Keeneland lowers DD takeout to 15% from 22%

[iamt]

I failed to account for tracks reporting a different base.... so the difference across the whole sample for 10 years is 10%... which is basically explained by the difference in number of combinations and nothing more. 10% in this case is not "much closer" in my mind.


Keeneland being closer will be a product of the slightly higher double takeout previously along with the fact it is a relatively small sample.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

This is how I am visualizing it.

Imagine 2 fields of 8.

The double is 1 out of 8 parlayed to 1 out of 8.

The exacta is kind of 1/8 (top horse) parlayed to 1 out of 7 (for 2nd) where the winner's probability/pool money is subtracted to get the probability/price of the 2nd horse.

I get your reasoning, but you can't assume every second leg of DD will have the same amount of horses as the first leg. Given 2 races with the same number of runners, I would agree.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

I get your reasoning, but you can't assume every second leg of DD will have the same amount of horses as the first leg.

Right, I was just trying to make the point that once you know the winner of the exacta, that's one less horse in the race that can come in 2nd.

Poindexter made the point better. There are fewer combinations.

[Andy Asaro]

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Last edited by Andy Asaro; 04-11-2024 at 08:14 AM.

[Poindexter]

5-Apr	5.47	20.24	110.71	58.62	63.72
5-Apr	88.98	135.44	12,051.45	11,605.31	12,614.47
6-Apr	13.79	35.49	489.41	572.26	622.02
6-Apr	45.98	16.17	743.50	367.69	399.66
6-Apr	22.38	7.45	166.73	138.39	150.42
7-Apr	33.44	15.56	520.33	493.12	536.00
7-Apr	19.94	28.88	575.87	596.62	648.50
10-Apr	9.97	9.87	98.40	84.35	91.68
10-Apr	26.06	6.59	171.74	128.10	139.24
11-Apr	11.31	10.22	115.59	125.32	136.22
11-Apr	39.96	19.2	767.23	666.56	724.52
12-Apr	6.93	4.38	30.35	25.78	28.02
12-Apr	14.29	6.94	99.17	115.17	125.18
13-Apr	92.88	42.13	3,913.03	1,841.64	2,001.78
13-Apr	18.89	105.24	1,987.98	2,309.99	2,510.86
			21,841.50	19,128.91	20,792.29

Okay, did not line up great, but you can get the point. Updated after todays races, the daily double parlays have actually paid more than the pick 4s. Largely in part to the whopper daily double parlay in the early pick 4 today. But just about every one is holding its own in payouts.

Just a reminder, each line from left to right is

1st dd, 2nd dd, dd parlay, pick 4 less 8% (which would be projected), $1 pick 4

The bottom line is the total of double parlays, total of projected and total pick 4

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

https://twitter.com/KeenelandJim/sta...65316062752938


https://twitter.com/jkgoose5/status/1778386828262793417

send it in to make up for it?

seriously?

[Poindexter]

This will be my final update as I think the sample size is pretty sufficient to show that the daily double parlays are definitely paying well relative to the pick 4's in the same races.

5-Apr	5.47	20.24	$110.71	$58.62	$63.72
5-Apr	88.98	135.44	$12,051.45	$11,605.31	$12,614.47
6-Apr	13.79	35.49	$489.41	$572.26	$622.02
6-Apr	45.98	16.17	$743.50	$367.69	$399.66
6-Apr	22.38	7.45	$166.73	$138.39	$150.42
7-Apr	33.44	15.56	$520.33	$493.12	$536.00
7-Apr	19.94	28.88	$575.87	$596.62	$648.50
10-Apr	9.97	9.87	$98.40	$84.35	$91.68
10-Apr	26.06	6.59	$171.74	$128.10	$139.24
11-Apr	11.31	10.22	$115.59	$125.32	$136.22
11-Apr	39.96	19.2	$767.23	$666.56	$724.52
12-Apr	6.93	4.38	$30.35	$25.78	$28.02
12-Apr	14.29	6.94	$99.17	$115.17	$125.18
13-Apr	92.88	42.13	$3,913.03	$1,841.64	$2,001.78
13-Apr	18.89	105.24	$1,987.98	$2,309.99	$2,510.86
14-Apr	7.98	46.46	$370.75	$341.36	$371.04
14-Apr	142.75	14.03	$2,002.78	$1,341.47	$1,458.12
17-Apr	88.2	10.35	$912.87	$789.36	$858.00
17-Apr	9.3	18.06	$167.96	$171.64	$186.56
18-Apr	7.14	29.16	$208.20	$276.37	$300.40
18-Apr	196.28	385.78	$75,720.90	$58,768.68	$63,879.00
19-Apr	31.09 350.98 $10,911.97 $13,761.25	$14,957.88
19-Apr	29	13.85	$401.65	$363.55	$395.16
20-Apr	13.54	32.46	$439.51	$288.48	$313.56
20-Apr	39.13	19.14	$748.95	$688.60	$748.48