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11-05-2016, 09:22 PM
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#301
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,986
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Let's not get too carried away now....
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Carried away - nothing!
I guess you guys aren't used to 1/2 million dollar Win pools. In Hong Kong they're 4X that on any given race.
Do you know what kind of money it takes to knock the odds down even 1 point with that size pool. I doubt Arrogate dropping to 8/5 was caused by bunch of $2 bettors!
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11-05-2016, 09:26 PM
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#302
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loose on the lead
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: mosquito cove NY
Posts: 6,604
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Let's not get too carried away now....
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I took a beating but damn this was great weekend of racing, Arrogate is the real deal, hope he keeps running at least another year
__________________
radio friendly unit shifter
Last edited by Alwaysonpoint36; 11-05-2016 at 09:28 PM.
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11-05-2016, 09:28 PM
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#303
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,650
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Nitro
Carried away - nothing!
I guess you guys aren't used to 1/2 million dollar Win pools. In Hong Kong they're 4X that on any given race.
Do you know what kind of money it takes to knock the odds down even 1 point with that size pool. I doubt Arrogate dropping to 8/5 was caused by bunch of $2 bettors!
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Yeah, it's because Arrogate was an overlay and CC was an underlay and the last minute wise guys and computer betting teams knew it as much as I did when I posted Arrogate on my line at 7/5.
Stop with your ridiculous condescending retorts "oh I guess you're not used to multi million dollar win pools."
Look, you're talking to a guy who wrote programs to monitor, chart and analyze betting pools and try and create wagers based solely on the money and the action of the pools. I wasn't successful, but I've done it and I'm in your corner. I'm not a naysayer...so relax.
I believe you.
And the win pool was over $5 million last time I saw it, not half a million....
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11-05-2016, 09:44 PM
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#304
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 2,053
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
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all i'm saying saying a 6 mill race i don't need my jockey looking back 3 separate times on a champion horse like hes a 10k claimer..with that pace..should of emptied the tank..if you listen to Victor after the race he admits he shit the bed
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11-05-2016, 09:49 PM
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#305
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,986
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Yeah, it's because Arrogate was an overlay and CC was an underlay and the last minute wise guys and computer betting teams knew it as much as I did when I posted Arrogate on my line at 7/5.
Stop with your ridiculous condescending retorts "oh I guess you're not used to multi million dollar win pools."
Look, you're talking to a guy who wrote programs to monitor, chart and analyze betting pools and try and create wagers based solely on the money and the action of the pools. I wasn't successful, but I've done it and I'm in your corner. I'm not a naysayer...so relax.
I believe you.
And the win pool was over $5 million last time I saw it, not half a million....
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Yes you're correct, I meant to say that the pool opened at 1/2 million and that Arrogate opened at 2/1 and stayed there until 5 mins to post even with all the money pouring in on Chrome.
I didn't realize that you were a tote watcher. Good for you! You should go back to the drawing board, because it'll be well worth the effort! 
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11-05-2016, 09:51 PM
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#306
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Bakersfield, CA
Posts: 1,791
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by no breathalyzer
all i'm saying saying a 6 mill race i don't need my jockey looking back 3 separate times on a champion horse like hes a 10k claimer..with that pace..should of emptied the tank..if you listen to Victor after the race he admits he shit the bed
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Emptied the tank when? On the backstretch in a 10 furlong race?
Chrome is not Game on Dude or Bayern type, he is a blaster. He blasts at the top of the stretch. Letting him go any faster than he needs to might compromise that blast.
He got beat today just like Shared Belief beat him, a horse good enough to withstand the cannon blast and keep coming.
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11-05-2016, 10:10 PM
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#307
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by SharpCat
Was thinking the same thing too. To beat Chrome in only his 6th career start how good is Arrogate. Maybe at least people will stop the foolish talk about Chrome being better than Cigar.
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Holy Bull needed a tow truck at the end of a 1 1/4 mile race. These two horses got the last quarter mile in 24 and change.
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11-05-2016, 10:15 PM
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#308
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
PS. Taking NOTHING away from CC...that race just shows how AWESOME this horse is...
IMO, Arrogate should be HOY...
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I agree Arrogate is HOTY.
I'm very sad that the modern sport values a couple of big performances over a 4 year long career, but that's how it works now. I love CC and, let's say, don't really love Arrogate. But Arrogate won the race and ran great.
I expect Arrogate to never run again, BTW. He has his breeding value.
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11-05-2016, 10:18 PM
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#309
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,650
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dilanesp
Holy Bull needed a tow truck at the end of a 1 1/4 mile race. These two horses got the last quarter mile in 24 and change.
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Context my man. Context.
Watch that Travers race again. Watch the rabbit that pushed Bull...what did he run that first six furlongs in? Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaattttttttttt??
And he still won...held off Concern who just sat WAY back off the wicked early pace...oh, and Concern goes on to win the BC Classic that year...
Yeah, Holy Bull was some half-rate lucky bastard...
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11-05-2016, 10:20 PM
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#310
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 881
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dilanesp
I expect Arrogate to never run again, BTW. He has his breeding value.
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What would lead you to believe that?
They raced Frankel as 4yo, and they had every excuse to retire him after his 3yo season.
Btw, O'Rourke, the Juddmonte spokensman, said in a post race press conference that plans were to race Arrogate next year.
Last edited by nearco; 11-05-2016 at 10:22 PM.
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11-05-2016, 10:22 PM
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#311
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by nearco
What would lead you to believe that?
They raced Frankel as 4yo, and they had every excuse to retire him after his 3yo season.
Btw, O'Rourke, the Juddmonte spokensman, said in a post race press conference that plans were to race him next year.
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Oh fun. We get to look forward to, what, another 3 races?
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11-05-2016, 10:23 PM
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#312
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 881
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Damn, the cynicism is high in this one.
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11-05-2016, 10:24 PM
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#313
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Context my man. Context.
Watch that Travers race again. Watch the rabbit that pushed Bull...what did he run that first six furlongs in? Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaattttttttttt??
And he still won...held off Concern who just sat WAY back off the wicked early pace...oh, and Concern goes on to win the BC Classic that year...
Yeah, Holy Bull was some half-rate lucky bastard... |
He also ran in the Derby and couldn't get the 10 furlongs.
Other than the Travers, all of his big wins were at shorter sistances- Concern ONLY came that close at 1 1/4 miles because the Bull was less effective.
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11-05-2016, 10:26 PM
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#314
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by nearco
Damn, the cynicism is high in this one.
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Look how he campaigned in 2016.
You know Coburn had a point at the Belmont. Chrome's nemisises were all horses who ran a lot less than he did.
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11-05-2016, 10:30 PM
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#315
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 881
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dilanesp
Look how he campaigned in 2016.
You know Coburn had a point at the Belmont. Chrome's nemisises were all horses who ran a lot less than he did.
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He's a big slow developing 3yo. Still looks like a big baby out there. Makes sense that he was campaigned the way he was. Horses are individuals.
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