Just a Touch, This Year's Mage?

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Very similar paths in their roads to the Kentucky Derby.

While obviously trained by 2 different trainers, and running at different tracks and preps, there is some very distinct similarities.

Coming into the Kentucky Derby, their resumes were as such:

Mage: 3(1-1-0) with his only a win in his initial Maiden race at Gulfstream on 1/28/23 in solid fashion winning at 7F by nearly 4 lengths. Immediately rolled into the Fountain of Youth Stakes where he had a crazy middle move finishing 4th, but certainly displaying his talent. In his final prep in the Florida Derby, he shows his stuff running a very solid runner-up to Forte after he made another blazing move from last to first only to get caught by Forte again.

Just a Touch: 3(1-2-0) with his only win in his initial Maiden race at Fair Grounds on 1/27/24 in solid fashion winning at 6 furlongs by just over 4 lengths. Immediately rolled into the Gotham Stakes running a solid 2nd while being caught very wide in a solid 1:36 and change time running a mile on a sloppy track. Then goes on into the Blue Grass like Mage needing at least a 2nd place finish to make the Derby field, and runs another bang up race to only get beat by the late charging Sierra Leone.

While there are many things different about these two horses, their first 3 races are oddly similar. A solid debut. A push to the Derby trail. Adversity in both preps, running well amid the adversity, and only beaten in their final prep by a hard charging more seasoned colt the likes of Forte and Sierra Leone.

Cox has month to get this one ready to run in Louisville. Will he be ready to run a monster like Mage if he gets the right post and the right trip?

[classhandicapper]

Just a Touch ran an interesting race in the Bluegrass. He stalked a very fast pace and held well. One could argue he was best that day on a pace adjusted basis. But if you look at all the horses that were close to that very fast pace, none of them really collapsed. So either they all moved forward or the fast fractions didn't take much if any starch out of them. Given they are all lightly raced 3yos, they could easily have moved forward, but I don't think that conclusion is a mortal lock.

[f2tornado]

I did throw him underneath on a few Future pool exactas but I'm not expecting to cash those tickets after he was hooked from a mildly troubled trip Sierra Leone. Further, the Rags scored the winner with a 8 versus a 5 for Fierceness in the FL Derby.

Just a Touch seems like a one-pace type horse who probably needs to be near the front clocking 24.5 quarter times throughout and hope it's good enough to stay ahead of the closing types like Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom. That's a tall order going an additional panel with Fierceness potentially up there or at least pressing. There's a few other potential rabbits as well and that's before considering the Japanese who sometimes just wing it. I wasn't fond of his final panel in the BG at ~13.8. Mage, in mild contrast, ran about 13.2 in the final panel of the FL Derby, and after making up a ton of ground from a slow start. Now take a look at Lukas trained Just Steel in the Ark who ran 4 wide toward the front and still came home in a very impressive 12.2. Sure, he got beat by highly touted Baffert, but did so in style. That's the type of hose that can hit the money and boxcar the tote. Rags scored that race a 7. Sierra Leone's kick in the Blue Grass ~12.6 wouldn't look nearly so impressive if he had to close into the Muth/Just Steel 12.2 split or the Fierceness hand ride of 12.6 in Florida.

[bisket]

I was surprised the pace was passed in the stretch of the Bluegrass. I thought it showed Sierra Leon's quality while showing the weakness of the others. Now as far as Just a Touch is concerned it could have been a fitness issue and maybe he needed the race. I guess we'll have to pay attention to how he trains going into the derby. To me, the fact Epic Ride was keeping pace with rest in the stretch isn't necessarily a glowing review for the field after he gave it up in the Battaglia. Different surfaces....? but I don't buy that. Lets see what Encino does Saturday.

[bisket]

One of the most effective ways to get odds in these preps and the triple crown races is to be able to understand who's setting the pace over the actual times of the pace. Yeah these are grade 1 races, but most of the field in these races are allowance and claiming horses. The way Sierra Leon breezed on by the field told you he was a grade 1 horse. The others will be in allowance and listed stakes in a few months at best. When you see a horse like Epic Ride give it up, after having every advantage in the Battaglia, you have to pay attention to who's running with him in the stretch. When you see Track Phantom give it up in the stretch of a prep for the Louisiana Derby. You have to pay attention to who's running with him in that race, and the Louisiana Derby, while looking at who's passing him. Who was in control of the pace is as important as the time of the pace...

[rastajenk]

A couple of observations for the learned Mr. Larned:

Mage benefited considerably from the late scratch of Forte. There's still time for a heel bruise from stepping on a pin, or heat in some joint a couple of days out, so maybe Just a Touch can get lucky like Mage. I wouldn't wish that on his connections once, let alone 2 or 3 times, just saying.

Second, sounds like Brad Cox agrees with you: https://paulickreport.com/news/tripl...e-grass-second I could be sold on second-best in this year's field, but first I want to hear the opinion of our friend zico:

Originally Posted by zico20

Finally, I want to apologize to everyone who bet Timberlake, you really had no shot once I bet Cox. That won't ever happen again!

That's what is called at Twin Spires an angle.

[zico20]

I really don't see the similarities between these as far as talent goes. Just a Touch had the perfect trip in the Bluegrass chasing cheap speed where Mage circled the entire field in the Florida Derby. The Gotham can be down graded thanks to the pathetic effort by Deterministic. Sierra Leone blew by him like he was standing still.

I think a match race bet between Just a Touch and Stronghold would be the most interesting. I of course would take Stronghold as of right now he is my longshot pick after the top two. I think he is going to keep getting better.

How much fun will the Derby be if the judge rules in favor of Zedan. I would love to see Muth in the Derby. What about Imagination also! Damn the Derby could be a great race if those two got in.