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Old 02-19-2006, 07:35 PM   #1
DrugSalvastore
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Betting Coup or Paranoia?

I'm possibly starting to get paranoid---but on Feb. 16th at Gulfstream Park, in race number six, I saw, what possibly might have been a cleverly executed and successful betting coup.

#4 Ann Harris had four listed workouts, all of which over the turf. She had raced twice in her career, both times in MSW races on turf. Both times she showed no hint of early speed, and steadily faded to finish abysmally.

She is owned and trained by Fred Seitz, A trainer who went 2-for-15 last year. Winning once with a $37 horse. Seitz decided to drop her into a MCL race and run her on the dirt. He named Kristi Chapman (43-0-0-5 at the meet) to ride. The fact that the filly had no listed dirt workouts, no dirt form, and a 0-for-43 rider named...and two hilariously bad looking running lines on turf, pretty much ensured she would go off at gigantic odds.

I thought I remembered seeing her at 90/1 odds right before the race. I could be mistaken though, as I assumed she wasn't a well meant filly, and paid little attention to her. If you watch a replay of the race, on the tv she's 70/1 and sitting 2nd, about two lengths back, with a half mile to go in the race. Her odds drop down to 60/1, as she starts to make a decisive winning move. She ends up winning by 4 lengths in the end...and pays $123.20 to win. Exactly 60/1 odds.

She was taking late money from someone---I would assume that it was someone who had an idea that the horse is well meant and had handled dirt well enough somewhere before in her life.

Maybe this trainer/owner is a sneaky little devil--or maybe, his filly just dusted a horrible field, and a lot of little coincidental stuff gave off the inaccurate impression that the stable made a little betting score.

I don't know which is the case...but I do know, I won't so quickly dismiss this trainers horse--if a similar situation arises again.
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Old 02-19-2006, 08:00 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrugSalvastore
I'm possibly starting to get paranoid---but on Feb. 16th at Gulfstream Park, in race number six, I saw, what possibly might have been a cleverly executed and successful betting coup.

#4 Ann Harris had four listed workouts, all of which over the turf. She had raced twice in her career, both times in MSW races on turf. Both times she showed no hint of early speed, and steadily faded to finish abysmally.

She is owned and trained by Fred Seitz, A trainer who went 2-for-15 last year. Winning once with a $37 horse. Seitz decided to drop her into a MCL race and run her on the dirt. He named Kristi Chapman (43-0-0-5 at the meet) to ride. The fact that the filly had no listed dirt workouts, no dirt form, and a 0-for-43 rider named...and two hilariously bad looking running lines on turf, pretty much ensured she would go off at gigantic odds.

I thought I remembered seeing her at 90/1 odds right before the race. I could be mistaken though, as I assumed she wasn't a well meant filly, and paid little attention to her. If you watch a replay of the race, on the tv she's 70/1 and sitting 2nd, about two lengths back, with a half mile to go in the race. Her odds drop down to 60/1, as she starts to make a decisive winning move. She ends up winning by 4 lengths in the end...and pays $123.20 to win. Exactly 60/1 odds.

She was taking late money from someone---I would assume that it was someone who had an idea that the horse is well meant and had handled dirt well enough somewhere before in her life.

Maybe this trainer/owner is a sneaky little devil--or maybe, his filly just dusted a horrible field, and a lot of little coincidental stuff gave off the inaccurate impression that the stable made a little betting score.

I don't know which is the case...but I do know, I won't so quickly dismiss this trainers horse--if a similar situation arises again.
Methinks betting coups fer sure. I posted on this little gal over on the long shot thread (#552).

According to the angles in her chart, all seemed to be well planned, well rehearsed and well executed. Therefore, the stable must have been well pleased with the results!

(See, folks, this is the kind of reaction that typifies I was talking about earlier today in the "boxcar angles" thread, whenever a bomb lights up the board.)

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Old 02-19-2006, 08:29 PM   #3
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Not having the complete data for mutual pools on that race ($215,000+), I estimate between $1,000 and $2,000 was wagered in the win pool on that horse. Likely barn money.
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Old 02-19-2006, 10:07 PM   #4
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70-1

Even if the horse has no dirt in her past PP's, any surface switch after 2 non-winning maiden races seems interesting.
According to the odds, the horse should win 1 race in 71 tries.
There is an "Ann Harris" listed in pedigreequery.com- this horse shows born 2003; 1 win, 9 places, 1 show; shows damsire is Mane Minister and it says "Only horse to finish 3rd in all 3 triple crown races". The damsire won 2 stakes, ran total of 10 races. Maybe there is a mistake somewhere.
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Old 02-19-2006, 10:23 PM   #5
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Seitz and the "betting coup"

http://www.brookdalefarm.com/farm.shtml
Seitz owns one of the largest TBred farms in Ky- had Deputy Minister and has 700 broodmares. Wanna bet they have a dirt training track of some kind?
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Old 02-19-2006, 10:27 PM   #6
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Seitz and the "betting coup"

http://www.brookdalefarm.com/farm.shtml
Seitz owns one of the largest TBred farms in Ky- had Deputy Minister and has 700 broodmares. Wanna bet they have a dirt training track of some kind?
CORRECTION-Pedigreequery shows no races= I was looking at DP!LOL!
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Old 02-20-2006, 01:55 AM   #7
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DrugS

Did you post this as some sort of maniac's mating call?

If it was a betting coup I would guess there would have been more than $1300 to win on the horse.
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Old 02-20-2006, 10:05 AM   #8
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Betting Coup.I mentioned having the right frame of mind playing the horses, if there'

I mentioned having the right frame of mind playing the horses, if there anything that will throw you off your game plan it's thinking others out there are conspiring against you in one form or another. I wouldn't call it paranoia, it's a normal reaction that handicappers get when there's no rhyme or reason why this horse or that one beat you. The best thing to do is to put it aside and go on to the next race or card, unless you see a clear pattern present, Boxcar special.


Here again, it's best to go back and see why horses you didn't figure in won and make note along with the conditions and factors that got you that nice win.



Good luck and keep a level head,



T.D.

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Old 02-20-2006, 10:26 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
Did you post this as some sort of maniac's mating call?

If it was a betting coup I would guess there would have been more than $1300 to win on the horse.
The year isn't 1960, you can also bet in other pools...and with offshore bookmakers.

All three P3's this horse was involved in came back paying less than the parlay.

The place and show prices seemed short as well.

If I was convinced that it was in fact a clever betting coup---I wouldn't post it in on a message board.

If the owner and trainer of the horse really is the same guy who owns a big farm in Kentucky---I HIGHLY doubt this was any kind of clever betting coup. Maybe someone connected to the horse knew it handled dirt ok, when tried at the farm's training track...and bet a hundred dollars or so real late.
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Old 02-20-2006, 10:55 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by twindouble
I mentioned having the right frame of mind playing the horses, if there anything that will throw you off your game plan it's thinking others out there are conspiring against you in one form or another.
I've handicapped and watched every race run at GP so far this meet, I've had a bet on more than half of them---and only two races the entire meet did I see something that came across as being even slightly fishy to me. The race in this thread was one. The other involved a 30/1 first-time-starter in a MCL race who had just two nondescript workout. They named an out of town jockey I'd never heard of, with an abysmal record in '05 to ride him. A late rider switch was made to a competent jockey. The horse broke in full stride, and nicely went wire-to-wire.

Just because something looks a little fishy, doesn't mean anything fishy really happened. I realize that.
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Old 02-20-2006, 11:02 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrugSalvastore
I've handicapped and watched every race run at GP so far this meet, I've had a bet on more than half of them---and only two races the entire meet did I see something that came across as being even slightly fishy to me. The race in this thread was one. The other involved a 30/1 first-time-starter in a MCL race who had just two nondescript workout. They named an out of town jockey I'd never heard of, with an abysmal record in '05 to ride him. A late rider switch was made to a competent jockey. The horse broke in full stride, and nicely went wire-to-wire.

Just because something looks a little fishy, doesn't mean anything fishy really happened. I realize that.


Drug, keep in mind a lot things I say are for general consumption, wasn't really questioning your intelligence. Sorry about that.

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Old 02-20-2006, 11:50 AM   #12
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Late jockey switch

Did you ever find out why the jockey switch, if the jockey was used prior by the trainer, if the jokey took off the mount was compensated for showing up to the track?
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Old 02-20-2006, 11:50 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrugSalvastore
I've handicapped and watched every race run at GP so far this meet, I've had a bet on more than half of them---and only two races the entire meet did I see something that came across as being even slightly fishy to me. The race in this thread was one. The other involved a 30/1 first-time-starter in a MCL race who had just two nondescript workout. They named an out of town jockey I'd never heard of, with an abysmal record in '05 to ride him. A late rider switch was made to a competent jockey. The horse broke in full stride, and nicely went wire-to-wire.

Just because something looks a little fishy, doesn't mean anything fishy really happened. I realize that.
Your "fishy" horse had two workout angles (among other things going for her). Workout angles are quite powerful, and I actually consider them to be combination-type angles (performance and trainer intentions). The reason workout angles can be so strong is because the trainer has more control over this type of training medium than any other. The trainer gets to pick the date, the distance, the surface, the jock up, how he wants the workout performed, the spacing of the works,etc.

In short, there is a purpose behind every workout. Sometimes the workout is for testing the horse. Other times, the workout is for "legging up" the horse after a bang-up effort. Other times, the trainer just want to see his horse improve his speed over a series of workouts. Other times, the trainer is just pouring on the work in a short period of time in preparation for an upcoming race, etc., etc.

I know it's hard to believe, but Ana Marie was a standout in that race, most especially since there wasn't much else in it. Of course, when I say "standout", I'm speaking in terms of my methodology's angles. The pedigree factor never entered in to my work. (That was even too esoteric for me.)

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Old 02-20-2006, 11:53 AM   #14
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I know it's hard to believe, but Ana Marie was a standout in that race,
I probably deserve that for starting this god-awful thread.
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Old 02-20-2006, 12:01 PM   #15
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I probably deserve that for starting this god-awful thread.
My ending comment was not meant to slam you. In this game, one man's poison is often another's meat.

I'm not here to insult anyone. I'm here help. I'm here to share handicapping insights, which is precisely what I did on the long shot thread with this particular filly.

More often than most people think, DS, long shot winners were viable, justifiable, reasonable plays before they ran they races.

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