Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL**


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 06-03-2018, 07:48 AM   #1
Blenheim
Race Player
 
Blenheim's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Home of the brave.
Posts: 1,044
" . . . we need Justify to wake up on the wrong side of the bed . . . "

Pletcher pays a fine compliment to Justify and his connections in this Handicapper's Edge article: http://www.brisnet.com/content/2018/...elmont-stakes/
__________________
Nothing endures but change.
- Heraclitus 535-475 BC

Blenheim is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-04-2018, 06:46 AM   #2
Fager Fan
Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,222
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blenheim View Post
Pletcher pays a fine compliment to Justify and his connections in this Handicapper's Edge article: http://www.brisnet.com/content/2018/...elmont-stakes/
Every prior horse who won the first 2 legs in the past three decades was thought to be unbeatable in the third leg. That proved untrue for all but one.
Fager Fan is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-04-2018, 06:51 AM   #3
clicknow
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fager Fan View Post
Every prior horse who won the first 2 legs in the past three decades was thought to be unbeatable in the third leg. That proved untrue for all but one.
This is why capping the Belmont Stakes is an entirely different exercize than looking at PPs for prep stakes races, and even the KY Derby or Preakness. Using the latter approach, Justify towers (actually sky-scrapers ) over this field---by a huge margin.

Graveyard of champions indeed.

However, I think one has to have a better *reason* than one o' those historical angles (no different from *curses* we've talked about) to believe he can be beat.

Last edited by clicknow; 06-04-2018 at 06:54 AM.
clicknow is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-04-2018, 09:31 AM   #4
dilanesp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
Quote:
Originally Posted by clicknow View Post
This is why capping the Belmont Stakes is an entirely different exercize than looking at PPs for prep stakes races, and even the KY Derby or Preakness. Using the latter approach, Justify towers (actually sky-scrapers ) over this field---by a huge margin.

Graveyard of champions indeed.

However, I think one has to have a better *reason* than one o' those historical angles (no different from *curses* we've talked about) to believe he can be beat.
It's not a curse. American Pharoah proved that.

It's a betting opportunity. TC attempts tend to go off at under even money, and it is highly likely that they are well below 50 percent probability.

That suggests there are possible overlays.
dilanesp is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-04-2018, 11:53 AM   #5
clicknow
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
That suggests there are possible overlays.
All anybody has to do is look at the prices from past to know that. Kinda obvious.
clicknow is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-04-2018, 11:54 AM   #6
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fager Fan View Post
Every prior horse who won the first 2 legs in the past three decades was thought to be unbeatable in the third leg. That proved untrue for all but one.
Certainly that is not the case on this website, 50% of people say he is a toss.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-04-2018, 01:26 PM   #7
dilanesp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
Certainly that is not the case on this website, 50% of people say he is a toss.
That's true, but on the other hand, I still think there's plenty of "rooting for the Triple Crown" around here, with people talking about Justify as if his form, how he looks in workouts, etc., makes him close to a cinch, when in fact the past record of TC attempts alone should make one at least say he could get beat, even if one thinks that ultimately he probably won't.

And just as an aside, I have really never understood rooting for the Triple Crown. One of the things I didn't like about Tom Durkin is he did it every damned time. He would be crying at the end of his Belmont Stakes calls, as if it was some horrible tragedy that a horse couldn't get a mile and a half. (And that sort of thing is especially bad for an on-track announcer, rather than on TV, when you consider there were plenty of bettors at the track who bet against the TC and don't need the announcer to be rooting that they lose their money.)

If the TC happens, it happens. If it doesn't, that's racing. There's no reason whatsoever to root for it unless you personally love Justify as a horse for some reason.
dilanesp is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-04-2018, 02:48 PM   #8
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post

If the TC happens, it happens. If it doesn't, that's racing. There's no reason whatsoever to root for it unless you personally love Justify as a horse for some reason.
For me and my friends Justify winning would be a pretty big deal.

I still bet though cold hearted based on what the race is giving me.

I think he is probably 55% to win based on all the factors.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:07 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.