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Old 11-10-2018, 11:58 AM   #1
TheOracle
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Today's Trainer Comparitive @AQU @Turf -- since April 2018!!!

Here are the Trainers on today's card with positive across the board returns per $2 win place and show wager



Obviously Brown is leading the pack with 12 wins but of course he puts out the most horses on the Turf at 33



His across the board return is only 8% but his win place return is 12.1% per $2 win place bet

He really hurt his percentages yesterday as his horses went 0 for 4 with only one 3rd place finish

I'm trying to figure out a good point scheme for Trainers to adjust for those who have more wins due to more attempts like Brown

C R McGaughey III and A E Goldberg look interesting from this list as Goldberg's horses have not been off the board in their last 5 attempts!!!

C R McGaughey III
4th race
#7 On Patrol
8th race
#2 Profiteer

Goldberg
6th race
#7 Absentee

Brown
8th race
6 Bricks and Mortar
9 Projected


Let's see how they do today on the Turf at Aqueduct!!!

Last edited by TheOracle; 11-10-2018 at 12:11 PM.
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Old 11-10-2018, 08:01 PM   #2
bobphilo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle View Post
Here are the Trainers on today's card with positive across the board returns per $2 win place and show wager



Obviously Brown is leading the pack with 12 wins but of course he puts out the most horses on the Turf at 33

I'm trying to figure out a good point scheme for Trainers to adjust for those who have more wins due to more attempts like Brown
Thanks for posting this info.

Calculating a trainers win % should be easy. Just divide the number of winners by the number of horses he runs. The only problem would be when he enters multiple horses in a race, which Brown often does, since they're running against each other, that would make his win % too low. I'm sure there's a way to account for that but I can't recall it at the moment. You could count multiple entries in a race as one attempt but that would cause an opposite problem in making his win% too high as he has multiple tries to win. Maybe you could use both methods and then average the 2 averages.
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Old 11-11-2018, 10:40 AM   #3
TheOracle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle View Post
Here are the Trainers on today's card with positive across the board returns per $2 win place and show wager



Obviously Brown is leading the pack with 12 wins but of course he puts out the most horses on the Turf at 33



His across the board return is only 8% but his win place return is 12.1% per $2 win place bet

He really hurt his percentages yesterday as his horses went 0 for 4 with only one 3rd place finish

I'm trying to figure out a good point scheme for Trainers to adjust for those who have more wins due to more attempts like Brown

C R McGaughey III and A E Goldberg look interesting from this list as Goldberg's horses have not been off the board in their last 5 attempts!!!

C R McGaughey III
4th race
#7 On Patrol
8th race
#2 Profiteer

Goldberg
6th race
#7 Absentee

Brown
8th race
6 Bricks and Mortar
9 Projected


Let's see how they do today on the Turf at Aqueduct!!!
There were no Turf races yesterday so the above will not qualify for the study
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Old 11-11-2018, 11:00 AM   #4
TheOracle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
Thanks for posting this info.

Calculating a trainers win % should be easy. Just divide the number of winners by the number of horses he runs. The only problem would be when he enters multiple horses in a race, which Brown often does, since they're running against each other, that would make his win % too low. I'm sure there's a way to account for that but I can't recall it at the moment. You could count multiple entries in a race as one attempt but that would cause an opposite problem in making his win% too high as he has multiple tries to win. Maybe you could use both methods and then average the 2 averages.
Hey Bob

Yeah I was thinking for Trainers with 4 starts or better I would use their win percentage as part of their point total. In the case of Brown, he’s winning at a rate of 36.3% so his win point total would be 3.6 instead of giving 5 points for every win which in his case is (5 * 12) = 60 points and does not take into account that he had 33 entries to get those 12 wins

In this way, a Trainer would have to have a high win percentage to get the maximum points

I would keep the 5 points per win for Trainers with less than 4 entries total

I am still tweaking it to see what would be best

Last edited by TheOracle; 11-11-2018 at 11:01 AM.
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Old 11-11-2018, 11:40 AM   #5
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There were no Turf races yesterday so the above will not qualify for the study
Brown has these on the Turf today at Aqueduct
Code:
        11-11-2018	4th race	2	Sweet Connie Girl (KY)	Claiming	One Mile	C C Brown	2/1#	Turf
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
        11-11-2018	6th race	5	Brattata (KY)	Allowance	One Mile	C C Brown	9/2#	Turf
        11-11-2018	6th race	8	Shalailah (IRE)	Allowance	One Mile	C C Brown	5/1#	Turf
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
        11-11-2018	8th race	1	Regal Glory (KY)	Stakes	Six Furlongs	C C Brown	3/1#	Turf
C R McGaughey III has these on the Turf today
Code:
        11-11-2018	4th race	6	Bidding Circle (KY)	Claiming	One Mile	C R McGaughey III	12/1#	Turf
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
        11-11-2018	6th race	4	Initiate (KY)	Allowance	One Mile	C R McGaughey III	15/1#	Turf
        11-11-2018	6th race	13	Pink Sands (KY) (MTO)	Allowance	One Mile	C R McGaughey III	7/2#	Turf
Goldberg has this on the Turf today at Aqueduct
Code:
	11-11-2018	8th race	10	Introduced (MD)	Stakes	Six Furlongs	A E Goldberg	4/1#	Turf
Let’s see how they do today!!!
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Old 11-11-2018, 09:42 PM   #6
TheOracle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle View Post
Brown has these on the Turf today at Aqueduct
Code:
        11-11-2018	4th race	2	Sweet Connie Girl (KY)	Claiming	One Mile	C C Brown	2/1#	Turf
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
        11-11-2018	6th race	5	Brattata (KY)	Allowance	One Mile	C C Brown	9/2#	Turf
        11-11-2018	6th race	8	Shalailah (IRE)	Allowance	One Mile	C C Brown	5/1#	Turf
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
        11-11-2018	8th race	1	Regal Glory (KY)	Stakes	Six Furlongs	C C Brown	3/1#	Turf
C R McGaughey III has these on the Turf today
Code:
        11-11-2018	4th race	6	Bidding Circle (KY)	Claiming	One Mile	C R McGaughey III	12/1#	Turf
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
        11-11-2018	6th race	4	Initiate (KY)	Allowance	One Mile	C R McGaughey III	15/1#	Turf
        11-11-2018	6th race	13	Pink Sands (KY) (MTO)	Allowance	One Mile	C R McGaughey III	7/2#	Turf
Goldberg has this on the Turf today at Aqueduct
Code:
	11-11-2018	8th race	10	Introduced (MD)	Stakes	Six Furlongs	A E Goldberg	4/1#	Turf
Let’s see how they do today!!!
Brown only had 1 winner today



#2 Sweet Connie Girl ran 2nd but the race was off the Turf and will not qualify for the study


McGaughey came through today with a nice show price!!!



#4 Initiate paid $13.40 to show I usually only congratulate on wins however, congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!


Goldberg's horse #10 Introduced finished 2nd in the 8th race today



It paid $7.60 across the board for a modest 26% return per $2 win place and show wager!!!
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Old 11-11-2018, 09:47 PM   #7
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Since this post Brown has gone 1 for his last 7 on the Turf at Aqueduct



However, let's still keep an eye on his barn on the Turf, I suspect his horses will do much better on a Firm Turf which has not happened for his horses in the month of November!!!
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Old 11-14-2018, 01:36 PM   #8
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Brown has another Turfer in the 3rd race today at Aqueduct

3rd race
#13 Greyes Creek

Let's see if he can get this one to hit the board today at a price!!!
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