2020 US Presidential election odds

[biggestal99]

Betfair next president market

Biden 1.62
Trump 2.86

Stable market

Allan

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by hcap

Of course we know when all the polls are taken. No, I never told you were nuts. I congratulate you for winning a bet, but my question is which bookies had Trump as the favorite in 2016?.

You did say bookies were more accurate then polls. I dissagree.

And I will disagree with you and agree with lambo guy.

Polls are a lagging indicator. Bookies have it right. The exchange has it right.

The polls presented were already priced in.

When polls are published they are instantly outdated.

Allan

[lamboguy]

2020 US Presidential Election - Electoral Votes Winner - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
501 Republican Nominee wins Alabama -1800
502 Democratic Nominee wins Alabama +880
503 Republican Nominee wins Alaska -420
504 Democratic Nominee wins Alaska +300
505 Republican Nominee wins Arizona +150
506 Democratic Nominee wins Arizona -190
507 Republican Nominee wins Arkansas -900
508 Democratic Nominee wins Arkansas +500
509 Republican Nominee wins California +1500
510 Democratic Nominee wins California -4500
511 Republican Nominee wins Colorado +600
512 Democratic Nominee wins Colorado -1200
513 Republican Nominee wins Connecticut +700
514 Democratic Nominee wins Connecticut -1500
515 Republican Nominee wins Delaware +900
516 Democratic Nominee wins Delaware -1850
517 Republican Nominee wins Dist of Columbia +5000
518 Democratic Nominee wins Dist of Columbia -20000
519 Republican Nominee wins Florida +140
520 Democratic Nominee wins Florida -180
521 Republican Nominee wins Georgia -160
522 Democratic Nominee wins Georgia +120
523 Republican Nominee wins Hawaii +2400
524 Democratic Nominee wins Hawaii -7200
525 Republican Nominee wins Idaho -2600
526 Democratic Nominee wins Idaho +1200
527 Republican Nominee wins Illinois +1100
528 Democratic Nominee wins Illinois -2300
529 Republican Nominee wins Indiana -750
530 Democratic Nominee wins Indiana +450
531 Republican Nominee wins Iowa -180
532 Democratic Nominee wins Iowa +140
533 Republican Nominee wins Kansas -1200
534 Democratic Nominee wins Kansas +600
535 Republican Nominee wins Kentucky -1500
536 Democratic Nominee wins Kentucky +700
537 Republican Nominee wins Louisiana -1500
538 Democratic Nominee wins Louisiana +700
539 Republican Nominee wins Maine +280
540 Democratic Nominee wins Maine -400
541 Republican Nominee wins Maryland +1300
542 Democratic Nominee wins Maryland -3000
543 Republican Nominee wins Massachusetts +1400
544 Democratic Nominee wins Massachusetts -3600
545 Republican Nominee wins Michigan +255
546 Democratic Nominee wins Michigan -365
547 Republican Nominee wins Minnesota +400
548 Democratic Nominee wins Minnesota -600
549 Republican Nominee wins Mississippi -2000
550 Democratic Nominee wins Mississippi +1000
551 Republican Nominee wins Missouri -600
552 Democratic Nominee wins Missouri +400
553 Republican Nominee wins Montana -750
554 Democratic Nominee wins Montana +450
555 Republican Nominee wins Nebraska -2600
556 Democratic Nominee wins Nebraska +1200
557 Republican Nominee wins Nevada +325
558 Democratic Nominee wins Nevada -475
559 Republican Nominee wins New Hampshire +220
560 Democratic Nominee wins New Hampshire -300
561 Republican Nominee wins New Jersey +850
562 Democratic Nominee wins New Jersey -1750
563 Republican Nominee wins New Mexico +550
564 Democratic Nominee wins New Mexico -1050
565 Republican Nominee wins New York +1300
566 Democratic Nominee wins New York -3000
567 Republican Nominee wins North Carolina -115
568 Democratic Nominee wins North Carolina -125
569 Republican Nominee wins North Dakota -2600
570 Democratic Nominee wins North Dakota +1200
571 Republican Nominee wins Ohio -155
572 Democratic Nominee wins Ohio +115
573 Republican Nominee wins Oklahoma -2600
574 Democratic Nominee wins Oklahoma +1200
575 Republican Nominee wins Oregon +700
576 Democratic Nominee wins Oregon -1500
577 Republican Nominee wins Pennsylvania +230
578 Democratic Nominee wins Pennsylvania -310
579 Republican Nominee wins Rhode Island +900
580 Democratic Nominee wins Rhode Island -1850
581 Republican Nominee wins South Carolina -675
582 Democratic Nominee wins South Carolina +425
583 Republican Nominee wins South Dakota -2600
584 Democratic Nominee wins South Dakota +1200
585 Republican Nominee wins Tennessee -1950
586 Democratic Nominee wins Tennessee +950
587 Republican Nominee wins Texas -280
588 Democratic Nominee wins Texas +200
589 Republican Nominee wins Utah -750
590 Democratic Nominee wins Utah +450
591 Republican Nominee wins Vermont +1300
592 Democratic Nominee wins Vermont -3000
593 Republican Nominee wins Virginia +500
594 Democratic Nominee wins Virginia -900
595 Republican Nominee wins Washington +900
596 Democratic Nominee wins Washington -1850
597 Republican Nominee wins West Virginia -2000
598 Democratic Nominee wins West Virginia +1000
599 Republican Nominee wins Wisconsin +190
600 Democratic Nominee wins Wisconsin -270
601 Republican Nominee wins Wyoming -2600
602 Democratic Nominee wins Wyoming +1200

[lamboguy]

if you look at the state by state electoral you will see that in the historical republican states, the republican nominee is losing support. while the states that have been likely democratic have been losing very slight strength to the republicans.

i have been watching Missouri which was a swing state 20 years ago. they have been getting knocked down consistently during this whole cycle.

Trump could hypothetically lose the popular vote by as many as 8 million votes and still get re-elected if he holds onto all the swing states that he carried last time out.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

And I will disagree with you and agree with lambo guy.

Polls are a lagging indicator. Bookies have it right. The exchange has it right.

The polls presented were already priced in.

When polls are published they are instantly outdated.

Allan

So which and how many had Trump as the favorite in 2016? Polling inaccuracies and bookies predictions, both occur when the electoral college divers from the popular vote like in 2016

From 538....

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...te-polls-been/

Polls conducted in the final 21 days before the last five presidential general elections had a weighted average error of 4.0 points.1 (We define error as the absolute difference between a poll’s margin between the top two candidates and the actual vote share margin. For example, if a poll gave the Republican candidate a lead of 3 percentage points but the Democrat won the election by 2 points, that poll had a 5-point error.) And even in 2016, when many people blamed the polls for not predicting President Trump’s victory, the polls within 21 days of the election performed decently well, with a weighted average error of 4.9 points.

[horses4courses]

Bookies lines should reflect one thing only - cash flow.
If you want to take that as an indication of % chance
of winning, that's up to you. It should be separate from
poll opinion.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

if you look at the state by state electoral you will see that in the historical republican states, the republican nominee is losing support. while the states that have been likely democratic have been losing very slight strength to the republicans.

i have been watching Missouri which was a swing state 20 years ago. they have been getting knocked down consistently during this whole cycle.

Trump could hypothetically lose the popular vote by as many as 8 million votes and still get re-elected if he holds onto all the swing states that he carried last time out.

Trump is the dog in 6 states that he won in 16.

Arizona 11 Ev
Florida 29 ev
Michigan 16 ev
North Carolina 15 ev
Pennsy 20 ev
Wisconsin 10 ev

How many of those states can he afford to lose?

Arizona and Florida are covid states.

North Carolina has a popular dem governor.

Pennsy is Biden’s home state and has a popular dem governor

Michigan also has a popular dem governor

Along with Wisconsin.

Trump is looking more and more like a loser of this election every day that passes.

Allan

[PaceAdvantage]

Are they offering odds yet on whether or not Trump will leave the WH if he loses?

I mean, they keep PUSHING this little story ENDLESSLY...just read another attempt at an article on this topic just now...released a mere 3 hrs ago...

So I'm guessing there has to be a line on this...

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Are they offering odds yet on whether or not Trump will leave the WH if he loses?

I mean, they keep PUSHING this little story ENDLESSLY...just read another attempt at an article on this topic just now...released a mere 3 hrs ago...

So I'm guessing there has to be a line on this...

you can get insurance on this one with Lloyds of London.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

you can get insurance on this one with Lloyds of London.

So I can't bet on whether he will refuse to leave the WH if he loses?

Will DJT refuse to leave the White House if he loses the 2020 election?

Yes

No

What's the current lines man?!?!?!?

[newtothegame]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

So I can't bet on whether he will refuse to leave the WH if he loses?

Will DJT refuse to leave the White House if he loses the 2020 election?

Yes

No

What's the current lines man?!?!?!?

Waiting on this answer as I want some of that action )))

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

So I can't bet on whether he will refuse to leave the WH if he loses?

Will DJT refuse to leave the White House if he loses the 2020 election?

Yes

No

What's the current lines man?!?!?!?

Bookmakers would shy away from any such proposition.
After all, someone has inside information on the outcome.

Sealed ballots on the outcome of The Oscars would be far
more secure than those in the know on this proposition.
Simply not to be trusted.

[lamboguy]

i don't have a line. if you are serious about protecting yourself from Trump not leaving, you will have to go to LLOYDS OF LONDON. they will do an actuary on what you need and you can pay them a premium.

i don't know of any bookmaker that is booking bets on what you want. you will have to buy insurance.

[horses4courses]

You'd think that someone who described their new, temporary, accommodation
as "a dump", couldn't wait to get out of there when the opportunity arose.
Go figure......

[myohmyjustify]

The very same people who are convinced President Trump will not leave the WH if he loses the 2020 election are the same people who have never once criticised Hillary Clinton and the Democrats for not accepting the results of the 2016 election.