TMM-The Master Magician

[Appy]

Are you the person currently offering for sale the audio tape package on ebay for a hundred bucks?

[cato]

Just to be clear, TMM is way old and based on very simple numbers that were discussed in Pizzolla's book Handicapping Magic ("HM"). As a general statement it's not something you want to spend much time or money on unless you are enamored with the #s and discussion in HM and/or are a collector of handicapping software.

Black Magic aka BLAM is the "new" Pizzolla program that came out 7 or 8 years ago and it is light years ahead of TMM (there really is no comparison).

[upthecreek]

Originally Posted by Appy

"instructional videos"

On a related note, there was originally a cd package accompanying the TMM/Value Tech program, just as BM includes an arsenal of cd/dvd discs.

I would like to see that content if anyone has them.

Looks like the whole package is up on EBay Apparently there are DVDs

[Appy]

Noticed that, but I think it is audio tapes. Not sure I even have a way to play audio tapes any more!
I happen to like Pizzolla's products, and especially his reasoning, but I have become a confirmed ES guy and very happy about it.

[upthecreek]

Originally Posted by Appy

Noticed that, but I think it is audio tapes. Not sure I even have a way to play audio tapes any more!
I happen to like Pizzolla's products, and especially his reasoning, but I have become a confirmed ES guy and very happy about it.

Says 11 DVDs I don't see any audio tapes

[Appy]

Must be a newer listing than the one I saw a week or so ago. I haven't looked lately. Too busy tending my database!

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by Appy

Noticed that, but I think it is audio tapes. Not sure I even have a way to play audio tapes any more!
I happen to like Pizzolla's products, and especially his reasoning, but I have become a confirmed ES guy and very happy about it.

If you don't mind my asking Whats ES?

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

For the HM users: a question is there any advantages (higher winning percentage) giving a look at horses that qualify in 2 or more races according to the fulcrum? It would seem to be a better position for a horse to have the double, or more qualification as opposed to one race qualification in the PP's.

[Appy]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

If you don't mind my asking Whats ES?

ES = EquiSimROI.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

For the HM users: a question is there any advantages (higher winning percentage) giving a look at horses that qualify in 2 or more races according to the fulcrum? It would seem to be a better position for a horse to have the double, or more qualification as opposed to one race qualification in the PP's.

The concept of the fulcrum is to find the horse with the fastest early pace in its last race, and to use that as the projected pace for today's race. You then look at the other horses to see if they have shown the ability to run well in a race with that pace, either running with or overcoming that pace.

Obviously, the more races in which the horse shows good performances the better. And if the horse shows one only one such race and it appears to be atypical, then the horse may be questionable as a contender. Recency is also a big factor. Pizzolla says to assume that a horse's most recent race under today's conditions are the most representative of ability and current form unless there is an excuse (off track, bad start, 1st off a lay off, etc.).

HM is a fairly simple method, but I found it useful to learn to systematically go through the PPs. I still use it as a double check on some races, and find it useful to occasionally point out something I may have missed.

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by Appy

ES = EquiSimROI.

Thanks

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Originally Posted by Clocker

The concept of the fulcrum is to find the horse with the fastest early pace in its last race, and to use that as the projected pace for today's race. You then look at the other horses to see if they have shown the ability to run well in a race with that pace, either running with or overcoming that pace.

Obviously, the more races in which the horse shows good performances the better. And if the horse shows one only one such race and it appears to be atypical, then the horse may be questionable as a contender. Recency is also a big factor. Pizzolla says to assume that a horse's most recent race under today's conditions are the most representative of ability and current form unless there is an excuse (off track, bad start, 1st off a lay off, etc.).

HM is a fairly simple method, but I found it useful to learn to systematically go through the PPs. I still use it as a double check on some races, and find it useful to occasionally point out something I may have missed.

Thanks for the reply. Now when you talk about the ability to run well with that pace, either running with or overcoming that pace. Overcoming the pace meaning the PPF, now running well, does that mean winning or an up close finish?

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

now running well, does that mean winning or an up close finish?

"Running well" is my term. It's a subjective evaluation meaning that the horse ran well enough against the probable pace of the race to be considered a contender. It could be in the money, a strong close, fast early pace and tired, etc.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Thanks. I understand the concept of setting or over coming the pace. Naturally this is used in non-maiden dirt races especially as some races a fulcrum cannot be determined unless a constant is settled on.

Now as to your comment on double qualifiers on the fulcrum being a potential better qualifier I would think that a lone fulcrum in a race would be especially solid provided it offered value.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

Thanks. I understand the concept of setting or over coming the pace. Naturally this is used in non-maiden dirt races especially as some races a fulcrum cannot be determined unless a constant is settled on.

Now as to your comment on double qualifiers on the fulcrum being a potential better qualifier I would think that a lone fulcrum in a race would be especially solid provided it offered value.

I may have misunderstood your initial question. There is always one fulcrum, the horse with the fastest pace in its most recent race. I thought you were asking about other horses that had more than one pace line in its past races that were as good as or better than the fulcrum.