Sham Stakes PPs

[Blenheim]

Sham Stakes PPs

[letswastemoney]

Let's go Gunmetal Gray. He will get a perfect setup.

[MONEY]

Sham is the correct name for that race.

There are only seven horses entered, B. Baffert has 2, K. Desormeaux has 2, P. Miller has 2 & J Hollendorfer has 1.

It's just free money and 17 Kentucky Derby points for the biggest outfits to share.

Coliseum will most likely win as favorite.

[Tom]

In effect, a 4 horse field.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by MONEY

Sham is the correct name for that race.

There are only seven horses entered, B. Baffert has 2, K. Desormeaux has 2, P. Miller has 2 & J Hollendorfer has 1.

It's just free money and 17 Kentucky Derby points for the biggest outfits to share.

Coliseum will most likely win as favorite.

That's most of the California preps yet the circuit has had no shortage of Derby winners, granted only one from the Sham I'm aware of. That said, there have been some classy Sham winners over the past decade with McKinzie, Collected, Calculator, Goldencents... while most of the non winners did not have graded stakes careers. I'll keep tabs on the winner (likely Coliseum) and assume the rest are not bona fide Derby contenders.

[f2tornado]

Sueno - Hot trainer, cold pilot, coming off cheap stakes on GG the all weather surface. Has enough speed to hit the board but would need big improvement to contend for top spot.
Gray Magician - Retains the hot pilot in Prat. Last out visually impressive but the clock suggests looks could be deceiving. Horse has a dosage index of 5.00 which is fine for this distance but a potential negative at classic distance. I won't leave out of my super play.
Savagery - This colt along with Gunmetal has faced the most competition. Was expecting more in the Cash Call despite the longer odds. If he runs like previous then I expect him to be at or near the lead early then fade. He does have some Non-Phalaris blood and sometimes those horses just pop at unexpected times.
Easy Shot - Figures are a cut below others. Never ran eight panels. Nothing in the breeding lines gets me excited. Toss.
Coliseum - Will be the heavy chalk and the one to beat. Not a fan of Talamo but hard to screw up a short route with what could be an elite horse. Tapit on top and Cherokee Rose in tail female. 34 dosage points suggest this horse has classic distance potential. Will be keyed on top most tickets.
Gunmetal Gray - Faced the most class of the bunch but I feel uninspired. Horse does some decent running late and may appreciate a bit longer go. Money Mike aboard is a plus. Certainly one to include in vertical gimmicks.
Much Better - The "other" Baffert with a Mr. Prospector top line. Turf to dirt. Faced some extreme Brisnet E1/E2 pace numbers in those turf events. Could be dangerous and will be my backup play.

Tentative trifecta play: //

[letswastemoney]

The race is probably unplayable, but there is nothing on paper that says Coliseum is invincible. On TimeformUS, he's only the third fastest horse on final speed figures.

Yes, I know it was his first start. If I thought he couldn't lose though, I wouldn't even bother to play this race if he's the favorite off solely a maiden win against nobodies.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

That's most of the California preps yet the circuit has had no shortage of Derby winners, granted only one from the Sham I'm aware of. That said, there have been some classy Sham winners over the past decade with McKinzie, Collected, Calculator, Goldencents... while most of the non winners did not have graded stakes careers. I'll keep tabs on the winner (likely Coliseum) and assume the rest are not bona fide Derby contenders.

if your saying these about the california prep races what does that say about the rest of the prep when half of them are being won by horses shipping in from california?

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

if your saying these about the california prep races what does that say about the rest of the prep when half of them are being won by horses shipping in from california?

The big preps; Florida Derby, Bluegrass, Wood Memorial, Louisiana Derby, Santa Anita Derby, and Arkansas Derby are typically not won by long distance shippers however this probably has more more to do with a lack of top shippers given a trainer not named Baffert or Pletcher typically will not have more than one solid Derby prospect that late in the game. I don't see California based trainers picking off half the lesser preps either. Baffert does use Oaklawn with success when he needs to split his shots and I expect to see him in Arkansas again this year.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

The big preps; Florida Derby, Bluegrass, Wood Memorial, Louisiana Derby, Santa Anita Derby, and Arkansas Derby are typically not won by long distance shippers however this probably has more more to do with a lack of top shippers given a trainer not named Baffert or Pletcher typically will not have more than one solid Derby prospect that late in the game. I don't see California based trainers picking off half the lesser preps either. Baffert does use Oaklawn with success when he needs to split his shots and I expect to see him in Arkansas again this year.

Your not looking at results then. Races at the Fairground, Kee, Aqu, Oaklawn and GP have been won at various times by the california shippers, and not all from baffert either (Oneil, Hollendorfer, Keith D, etc.)

[Blenheim]

Nice race; fun to handicap. Should be a good one.

~

The average DI and CD for 8fl: 2.92 - 0.68


SUENO, DP = 5-7-5-1-0 DI = 4.14 CD = 0.89
61k - Broke Mdn @ Dmr, MC 80k - shipped to GG annexed the 75k Gold Rush won driving; three works the last one sharp; get the 23% winning post w/a new jock; below par figures; sprint CD.

GRAY MAGICIAN, DP = 4-4-4-0-0 DI = 5.00 CD = 1.00
7.5k - Broke Mdn last out w/a new trainer @ Dmr, 53k - big win last out w/a 117 CR; five nice works @ San Luis w/a blistering 1:12.1; up and down below par figures; sprint CD.

SAVAGERY, DP = 3-3-4-2-0 DI = 2.00 CD = 0.58
100k – Broke Mdn @ Dmr, MC 62.5k - three nice works at Slr; gets a drop in distance and a new jock w/blinkers back; lacks LP; below par figures; 9.5f CD.

EASY SHOT, DP = 2-7-7-0-0 DI = 3.57 CD = 0.69
80k - broke his Mdn last out at Dmr, MC 80k - big win drew clear; two maintenance works; raw splits match those of the favorite; disconcerting below par figures; CD fits.

COLISEUM, DP = 6-13-14-1-0 DI = 3.25 CD = 0.71
225k - broke his Mdn first asking last out @ Dmr, 53k - big hand ride win w/a 117 CR; 6 sharp works w/4 bullets; should improve to BRIS 100s; below par E1,E2, strong LP; CD fits.

GUNMETAL GRAY, DP = 4-7-11-0-0 DI = 3.00 CD = 0.68
225k - broke his Mdn @ Dmr, 60k - bobbled 2nd in the G1 AmPharoh in a nice effort, appears to be the class of the race; poor BCJ; 8 good works, 3 @ distance; highest but declining CR; highest but declining speed figures; CD fits.

MUCH BETTER, DP = 5-5-8-0-0 DI = 3.50 CD = 0.83
600k - ridgling broke Mdn first asking @ Dmr, 60k - interesting turf pedigree w/Brigadier Gerard and Strawberry Road; tough ZumaBeach; poor BCJT; switched back to dirt; 7 nice works w/2 bullets; below par speed figures; 7f CD; serious hunt for Derby points.

~

Nice one, competitive. 2nd starters improve a great deal making Coliseum tough to beat. It’ll be interesting to see how he handles the pace pressure from Much Better who comes in fresh and can run a sharp mile. I think Easy Shot has a shot at it.



/


Lookin' forward to the Sham!

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Your not looking at results then. Races at the Fairground, Kee, Aqu, Oaklawn and GP have been won at various times by the california shippers, and not all from baffert either (Oneil, Hollendorfer, Keith D, etc.)

California based trainers are not winning half the preps east of the Rockies and probably not even a quarter of them. The exemption might be Oaklawn where Baffert goes to avoid running against himself (and is nearly certain to do again this year). Most preps are won by the local and regional players. It's not a lack of quality in shippers; it's a lack of necessity shipping. Sure, Doug O'Neill snagged the Florida Derby a few years back but he was chasing a million dollar bonus, otherwise would have ran in the Santa Anita. There are ample Derby points in California and elsewhere; for now. Perhaps this will change if we continue to see more late campaigning horses like Justify.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

The race is probably unplayable, but there is nothing on paper that says Coliseum is invincible. On TimeformUS, he's only the third fastest horse on final speed figures.

Yes, I know it was his first start. If I thought he couldn't lose though, I wouldn't even bother to play this race if he's the favorite off solely a maiden win against nobodies.

Well said.

This is a workout/prep for Coliseum.

Coliseum has to show some brilliance today to really get my attention as a big Derby win contender... He could lose today, but he very likely pulverizes this group with too much intensity for them to get a mile.

Watched his workouts. They were strong, but the gallop-outs didn't drop my jaw like some of Baffert's superhorses.


Sueno is mildly interesting for 2nd or 3rd.
Gunmetal Gray is the chalk for the exacta under Coliseum...
Both have the luxury today of cruising off the pace. I think Kent may try a rail run with Sueno and doesn't have pressure of actually trying to win. GMG may try to win and flatten out.

will be fun to watch what Coliseum does

[Robert Fischer]

that was a weird one...

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

that was a weird one...

Robert,

Just got home and watched replay. Really weird race. Coliseum broke slowly, carried wide in 1st turn, Talamo fighting him the whole way and just was so rank it seemed to me.


Looks like this one really needs to grow up mentally. Interested to see if Joe gets to ride him again.