 / 1, 4 $20.00
Belmont Park 4 $10.00 EXA 4 / 2, 3 $20.00

[teddy]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

You know, I never thought that book would be such a success.

Buy Percentages & Probabilities here.

Ironically, HorseMarket Investing has sold almost 14 times as many copies!

Dave
PS: I am currently using HMI to beat crypto.

So how can this help our exact the wagers without us having to buy the book

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by teddy

So how can this help our exact the wagers without us having to buy the book

Gosh, I never thought of that as a strategy: write a book then give away what's in it. LOL

Okay, a serious answer.

You've chosen factors that are not statistically that significant, or actually might have the precise opposite impact that is suggested by the tables.

As an example, Turfway favors OUTSIDE posts, especially in the winter. (Must admit that I have not looked at this in a while, but that is what stood up for quite a while.)

There is a small section in the book on Post Position, but the studies I've never gone public with all link post position with running style.

IOW, while a particular track might favor inside posts, when you break it down by running style, you will possibly/probably find that front runners benefit from being outside while closers benefit from being inside.

Why didn't I go public with these studies?
Because the report generated - even in a small font - was 800 pages!


Hope this helps your cause.

[teddy]

Mahoning Valley 8 $10.00 EXA 3 / 2, 6, 7 $30.00 $0.00
Mahoning Valley 1 $10.00 EXA 4 / 3 $10.00 $0.00
Laurel Park 9 $10.00 EXA 1 / 4, 7 $20.00 $0.00
Laurel Park 9 $10.00 EXA 1, 7 / 4 $20.00 $20.00
Laurel Park 5 $10.00 EXA 1 / 4, 8 $20.00 $186.00
Laurel Park 3 $10.00 EXA 2 / 5, 7 $20.00 $59.00
Laurel Park 1 $10.00 EXA 3 / 4, 8, 9 $30.00 $30.00 Bet was cancelled
Golden Gate 8 $10.00 EXA 3 / 2, 5 $20.00 $0.00
Golden Gate 5 $10.00 EXA 1, 4 / 1, 4, 5 $40.00 $0.00
Golden Gate 1 $4.00 EXA 2 / 3 $4.00 $0.00
Golden Gate 1 $10.00 EXA 2 / 6 $10.00 $0.00
Delta Downs 7 $10.00 EXA 2 / 1, 3, 6, 8 $40.00 $10.00
Charles Town 4 $10.00 EXA 4 / 1, 2, 3 $30.00 $0.00
Churchill Downs 10 $10.00 EXA 4 / 3, 7, 8 $30.00 $0.00
Churchill Downs 9 $10.00 EXA 2 / 1, 5, 9 $30.00 $0.00
Churchill Downs 3 $10.00 EXA 3 / 1, 4 $20.00 $20.00
Belmont Park 4 $10.00 EXA 4 / 2, 3 $20.00 $0.00

394 bet
310 returned
40 rebate..

[teddy]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Gosh, I never thought of that as a strategy: write a book then give away what's in it. LOL

Okay, a serious answer.

You've chosen factors that are not statistically that significant, or actually might have the precise opposite impact that is suggested by the tables.

As an example, Turfway favors OUTSIDE posts, especially in the winter. (Must admit that I have not looked at this in a while, but that is what stood up for quite a while.)

There is a small section in the book on Post Position, but the studies I've never gone public with all link post position with running style.

IOW, while a particular track might favor inside posts, when you break it down by running style, you will possibly/probably find that front runners benefit from being outside while closers benefit from being inside.

Why didn't I go public with these studies?
Because the report generated - even in a small font - was 800 pages!


Hope this helps your cause.

I see.. makes sense to get your spots printed then check the rs to the pp...might move the percentage up a point or two on the roi.

[teddy]

Woodbine TB 4 $20.00 EXA 2 / 3, 4 $40.00
Mountaineer Park 6 $20.00 EXA 4 / 3, 7 $40.00
Hawthorne TB 5 $10.00 EXA 2 / 1, 4, 6, 7 $40.00

Gulfstream 6 $20.00 EXA 4 / 1, 6 $40.00
Golden Gate 9 $20.00 EXA 3 / 1, 6 $40.00

Golden Gate 8 $20.00 EXA 4 / 1, 6, 7 $60.00
Golden Gate 7 $20.00 EXA 1 / 3, 4, 5 $60.00

Golden Gate 6 $20.00 EXA 2 / 1, 4, 6 $60.00
Del Mar 9 $20.00 EXA 4 / 7, 10 $40.00
Churchill Downs 5 $20.00 EXA 3 / 5, 7, 8 $60.00
Woodbine TB 1 $5.00 EXA 3 / 2, 4, 5, 6, 9 $25.00

Belmont Park 4 $20.00 EXA 4 / 1, 6 $40.00

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by teddy

I see.. makes sense to get your spots printed then check the rs to the pp...might move the percentage up a point or two on the roi.

Question is do the "points" move up or down?

Varies by track and distance.

[teddy]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Question is do the "points" move up or down?

Varies by track and distance.

Im sorry I dont understand. The idea is to move them up LOL

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by teddy

Im sorry I dont understand. The idea is to move them up LOL

I am saying that sometimes an inside post is actually a DOWN.

That is, they win LESS.

[teddy]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I am saying that sometimes an inside post is actually a DOWN.

That is, they win LESS.

yes thats obvious. The point would be to screen my plays with a Data base that would have me exclude plays with bad posts and double down on good posts. Right?? Also where the race style was ineffective at that post we could screen those too.....

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by teddy

yes thats obvious. The point would be to screen my plays with a Data base that would have me exclude plays with bad posts and double down on good posts. Right?? Also where the race style was ineffective at that post we could screen those too.....

Then we're on the same page.

It will be a difficult mechanism to build.

[teddy]

Belmont Park 1 $10.00 EXA 4, 5, 8 / 2 $30.00 $0.00
Golden Gate 8 $20.00 EXA 4 / 1, 6, 7 $60.00 $0.00
Woodbine TB 4 $20.00 EXA 2 / 3, 4 $40.00 $0.00
Mountaineer Park 6 $20.00 EXA 4 / 3, 7$40.00 $116.00
Hawthorne TB 5 $10.00 EXA 2 / 1, 4, 6, 7 $40.00 $0.00
Gulfstream 6 $20.00 EXA 4 / 1, 6 $40.00 $0.00
Golden Gate 9 $20.00 EXA 3 / 1, 6 $40.00 $0.00

Golden Gate 7 $20.00 EXA 1 / 3, 4, 5 $60.00 $0.00
Golden Gate 6 $20.00 EXA 2 / 1, 4, 6 $60.00 $0.00
Del Mar 9 $20.00 EXA 4 / 7, 10 $40.00 $0.00
Churchill Downs 5 $20.00 EXA 3 / 5, 7, 8 $60.00 $0.00
W oodbine TB 1 $5.00 EXA 3 / 2, 4, 5, 6, 9 $25.00 $5.00
Belmont Park 4 $20.00 EXA 4 / 1, 6 $40.00 $00

returned 121
bet 565

OUCH... smacked down... only 4 winners and missed the place spot in all but one

[teddy]

Indiana Grand 1 $10.00 EXA 2 / 1 $10.00

Indiana Grand 1 $20.00 EXA 2 / 6 $20.00

Mahoning Valley 1 $5.00 EXA 3 / 8, 9 $10.00

Mountaineer Park 2 $10.00 EXA 6 / 2, 8 $20.00

Mountaineer Park 2 $5.00 EXA 2 / 8 $5.00

Mountaineer Park 2 $20.00 EXA 2 / 6, 7 $40.00

Finger Lakes 8 $10.00 EXA 3 / 4, 5, 8 $30.00
Zia Park 9 $10.00 EXA 5, 7 / 1, 3, 5, 7 $60.00

Zia Park 9 $5.00 EXA 1 / 3, 5, 7 $15.00
Mahoney Valley 1 $10.00 EXA 3 / 2, 5, 7 $30.00

[teddy]

11/09 2:12 PM Turf Paradise 3 $10.00 EXA 3 / 1 $10.00

11/09 2:11 PM Turf Paradise 3 $20.00 EXA 1 / 3, 6 $40.00

11/09 2:10 PM Finger Lakes 5 $10.00 EXA 2 / 3 $10.00

11/09 2:10 PM Finger Lakes 5 $20.00 EXA 3 / 2, 4 $40.00