Anything out there like this?

[Maximillion]

Cheers all,

Im a long time pencil and paper player looking to possibly buy his first software....

What interests me most im guessing may not be available but i thought id take a stab here.....what im looking for....

example

horse A 6f 47.4 1.13.3

horse B 6f 44.4 1.10.4

horse C 6F 46.4 1.11.4


Lets say these are all 5k claimers running on 3 different tracks who all earned the same beyer sf and all earned the same "pace" "figure(by any "pace" figure rating)

What im looking for is this...any software that can then "convert" these actual fractional times(of the race,independent of the horses) to a "hypothetical" racetrack for comparitive purposes..

example,these same horses(or races) become...

horse A 46.1 1.11.4

horse B 45.4 1.11.0

horse C 45.4 1.10.4


These would be the actual converted fractional times of the race at a "nuetral track"...I know speed and pace figures for a race would essentially be the same thing but for myself.....my own style of play, the "actual times" would register in my mind clearer than a "figure"...I know this would be near impossible for turf races but was wondering if any software is available that resembles anything at all close to what i have posted here...(hopefully it makes sense)


cheers

[Speed Figure]

Fast capper from http://www.cynthiapublishing.com was very good at this. You could manually input each horses paceline and the program would compare it to the par times for the race class level. "The Capper" from netcapper does this too!

[dukeofperl]

IMO, what you need is to hire a programmer to develop a custom program -- (if within your means of course).

From what I see of your requirements, the actual coding would not be much of a challenge for a seasoned programmer including complete automation where you need not enter any data manually ... the program should be able to do it all by using whatever data you supply as input. (BRIS, PTS etc)

However, speaking from experience, there are challenges involved with the logic that would drive this type of program.

First you will need a set of pars that are considered reliable, something along the lines of HorseStreet Pars (FYI: I have no interest in HorseStreet pars company) or pars of similar accuracy.

Next you will need some sense of class differences between tracks, again, considered reliable.

Finally, you will need some sense of the differences between the surfaces of each track and how to adjust your figures accordingly.

All that said ... here's the tough part (IMO only). Once you arm yourself with all these charts, how much weight do you give to each of these adjustments and at what point do you know you have met the comfort-threshold that each of your applications are as accurate and as tight as possible or at least good enough to be meaningful.

To expand that thought a bit ... when you make any kind of adjustment to a pace line, how do you know the adjustment was ACTUALLY based on track surface difference or class or luck or trainer intent or jockey shenanigans or track bias or bad/good ride or whatever -- regardless of the name or the intent of each chart.

The answer is "you don't know". But that does not make your adjustments useless. It just introduces (better said as "keeps alive") the unknown factors that are inherent in handicapping.

My point and something I've learned over time (often the hard way) ... I learned to work with numbers and adjustments just as they are, with little thought for fine-tuning and 2nd-guessing. The opportunities for fine-tuning will eventually surface and that is when I tackle them. Otherwise, too much rocket science has me chasing my tail. Not fun.

With that in mind, if I was using the data as you presented and considering I could live with an unknown accuracy factor, I would definitely have it running in a no-brainer program. No pencils allowed.

Just my 2 cents

[Light]

dukeofperl

Actually your program has the potential to answer all the things you said you needed a "programmer" for. With extra categories your program can

A) create pars for each track

B) see class differences between tracks

C) where to adjust for differences between tracks

It's just a suggestion, totally up to you. For example when your program says it has x number of samples on the main dirt and the average final time is Y,that really is not specific enough to work with because you don't know what percentage of the y figure is from fillies,males,2yo's maidens,allowance horses etc. So you cannot do accurate comparisons between class levels between track to track,unless you isolate a class. Isolating the average time of a particular distance, class,sex and age is the foundation to making track pars and variants.

[dukeofperl]

Originally Posted by Light

dukeofperl

Actually your program has the potential to answer all the things you said you needed a "programmer" for. With extra categories your program can

A) create pars for each track

B) see class differences between tracks

C) where to adjust for differences between tracks

It's just a suggestion, totally up to you. For example when your program says it has x number of samples on the main dirt and the average final time is Y,that really is not specific enough to work with because you don't know what percentage of the y figure is from fillies,males,2yo's maidens,allowance horses etc. So you cannot do accurate comparisons between class levels between track to track,unless you isolate a class. Isolating the average time of a particular distance, class,sex and age is the foundation to making track pars and variants.

I agree light.

What stops me from creating professional track pars is ... that has already been done and done well. There are several choices for off-the-shelf pars.

As a side point, I will never believe that pars or any type of adjustment chart is totally accurate (beyond the math itself). Surely errors, misjudgements, and lack of understanding creep in, resulting in direct flaws or skewing the results as a minimum.

[Light]

Definitely the benefit of using pars lies in the skill of the user. I just suggested that your program has the potential to answer the question of the thread starter.

[dukeofperl]

Originally Posted by Light

Definitely the benefit of using pars lies in the skill of the user. I just suggested that your program has the potential to answer the question of the thread starter.

understood

thanks