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04-22-2019, 12:20 AM
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#781
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,133
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HONG KONG - SHA TIN MON- 4/22/19
Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
Im posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with 5 to be run on Turf and 5 on the Dirt:
(from top Class to bottom) - (4)-Class-3, (5)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5
Post Time Race #1 1:00 AM MON EST
Ive taken a look at the M/Ls in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
This mornings card looks wide open!
BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I cant make a Dutch Win bet Ill generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.
Good Luck if youre playing!
R#1- 1650M C4 (8.25F)D
7-2-4 W/ 3-12-10
1:00 AM
R#2- 1400M C5 (7F)T
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2-12-1 W/ 4-6-3 .
..1:30 AM
R#3 1400M C4 (7F)T..
. 5-1-3 W/ 2-12-9
..2:00 AM
R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)D..
. 4-7-1 W/ 8-6-11..
.2:30 AM
R#5- 1000M C3 (5F)T
... 9-13-2 W/ 5-7-11
3:00 AM
R#6- 1800M C4 (9F)T
... 10-2-7 W/ 14-6-11
3:35 AM
R#7 1600M C4 (8F)D
.. 4-7-1 W/ 6-5-9
.....4:05 AM
R#8- 1200M C3 (6F)D
2-5-3 W/ 9-7-4 .
.
.4:35 AM
R#9- 1200M C3 (6F)D..
10-11-2 W/ 3-5-1
.5:10 AM
R#10- 1400M C3 (7F)T... 1-13-3 W/ 4-9-11
..5:45 AM
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04-22-2019, 01:08 AM
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#782
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,133
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Quote:
R#1- 1650M C4 (8.25F)D
7-2-4 W/ 3-12-10
1:00 AM
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7-1-10-5 Big Dutch Win 109% Profit Margin/
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04-22-2019, 01:21 AM
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#783
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,133
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UPDATE: R#2- 1400M C5 (7F)T
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2-12-1 W/ 10-6-3 .
..1:30 AM
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04-22-2019, 01:39 AM
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#784
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,133
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Quote:
UPDATE: R#2- 1400M C5 (7F)T
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2-12-1 W/ 10-6-3 .
..1:30 AM
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3-2-4-6 Dutch Loss 105% Profit Margin/ $18.70 Quinella
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04-22-2019, 02:08 AM
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#785
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,133
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Quote:
R#3 1400M C4 (7F)T..
. 5-1-3 W/ 2-12-9
..2:00 AM
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1-12-4-3 Dutch Win 28% Profit Margin-Passed / $31.40 Quinella
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04-22-2019, 02:24 AM
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#786
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,133
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UPDATE: R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)D..
. 4-7-1 W/ 8-6-2..
.2:30
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04-22-2019, 02:39 AM
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#787
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,133
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Quote:
UPDATE: R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)D..
. 4-7-1 W/ 8-6-2..
.2:30 AM
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4-6-8-10 Big Dutch Win 101% Profit Margin/ $24.20 Quinella & $130.80 Triple / ALL of that one!
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04-22-2019, 03:09 AM
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#788
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,133
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Quote:
R#5- 1000M C3 (5F)T
... 9-13-2 W/ 5-7-11
3:00 AM
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9-11-2-5 Dutch Win 5% Profit Margin-Passed/ $13.20 Quinella & $143.20 Triple / ALL of that one!
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04-22-2019, 11:07 AM
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#789
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,133
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Quote:
R#6- 1800M C4 (9F)T
... 10-2-7 W/ 14-6-11
3:35 AM
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11-5-8-13 Dutch Loss 90% Profit Margin/
Quote:
R#7 1600M C4 (8F)D
.. 4-7-1 W/ 6-5-9
.....4:05 AM
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7-9-1-4 Dutch Win 20% Profit Margin-Passed / $335.30 Quinella & $2,396.60 Triple / ALL of that one!
Quote:
R#8- 1200M C3 (6F)D
2-5-3 W/ 9-7-4 .
.
.4:35 AM
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3-9-14-5 Big Dutch Win 181% Profit Margin / $29.10 Quinella
Quote:
R#9- 1200M C3 (6F)D..
10-11-2 W/ 3-5-1
.5:10 AM
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11-5-1-9 Dutch Win 38% Profit Margin-Passed / $41.10 Quinella & $485.20 Triple / ALL of that one!
Quote:
R#10- 1400M C3 (7F)T... 13-3-4 W/ 9-11-1 Subbed #4 (betting fav) w/#1 not much action
..5:45 AM
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4-2-12-3 Dutch Win 26% Profit Margin-Passed/
It turned out to be another profitable card. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 46% and came from hitting 3 of 5 playable races. Also hit were a number of decent Quinellas and Triples.
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04-23-2019, 11:28 PM
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#790
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Baton Rouge, La
Posts: 1,812
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Hong Kong Jockey Club at Happy Valley. April 24, 2019… 66th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 76 Degrees Clear 20% of rain Wind: S 5 to 10 mph.
Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good
Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190424_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings
Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 2 Perfect To Play (3-1) Ran a decent third in his last and picks up the services of ‘Magic Man’ Moreira, BUT he ran TWO days ago! In the 40 years I have been around the track I do not remember a horse running from the day before yesterday.
Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 447 (Winners: 6th, 9th & 11th, Second: 2nd)
Race 2 Victorious Leader (10-1)
Race 532 (Winners: 4th & 5th, Second: 1st)
Race 2 My Family (9-1)
Race 5 Gift Of Lifeline (even)
Race 490 (Winners: 8th & 9th, Second: 2nd)
Race 5 Golden Glory (25-1)
In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 Wealthy Fortune (16-1)
Race 5 Flying Monkey (13-1)
Race 5 Regency Darling (46-1)
Race 8 Fairy Twins (14-1)
Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 7 Happy Dragon (8-5)
Race 8 Frustrated (7-5)
Horses for courses running tonight:
None
Distance specialists running tonight:
None
Class specialists running tonight:
Race 8 Keep Moving (25-1)
Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 4 Jumbo Prize (5-2) His debut race for the Casper Fownes barn while getting the services of defending and leading rider Zac Purton, and with him on board the betting public unloaded on him sending him off as the 7-5 favourite. He broke well but heading into the short turn he started fighting Zac for the bit, and a tugging war commenced the entire backstretch. He was in tight going two wide in the turn then entering the stretch Purton moved him to the 5 path but his inexperience started to show and raced very green while caught up in traffic. He started to fade with 100 metres left but the most important aspect was Zac never really asked for him to run, a couple love taps on his shoulder and one whack on his hip but nothing other than that.
Race 6 Fat Turtle (3-1) He won his first try in Hong Kong in an all out battle with Split Of A Second after winning 3 out of 6 races in his homeland of Australia. In here he had two strikes against him before the gates opened, he drew the 13 hole and the undefeated Champion's Way for John Size. He broke well and went straight for the lead while being bothered by Leung on Gintoki who broke just outside him, it took Teetan 500 metres (halfway thru the turn) to get his position over to the rail. All the while this was going on Moreira was sitting and waiting to pounce on the chalk right behind the duel going on, he didn't have much for the winner but did dig in after he was passed, a nice effort considering the circumstances he had to endure. Hopefully he'll get a better draw and not that monster he had to face here next time out.
Race 8 Golden Dash (11-1) Went off as the second betting choice behind Voyage King, at the break he was a step slow then was bumped around by the favourite and eventual winner High Five losing a couple lengths to the field. Entering the stretch he was boxed in on the rail in the third flight behind the duel going on in the front end, mid-stretch he was very hesitant splitting the two front runners that were beginning to tire, then again didn’t want to go thru on the rail. Afterwards was passed in the stretch by two closers finishing less than two lengths off of them, not a bad finish considering that he severely bled in the race.
Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 4 Play Wise (7-1)
Race 5 Glittering Armour (10-1)
Race 7 Dynamic Eagle (6-1)
Key Plays:
Race 4 Jumbo Prize (5-2)
Race 7 Happy Dragon (8-5)
Longshots:
Race 2 You Have My Word (10-1)
Race 8 Golden Dash (11-1)
__________________
@ShaTinRacing
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04-24-2019, 12:35 AM
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#791
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,133
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HONG KONG HAPPY VALLEY - WED - 4/24/19
Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
Ive posted my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 8 races at Happy Valley all to be run on Turf:
(from top Class to bottom) - (3)-Class-3, (3)-Class-4, (2)-Class-5
Post Time Race #1 7:15 AM WED EST
Ive taken a look at the M/Ls in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I cant make a Dutch Win bet Ill generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined odds values of the selected entries add up to decent return.
Good Luck if youre playing!
R#1- 1200M C5 (6F)T..
6-8-1 W/ 7-12-10
...7:15 AM
R#2- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T
8-9-3 W/ 6-11-4
.
7:45 AM
R#31800M C5 (9F)T
....6-2-1 W/ 11-5-9
...8:15 AM
R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)T
...4-11-12 W/ 5-2-8
...8:45 AM
R#5- 1200M C4 (6F)T
.....3-6-4 W/ 5-12-8
.
9:15 AM
R#6- 1200M C3 (6F)T
....11-7-2 W/ 4-3-6
..9:45 AM
R#7 1800M C3 (9F)T
...2-5-8 W/ 7-10-1
..10:15 AM
R#8- 1000M C3 (5F)T
...6-9-12 W/ 1-4-11
..10:50 AM
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04-24-2019, 05:55 PM
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#792
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,133
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HONG KONG HAPPY VALLEY - WED - 4/24/19 RESULTS
Instead of just posting a line item with the Results I thought it might be of interest to see the Live Tote Analysis in action and how it impacts the preferred selections, especially since it was so productive today.
Quote:
R#1- 1200M C5 (6F)T..…6-8-2 W/ 7-12-10 – Subbed #2 (solid action) for #1 (out for ltd. action) …...7:15 AM
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2-6-12-9– Big Dutch Win 124% Profit Margin/ $45.30 Quinella & $351.60 Triple Bx / ALL of that one!
LIVE TOTE ANALYSIS – RACE #1:
Code:
Entry
VALUE
@4 MTP PICKS FIN
521 1 OUT
409 2 3 1
537 3
538 4
415 5
391 6 1 2
393 7 4
468 8 2
595 9 4
356 10 6
543 11
350 12 5 3
421 PAR
Quote:
R#2- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T…8-9-3 W/ 6-11-4 – Lots of Very Late heavy action on the Winner #6….…7:45 AM
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6-4-8-3– Dutch Loss 38% Profit Margin-Passed / $71.50 Quinella & $415.20 Triple Bx / ALL of that one!
LIVE TOTE ANALYSIS – RACE #2:
Code:
Entry
VALUE
@4 MTP PICKS FIN
554 1
462 2
274 3 3 4
471 4 6 2
638 5
338 6 4 1
534 7
284 8 1 3
387 9 2
498 10
436 11 5
704 12
349 PAR
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Quote:
R#3–1800M C5 (9F)T…....6-2-1 W/ 11-5-9 – Lots of late action on #3, #7, #9 & #11 …...8:15 AM
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6-5-3-10– Dutch Win 83% Profit Margin/ $47.10 Quinella
LIVE TOTE ANALYSIS – RACE #3:
Code:
Entry
VALUE
@4 MTP PICKS FIN
510 1 3
269 2 2
359 3 3
401 4
425 5 5 2
251 6 1 1
395 7
544 8
370 9 6
578 10 4
494 11 4
414 12
347 PAR
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Quote:
R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)T…...4-11-12 W/ 5-2-8 …...8:45 AM
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11-5-9-12– Dutch Win 97% Profit Margin/ $9.90 Quinella
LIVE TOTE ANALYSIS – RACE #4:
Code:
Entry
VALUE
@4 MTP PICKS FIN
353 1
419 2 5
386 3
501 4 1
246 5 4 2
806 6
716 7
498 8 6
438 9 3
743 10
219 11 2 1
464 12 3 4
322 PAR
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04-24-2019, 08:28 PM
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#793
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,133
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HONG KONG HAPPY VALLEY - WED - 4/24/19 RESULTS
Quote:
R#5- 1200M C4 (6F)T
.....3-6-4 W/ 5-12-8 No action on the Winner & Placer
.
9:15 AM
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7-1-3-8 Dutch Loss 43% Profit Margin - Passed/
LIVE TOTE ANALYSIS RACE #5:
Code:
Entry
VALUE
@4 MTP PICKS FIN
535 1 2
666 2
203 3 1 3
320 4 3
322 5 4
452 6 2
502 7 1
445 8 6 4
550 9
476 10
639 11
318 12 5
328 PAR
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Quote:
R#6- 1200M C3 (6F)T
....11-9-2 W/ 4-3-6 Subbed #9 (solid heavy action) for #7 (out for no action)
..9:45 AM
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9-2-3-12 Dutch Win 40% Profit Margin - Passed/ $19.70 Quinella & $351.60 Triple Bx / ALL of that one!
LIVE TOTE ANALYSIS RACE #6:
Code:
Entry
VALUE
@4 MTP PICKS FIN
717 1
213 2 3 2
471 3 5 3
351 4 4
863 5
463 6 6
463 7 out
469 8
356 9 2 1
431 10
340 11 1
422 12 4
339 PAR
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R#7 1800M C3 (9F)T
...2-10-8 W/ 7-5-1 - Subbed #10 (good action) for #5 (with ltd. action) But No action on the Huge Winner & Placer
..10:15 AM
12-6-2-10 Dutch Loss 66% Profit Margin/
LIVE TOTE ANALYSIS RACE #7:
Code:
Entry
VALUE
@4 MTP PICKS FIN
334 1 6
230 2 1 3
654 3
712 4
441 5 5
484 6 2
515 7 4
475 8 3
357 9
349 10 2 4
589 11
657 12 1
346 PAR
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Quote:
R#8- 1000M C3 (5F)T
...1-9-12 W/ 6-4-11 - Subbed #1 (solid heavy action on the Favorite) for #6 (with limited action)
..10:50 AM
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1-5-12-10 Dutch Win 28% Profit Margin - Passed/
LIVE TOTE ANALYSIS RACE #8:
Code:
Entry
VALUE
@4 MTP PICKS FIN
150 1 1 1
584 2
372 3
439 4 5
459 5 2
466 6 4
412 7
505 8
255 9 2
300 10 4
458 11 6
302 12 3 3
278 PAR
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It was another profitable card. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 55% and was produced from hitting 3 of 4 playable races. Also hit were a number of Quinellas with decent value.
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04-24-2019, 08:53 PM
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#794
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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YES!
It was a great and profitable card. I was able to make all the last minute substitutions and collect on the same wagers .
Can't wait until the next card.
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04-25-2019, 11:44 PM
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#795
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,133
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Overall Dutch Win Profit Margins thru 4/24/19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
After taking a look at the M/Ls in combination with the early odds and using a unique static tote analysis Im able to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks. The Top 3 have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins are higher ^ than 50%. If not the race becomes an automatic Pass.
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These are the documented results for the selections I've posted on PA for the last 66 race cards at both Sha Tin and Happy Valley. This is a continuation from page 32, post #474.
Code:
3-ENTRY DUTCH WIN RESULTS
PROFIT MARGINS
% %
DATE DAY SHA-TIN HAP-VALLEY
9/2/18 SUN 41
9/5/18 WED 73
9/9/18 SUN 34
9/12/18 WED 98
9/16/18 SUN CANCELLED
9/19/18 WED CANCELLED
9/22/18 SAT -44 (YIELDING)
9/26/18 WED 62
10/1/18 MON 41
10/3/18 WED 65
10/7/18 SUN 78
10/10/18 WED 25
10/13/18 SAT 43
10/18/18 WED 82
10/21/18 SAT 52
10/24/18 WED 36
10/28/18 SUN -13
10/31/18 WED 25
11/4/18 SUN -2
11/7/18 WED 34
11/10/18 SAT 75
11/14/18 WED 98
11/18/18 SUN 45
11/21/18 WED 47
11/25/18 SUN 30
11/28/18 WED 42
12/2/18 SUN 66
12/5/18 WED 75
12/9/18 SUN 0
12/12/18 WED 58
12/15/18 SAT 37
12/19/18 WED 0
12/23/18 SUN 81
12/26/18 WED 30
12/29/18 SUN -25
1/1/19 WED 65
1/6/19 SUN 53
1/9/19 WED 8
1/12/19 SAT 39
1/16/19 WED 146
1/20/19 SUN -45
1/23/19 WED 40
1/27/19 SUN 51
1/30/19 WED 66
2/2/19 SUN 0
2/7/19 THURS 44
2/10/19 SUN 65
2/13/19 WED 63
2/17/19 SUN 47
2/20/19 WED 85
2/24/19 SUN 68
2/27/19 WED 41
3/2/19 SAT 3
3/6/19 WED 89
3/10/19 SUN 67
3/13/19 WED 39
3/17/19 SUN 68
3/20/19 WED 57
3/24/19 SUN 26
3/27/19 WED 155
3/31/19 SUN 31
4/3/19 WED 10
4/7/19 SUN 51
4/10/19 WED 54
4/14/19 SUN -26
4/17/19 WED -38
4/22/19 MON 46
4/24/19 WED 55
SHA-TIN HAP-VALLEY
TOTAL AVG PROFIT 34 56
TOTAL AVG PROFIT BOTH TRKS 45
TOTAL FOR 66 RACE DAYS
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Some have inquired as to what my motivation is for posting on this thread. As one can imagine, I thoroughly enjoy the racing in Hong Kong. I have no problem sharing my selections from the sophisticated tote analysis I use. Im certainly not giving away any of its intricate operational features for obvious reasons. Also I enjoy proving a point (particularly to those who scoff at the idea of following the flow of money): That there are other ways to beat this game besides using any one of a myriad of handicapping techniques. Whats most important to me is being able to use a simple betting scheme that consistently produces some very enticing results. I hope that perhaps there are some who also enjoy following along this successful journey by taking advantage of many opportunities.
Good Luck!
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