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Old 05-08-2021, 08:14 AM   #1
coljesep
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Beginner Advice?

hey all, I've been on the boards for a while - have tried many different sites/software... nothing really has stuck for me, but I'm probably to blame for that. But I have felt like I expect results from those sites/software that are probably unfair expectations.

I'm looking to play over weekends probably, and just start to "play" for the sake of learning my own way.

So my question is, where would you send a new player to get the most affordable useful information for upcoming races?

I know we all have our different methods, and I'm the type of player that feels I need as much information as I can get to determine what information I find useful to use moving forward.

I'm open to all suggestions.
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Old 05-08-2021, 10:00 AM   #2
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I'll throw my 2 cents in here and you can take it for what it's worth. What are your expectations? Everyone wants to make a profit, but if you believe in old adages only 5% of players do. Being a weekend warrior also limits your chances for success because long-term some of the best plays can come during the week. What kind of information are you looking for? If you just want to look at all kinds of data (speed, pace, trainer stats, etc.) there are several ways to get that. Someone else here can confirm, but I was under the impression that DRF Formulator gives the player a shit-ton of info that can be examined 6 ways to Sunday. But be careful of information overload.

If you have already tried software then you are not really a beginner (unless you purchased a bunch of crap programs). There is no magic software out there for sale if that's what you're looking for. None. That is not to say that there isn't very good software available, but you have to find a program that feels right to you (i.e. has the information you want, and presents it in an easy-to-use way). However, the top-level programs all require a significant investment of time to use properly. Don't waste your money on these programs unless you can put in the time to learn how to take advantage of their strengths and features. Do a search in the software section here if you are looking for users' opinions about a particular program. I am confident that there is a program or two available to fit your needs. If you are looking for a "black box", forget it. But if you are looking for a tool that reduces the amount of time to do certain handicapping steps, calculations or spot plays, they are out there.

As far as where to go for information it depends on what you are seeking. Pace Advantage has plenty of smart handicappers, and there are threads here with very useful information. (It won't take long for you to see who knows his/her stuff, and who is full of shit.) If you decide to go the software route, check the forums for that particular program before you buy. See how helpful the programmer and users are. Some forums aren't very helpful, but some have members who want to help others.

And I almost forgot the obvious -- if you don't know the basics of handicapping then you have to read at least some of the classics. I think you're probably past that point, but you did ask for beginner advice and it's important to have a solid foundation. If you have already read the classics, there are probably more specialized books that you haven't read. Buy one or two and spend some time absorbing the concepts. Even if you don't agree with the author, there usually is an idea or two worth investigating.
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Old 05-08-2021, 10:39 AM   #3
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Old 05-08-2021, 11:22 AM   #4
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Take up poker
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Old 05-08-2021, 11:29 AM   #5
Robert Fischer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coljesep View Post
hey all, I've been on the boards for a while - have tried many different sites/software... nothing really has stuck for me, but I'm probably to blame for that. But I have felt like I expect results from those sites/software that are probably unfair expectations.

I'm looking to play over weekends probably, and just start to "play" for the sake of learning my own way.

So my question is, where would you send a new player to get the most affordable useful information for upcoming races?

I know we all have our different methods, and I'm the type of player that feels I need as much information as I can get to determine what information I find useful to use moving forward.

I'm open to all suggestions.
I enjoy the TimeformUS stuff. With the monthly package, you get unlimited use of their charts.

Prior to the TfUS I was using a bunch of different free resources.

there is the bris-watch service which offers free pps for a list of major trainers and sires.

there is the equibase historical chart and equibase horse profile library that can be googled or site-searched. (equibase entries as well)

replays are often free with ADW usage


The free ones are fine.

The advantage for me is that there is much less various clicking and hunting and typing and opening multiple windows in order to handle past-performances, charts and replays.
Also nice to have every PP available (rather than about 50-75%).

This means I'm not completely burned out before the races even start from doing so much 'computing', and that I'm less likely to not-find, or not bother with ideas to look into.

The pace projector is also a nice graphical resource to have to both see a model, and to see a general graphic representation and form your own opinions.

It sounds like you have some ideas and methods, but I want to mention, that in line with the general topic of this post - Spend some time wrapping your brain around how a parimutuel system works. Spend some time gaining a general understanding of the major things that tend to drive outcomes of horse races, as well as differences between different surfaces/distances/track-config/and various biases. Spend some time with some of the specialized branches of handicapping (such as pace, speed, class, race watching, etc...). - There is a good foundation of knowledge that already exists in the game, as well as room to be creative and learn as you go.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 05-08-2021 at 11:34 AM.
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Old 05-08-2021, 01:05 PM   #6
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A) learn the basics by reading some books or tutorials on the net
B) stick to one circuit (NY, Fla, Cali...whatever) and learn the horses, jocks & trainers
C) start off by making win bets...avoid the exotics
D) don't play any of my selections I post on this site

Best of luck
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Old 05-08-2021, 01:53 PM   #7
Jeff P
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Keep Records

Create a simple WagerHistory database or spreadsheet.

Then key in your tickets at the end of each race day.

You can also paper trade - and key in your virtual tickets at the end of each race day - until you're ready to start betting actual money.

Imo, at a minimum - attributes worth recording are Track, Surface, Dist, Class_Level, Track_Condition, Wager_Type, Amt_Wagered, Amt_Collected, and a Reason_Code that describes the reason you made each bet in the first place.

After a while you'll have a small WagerHistory database.

And you'll be in a position to analyze the data.

At that point - if you break the data out by your Reason_Codes:

You'll have the ability to see your own strengths and weaknesses as a player.

From there, you should be able to cut back on bets made for reasons you thought were good - but the data suggests otherwise.

You'll also be in a position to scale up bets made for reasons you thought were just so so - but the data suggests could be overlooked in the odds.

It's a bit of added work.

But Imo, if you want to improve as a player:

WagerHistory analysis is one of the basics.


-jp

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Last edited by Jeff P; 05-08-2021 at 01:58 PM.
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Old 05-08-2021, 03:42 PM   #8
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Open a modest account with an ADW outfit where you can excess the day's past-performances for the price of a single minimum bet. If you have any handicapping skills at all, this will be as close to getting free past-performances as you can get. Once you open your ADW account, you will be able to access as much handicapping informormation as you can tolerate. Check the past-performances...view the replays...track your make-believe bets...it's all out there for the asking. Just have patience...and don't be too quick to start "betting for profit".
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Old 05-08-2021, 03:54 PM   #9
46zilzal
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PLAY on paper before frustration gets to you
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Old 05-08-2021, 07:50 PM   #10
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PLAY on paper before frustration gets to you
AND when you start out: KEEP IT SIMPLE. Don't waste money during your education. Early on the problem is always you don't KNOW what there is TO KNOW

I found over the years, SO MANY interesting folks quit, out of frustration, long before they achieved a level of confidence that allow them to actually play with real money.

Winning at the Races: Dr. William Quirin, Modern Pace Handicapping Brohamer,, The Race is Pace Huey Mahl will get you started
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Old 05-08-2021, 08:41 PM   #11
coljesep
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Thanks to everyone so far. Lots of great insight.

I tried TimeFormUS today for the first time ever per the recommendation above and looking through PA forums to see people like CJ and others consistently talk about it.

I played Santa Anita only.

R1: 5 -2
R2: 7 +8
R3: 4 +4.40
R4: 5 -2
R5: 4 -2
R7: 6 +13.40
R8: 3 +18.20
R9: 10 -2

I only did win bets, like I said - just trying to dip in slowly here.

Obviously not expecting this good of a day all the time, but nice to have this result for sure.
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Old 05-08-2021, 09:28 PM   #12
46zilzal
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coljesep View Post
Thanks to everyone so far. Lots of great insight.

I tried TimeFormUS today for the first time ever per the recommendation above and looking through PA forums to see people like CJ and others consistently talk about it.


Obviously not expecting this good of a day all the time, but nice to have this result for sure.
having a NORTH AMERICAN calculate Timeform is a big step forward
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Old 05-09-2021, 03:55 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by 46zilzal View Post
having a NORTH AMERICAN calculate Timeform is a big step forward
It's all CJ, makes no difference where he's from.
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Old 05-09-2021, 09:22 AM   #14
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Quote:
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It's all CJ, makes no difference where he's from.
That comment was addressed to being someone UBIASED from he Timeform rules of Europe
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Old 05-09-2021, 09:24 AM   #15
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wrong post
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