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04-05-2021, 06:02 PM
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#76
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
Mah 4 coming up now... gotta think the will get hammered down from 2:1.
6/5?? even money?
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So yea he went from 2:1 to 1 "even money" in the last two minutes (I didn't watch the loading and gate odds, just checked in after the race to see vs. this post)
seems like a steep drop, but it was clear from the multi-race odds models that he'd drop to 6:5 or evens. Was a pretty obvious situation.
When there are no multis, I'm much less 'in the know'.
Certainly helps a great deal to actually know the circuit and handicap the race, and have your own opinions.
One thing I wonder (along with the 'Jackpot P6 non-Mandatory' days), is whether any CAW players have access to blind pools. Like a P3 or P5 that 'overlaps' one of these races without any incoming/outgoing multis.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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04-05-2021, 10:07 PM
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#77
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,668
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
So yea he went from 2:1 to 1 "even money" in the last two minutes (I didn't watch the loading and gate odds, just checked in after the race to see vs. this post)
seems like a steep drop, but it was clear from the multi-race odds models that he'd drop to 6:5 or evens. Was a pretty obvious situation.
When there are no multis, I'm much less 'in the know'.
Certainly helps a great deal to actually know the circuit and handicap the race, and have your own opinions.
One thing I wonder (along with the 'Jackpot P6 non-Mandatory' days), is whether any CAW players have access to blind pools. Like a P3 or P5 that 'overlaps' one of these races without any incoming/outgoing multis.
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A couple of observations about that race: Primarily, $8.60 was an incredible overlay on a winner who seemed guaranteed a lone lead. And his failure to accelerate last start was excusable as he got a tentative (at best) send as stablemate Spectacular Road, a very fast speed-ball, went to the lead. But to know this required some expertise and a devoted awareness of how past Mahoning races have played out.
Another factor that promoted (extremely) underlaid odds on the rail-horse occurs not infrequently at Mvr as the bias-hungry "wise guys" jump too fast to manufacture some extreme surface- trend. In fact, as I've said numerous times, real value can be found in middle races at Mahoning by playing a tad contrarian to the "smart money's" often premature conclusions about the grain. And in this case, watching the 1-horse win the previous race by a pole was more than enough to send the bias crowd into a feeding frenzy.
Last edited by mountainman; 04-05-2021 at 10:14 PM.
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04-11-2021, 11:13 AM
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#78
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,610
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If I was trying to find evidence of past posting I would focus more on speed horses that were bet heavily but missed the beak.
Did they drift up on the last flash more often than some control group?
Did they drift in the opposite direction from what the Will Pays suggested?
Unless you think "The Russians" are hacking into our pools and actually changing bets and time stamps (in between rigging our elections ), it's more likely someone has the ability to past post for just long enough to see the start and first 70 yards or so and then can either enter or cancel a bet depending on that incremental information.
There's a history of that kind of thing in harness racing and I personally experienced it on a new site about 10-12 years ago. I reported it to the site and it was fixed.
The concern is that there are obviously some brilliant people out there capable of all sorts of hacks, there's a lot of money at stake, and I suspect the security for our antiquated betting systems is probably not at the level it should be. So people are justifiably going to be suspicious even when what they are observing could have an easy and satisfactory explanation. Someone with a lot of extra time on their hands should actually study it.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 04-11-2021 at 11:14 AM.
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04-13-2021, 02:29 PM
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#79
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,668
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Far beyond " unhappy" at ride from 2 jock race four mvr. Steaming. Cost me great score.
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04-13-2021, 04:09 PM
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#80
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,668
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Waited patiently to make big move on 3 horse in finale. Find it terrifying that late money could so decisively ferret her out.
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04-13-2021, 04:22 PM
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#81
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman
Waited patiently to make big move on 3 horse in finale. Find it terrifying that late money could so decisively ferret her out.
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She figured to get a good setup on paper, and a nice work tab since the layoff, but I have to think that someone close to the horse felt she was thriving and well-meant.
Wasn't bet down in other pools.
Wasn't any kind of projected lone speed or something.
Someone bet $1-2k late.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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04-13-2021, 05:08 PM
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#82
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,668
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
She figured to get a good setup on paper, and a nice work tab since the layoff, but I have to think that someone close to the horse felt she was thriving and well-meant.
Wasn't bet down in other pools.
Wasn't any kind of projected lone speed or something.
Someone bet $1-2k late.
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No past posting suspected. Not after she missed the break a bit. Her return race found her a bit wide on an extreme pro-rail track while chasing a pair of very talented males. However today's race was going to unfold, she is just tons the best.
Last edited by mountainman; 04-13-2021 at 05:10 PM.
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04-13-2021, 08:46 PM
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#83
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,121
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman
Far beyond " unhappy" at ride from 2 jock race four mvr. Steaming. Cost me great score.
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Watched this race when you posted it. Just watched it again, this time with another handicapper. His, as well my response was, "WTF was that???".
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04-13-2021, 09:03 PM
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#84
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman
Far beyond " unhappy" at ride from 2 jock race four mvr. Steaming. Cost me great score.
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i remember a few years ago when Angel Stanley rode a fair amount of races at the Mount one season, I sort of thought he was decent and betable...but without outwardly saying it i could tell you werent a fan of his LOL (and ever since i lowered my opinion of him)
Last edited by teach21; 04-13-2021 at 09:05 PM.
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04-13-2021, 10:02 PM
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#85
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2018
Location: Huntington Beach, Ca
Posts: 554
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
Watched this race when you posted it. Just watched it again, this time with another handicapper. His, as well my response was, "WTF was that???".
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He did drop the whip at the sixteenth pole
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04-13-2021, 10:07 PM
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#86
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,668
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuffdaddy
He did drop the whip at the sixteenth pole
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Amongst other sins.
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04-13-2021, 10:32 PM
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#87
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2018
Location: Huntington Beach, Ca
Posts: 554
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman
Amongst other sins.
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I watched with interest, when a jocks ride alone costs a big score, it is a tough pill to swallow.
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04-13-2021, 11:21 PM
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#88
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,668
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuffdaddy
I watched with interest, when a jocks ride alone costs a big score, it is a tough pill to swallow.
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Because of covid, I kept a stated vow last year to not criticize any rider. I'll probably bite my lip (until it bleeds) again this year. But that applies only to the show.
Tx for taking the time to watch the race.
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04-13-2021, 11:23 PM
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#89
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,668
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teach21
i remember a few years ago when Angel Stanley rode a fair amount of races at the Mount one season, I sort of thought he was decent and betable...but without outwardly saying it i could tell you werent a fan of his LOL (and ever since i lowered my opinion of him)
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A decent, hard-working guy. And I wish him all the luck. Just not a fan of his riding.
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04-13-2021, 11:24 PM
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#90
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,668
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
Watched this race when you posted it. Just watched it again, this time with another handicapper. His, as well my response was, "WTF was that???".
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Tx to both of you for taking the time, Jay.
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