Calculating exotics payoffs

[dukeofperl]

A forum search didn't find an existing thread that addresses calculating exotics payoffs (at least not with that search pattern) so I'll start a fresh thread.

I have a few questions for the forum and for the purpose of simplicity, I would like to focus this discussion on Super-Fectas (SF).

1) Does anyone have any experience in coding a program (the language doesn't matter) that calculates the payoffs for SF?

2) Does anyone know of any existing code that calculates SF payoffs that I could leverage?

3) What would I use for the basis? The W-P-S odds? The SF pool itself? Something else? All the above?

4) My gut says such a program would not be entirely accurate due to factors such as the track-take, late minute action and so forth. What would be a reasonable degree of accuracy for such a program?

5) Does anyone have the fundamental math for calculating SF payoffs? (regardless of the basis).

Your comments are welcome and appreciated.

Thanks, Duke

[davew]

You can only calculate pay-offs by knowing how much is bet on the combination and total bet in the pool (knowing track take-out for this bet), and not even sure if you can do that with NET POOLS between US and Canadian tracks.

Many people have used estimated pay-off formulas, but they are rarely accurate.

[dukeofperl]

Originally Posted by davew

You can only calculate pay-offs by knowing how much is bet on the combination and total bet in the pool (knowing track take-out for this bet), and not even sure if you can do that with NET POOLS between US and Canadian tracks.

Many people have used estimated pay-off formulas, but they are rarely accurate.

Thanks davew -- I suspected there would be accuracy problems just not sure to what degree.

[MightBeSosa]

Not hard to do using the win odds, but the variance around 'expected value' would be gigantic.

What use would you put this to? Easy enough to figure expected super payoffs, they come in only three sizes, small, large, and damn.

[vegasone]

Probably the best way to estimate the value of an exotic is thru past history with a database of closing odds and actual payoffs.

Exactas are easiest even by guesstimating from actual experience.

[dhcPlayer]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/a...p/t-45134.html

[raybo]

Duke,

While you might somehow come up with a mathematical formula to estimate superfecta payouts, it would undoubtedly be grossly inaccurate.

There are just too many variables, some of which are estimations in themselves, such as average pool sizes, at every track (they all differ), and even an average is not good enough because individual races on a card can mess with those averages, what class of race it is, what the field size is, where on the card it falls, etc..

On top of that, which combination of horses are you going to project a payout for? There are as many payout possibilities as there are finishing combinations, although some combinations will have similar payoffs.

Then you have to have a good feel of how players play at each track you play. Some tracks have fewer knowledgeable superfecta players than others, for example. Some tracks have super players that structure larger tickets, because of the larger average superfecta pools. Etc..

The best way I have found to estimate super payouts is through experience at a particular track, and having looked at thousands of payouts, corresponding to odds rankings, rather than odds values. The rankings allow much more accurate projections than do actual odds values. So, you might do well to start there, with the rankings of the odds. Then on a particular superfecta ticket, project what the lowest 4 odds rankings on your ticket should pay. Once you have that estimated then you will know whether or not to play the super in the first place. If that minimum expected payout is high enough, for your hit rate, then it is a play, and all other combinations will almost always pay more than that one, if the minimum is too low then you pass. That's my method, anyway, and it has worked well for me for many years.

[dukeofperl]

Thanks for all the replies (and the link dhcPlayer).

My intent is (was) to put together a program that calculates exotics based on the wps odds.

However, as I suspected, and many people have pointed out, there are just too many variables and unknowns to allow for accuracy that is acceptable.

I think the best approach, as mentioned by vegasone, is a db of known payoffs vs. closing wps odds ... an idea I might entertain and one that might narrow things down finer than small-large-damn! (thanks for the laugh MightBeSosa -- I needed it ).

And I agree raybo, experience trumps all and having been a railbird for 50 years, I probably should already know how to do this in my head.


Thanks again