Sham Stakes PPs

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by cj

The final quarter for Gunmetal Gray, since he was still in last with 1/4 to go, listed as 4 3/4 lengths behind, is a bit faster. I have him at ~26.64.

What I'm really interested in is what were Coliseum's and Gunmetal Gray's pace and final figures.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by cj

The final quarter for Gunmetal Gray, since he was still in last with 1/4 to go, listed as 4 3/4 lengths behind, is a bit faster. I have him at ~26.64.

Thanks for the note. That's what I get for trying to squeeze in a post between phone calls. He did make up at least 4.5 lengths from the 3/4 pole. The adjusted FQ is still uninspiring and the raw final time mediocre. I know some frown at raw figures but gotta work with what's available. Equibase scores the race a 105 which would rank it tied for 7th from the bottom of the last 19 renewals. What seemed like a hot pace falling apart set it up nicely for him. He smells like a highly vulnerable horse at short odds wherever he ends up; perhaps the Robert B which has exhibited more Derby class.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Thanks for the note. That's what I get for trying to squeeze in a post between phone calls. He did make up at least 4.5 lengths from the 3/4 pole. The adjusted FQ is still uninspiring and the raw final time mediocre. I know some frown at raw figures but gotta work with what's available. Equibase scores the race a 105 which would rank it tied for 7th from the bottom of the last 19 renewals. What seemed like a hot pace falling apart set it up nicely for him. He smells like a highly vulnerable horse at short odds wherever he ends up; perhaps the Robert B which has exhibited more Derby class.

From a speed figure point of view, the results make sense with Gunmetal Gray improving slightly over his previous best by benefiting from laying off the quick early pace and Coliseum finishing 4 lengths back probably doing only sligthly worse than his previous figure with a poor wide trip and possibly not liking the additional quarter mile from his 6 furlong debut.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

From a speed figure point of view, the results make sense with Gunmetal Gray improving slightly over his previous best...

Perhaps the track was running quite slow for the Sham but he would have crossed the finish going an extra half panel in the American Pharoah in approx 1:44.4. That's an extra half only 5.5 seconds more than his Sham suggesting to me the Sham was a lesser effort... but he wasn't chasing the eventual champ this time.

I bet pretty light that race. Probably dropped a twenty. Lesson learned is stay away from odds-on chalk when it comes to most early year preps.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Perhaps the track was running quite slow for the Sham but he would have crossed the finish going an extra half panel in the American Pharoah in approx 1:44.4. That's an extra half only 5.5 seconds more than his Sham suggesting to me the Sham was a lesser effort... but he ,wasn't chasing the eventual champ this time.

I bet pretty light that race. Probably dropped a twenty. Lesson learned is stay away from odds-on chalk when it comes to most early year preps.

Of course I only have acess to the Equibse figure currently where Gummetal Gray basically paired or sligthly improved om his figure after getting a wise ride pacewise as well as some improvement from matuturity.
As far as Coliseum, he basicaly ran an even race compared to the others but was mistakenely tried to be forwardly place because that's how he ran his maiden race and this is how Baffert races his tophorses. He actually did not look comfotable fighting wide on the 1st turn and backstretch. It didn't seem like Talemo was fightig to rate him - this is just his early foot. He started to fade briefly of the fast pace but then stsrted gaining a bit late as the frontrunners tired. How easily the winner went by him in the stretch made him look more distance challenged than he is.
Many expected him to improve big of his debut win but
Baffert runners are worked toso fast that they are ready to go 1st time and don't always improve big 2nd time.
Perhaps his future strategy would best to not contend wide on a hot 1st turn pace but let him settle midpack and move later when the others are tiring. The worst stratgy is to ride him like an odds on favorite, who can afford to give away ground in a fast paced race around the 1st turn despite a poor start.
I'm not saying we're looking at a future Derby winner, but I wouldn't throw him out totally as a contender based on this race.

[jay68802]

I haven't tossed him yet, but the next race needs to be impressive for him to even get back to being a contender. Really was not impressed with anything in the race, though.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by jay68802

I haven't tossed him yet, but the next race needs to be impressive for him to even get back to being a contender. Really was not impressed with anything in the race, though.

I won't write him off entirely either. Coliseum is a nicely bred horse. The dosage profile is about as good as I've seen this crop:

DP = 6-13-14-1-0 (34) DI = 3.25 CD = 0.71

This would suggest the horse will appreciate distance. For some reason Tapit horses just have not gotten it done in the Derby which does give me a lot of pause especially after this clunker. Further, most Sham also-rans have had limited graded stakes success.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I won't write him off entirely either. Coliseum is a nicely bred horse. The dosage profile is about as good as I've seen this crop:

DP = 6-13-14-1-0 (34) DI = 3.25 CD = 0.71

This would suggest the horse will appreciate distance. For some reason Tapit horses just have not gotten it done in the Derby which does give me a lot of pause especially after this clunker. Further, most Sham also-rans have had limited graded stakes success.

Tapit offspring have certainly gotten it done in the Belmont Stakes, so the other classics appear to be in reach.

As far as the Sham, also-rans (if you count the place horses) include:

Empire Maker
Ten Most Wanted
Borrego
Giacomo
Take the Points
Bourbon Bay
Clubhouse Ride
Secret Circle
Handsome Mike
St. Joe Bay
Laoban
American Anthem
My Boy Jack

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by cj

The final quarter for Gunmetal Gray, since he was still in last with 1/4 to go, listed as 4 3/4 lengths behind, is a bit faster. I have him at ~26.64.

Hope we can follow along the Triple Crown trail with TimeformUS.

Last year, your figures were useful and interesting to compare.


---
as far as the Sham itself?

Gunmetal Gray has a striking name, and he looked good visually winning this one after dancing some dances. Cynics and horseplayers alike were unlucky when Code of Honor went down 'a race to soon', but we get to add Gunmetal Gray to our list.
I don't know what to do with Coliseum yet. Write him off at your own peril. I wouldn't be surprised if he comes back (oaklawn? Fg? Cali?) to win a prep of some sort. He may trounce one of those fields wire-to-wire. 2 races 2 issues at the break. He's meant to be an E/P or E type, and this race went out the window when he didn't break.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Tapit offspring have certainly gotten it done in the Belmont Stakes, so the other classics appear to be in reach.

As far as the Sham, also-rans (if you count the place horses) include:


Ten Most Wanted
Borrego
Giacomo
Take the Points
Bourbon Bay
Clubhouse Ride
Secret Circle
Handsome Mike
St. Joe Bay
Laoban
American Anthem
My Boy Jack

Yes, the Tapit line has done quite well in recent Belmont renewals and I certainly wouldn't write one off at Churchill or Pimlico. Perhaps just a fluky stat in either case given we're dealing with relatively small sample sizes.

As for the Sham "also-rans", perhaps I understated their relative success however the race has not been as classy as other preps and its G3 status supports this. Certainly several runners have had various levels of success but only Giacomo went on to win the Derby. Empire Maker was close. Ten Most Wanted was very classy horse. Borrego was a nice runner but almost always cost me money playing the win pool. St. Joe Bay was largely an allowance company horse that did eventually pick off a couple graded sprints. American Anthem also won a couple graded sprints. Laoban only scored in a short field Jim Dandy.

The Sham distance changed in 2011 and 2012 which also muddies this observation.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Hope we can follow along the Triple Crown trail with TimeformUS.

Last year, your figures were useful and interesting to compare.


---
as far as the Sham itself?

Gunmetal Gray has a striking name, and he looked good visually winning this one after dancing some dances. Cynics and horseplayers alike were unlucky when Code of Honor went down 'a race to soon', but we get to add Gunmetal Gray to our list.
I don't know what to do with Coliseum yet. Write him off at your own peril. I wouldn't be surprised if he comes back (oaklawn? Fg? Cali?) to win a prep of some sort. He may trounce one of those fields wire-to-wire. 2 races 2 issues at the break. He's meant to be an E/P or E type, and this race went out the window when he didn't break.

Yes, I'll post them soon just like last year.

[GMB@BP]

I dont think much of this race, and a big clue was some of the statements after the race "its a first step", "we will see if he moves forward". I dont think its written in stone that he wont be a legit Derby type horse because horses get better but right now he seems a cut below top class.