Jerome Stakes

[Blenheim]

Jerome PPs

[Someday Silent]

I'm pretty interested in Gates of Dawn. I remember seeing his dam Rosa Salvaje run.

[f2tornado]

I start looking at distance pedigree more with the start of the new year. It probably doesn't mean much for a one-turn mile but gives me something to track for longer events. Over an inch of rain could fall through the night which could leave the track a muddy mess.

Direct Order has the Raise A Native line on top, Buckpasser-x and Chit Chit conduit mare on the bottom. Should appreciate the extra two panels and already has a win on the surface. Also has a win on wet-fast surface.
Family Biz has a victory over the track and ascending figures. Will need to improve more to beat the rest.
Mind Control was the second favorite in Juvenile and failed to recover from awkward start. Should be in the hunt if runs like Hopeful and gets that rider back. Track favors his E/P style. This one is also a Buckpasser.
Our Braintrust could be one of those Laurel horses that surprises. Has unusual Buckpasser damsire line and is a family 23b. Raw times sprinting are fast however the figures less exciting.
Gates of Dawn is another with the uncommon Buckpasser damsire line. Dosage figures suggest best could come at longer distance however has been up front first two outings. Horse does have a win and place on off tracks.
Souper Jackpot has the best last out Brisnet figure. Also a Buckpasser-x. Dosage profile suggests horse should easily handle a mile. Track favors his E style.

The and should break to the front and the track favors their style. If they do fry each other then the would be the most likely benefactor. Not sure how I'll play it if I do at all.

[Blenheim]

Direct Order, 5k - breaks his Mdn @ Prx 46k, nice even race last out, showed some guts deep stretch; nice paired 95 Speed Figures; gets a jock switch; improves.

Family Biz, 10k - breaks his Mdn @ Aqu 70k, nice effort last out chart caller calling it a "good finish." Good works, two at distance, liked to have seen a 1:13 and 1:27; 92 Speed Figure last out, has some work to do.

Mind Control, 5k - breaks his Mdn @ Del 34k, wins the G1 Hopeful w/a 118 CR; trouble in the BCJ, comes in fresh off six works, five @ the deeper tr.t - no excuses; up and down Speed Figures highest @ 94; gets his jock, should be the favorite - soft; we'll see what he has for em'.

Our Braintrust, 25k - breaks his Mdn @ Lrl 40k, three nice efforts with a game finish in last, since then a 9f work (interesting) and a nice 4f bullet - nice effort by the trainer but relatively low Speed Figures; best of luck here.

Gates of Dawn, 425k - breaks his Mdn @ Prx 45k, nice big win last out, despite being headed he drew clear; two nice bullets, Servis has him ready to fire; low LP and CR on a gd track - disconcerting. If I recalls, Pennington wired em’ w/Maximus Mischief in the Remsen and this track is favoring speed; improves, should be tough.

Souper Jackpot, 85k - breaks his Mdn @ CD 76k, tough effort last out w/a 102 Speed Figure and 118 CR; ships in; it'll be interesting to see if that race put somethin in or took somethin out of him; gets a jock switch but wide post; nice last work; has the spi and dpi.


Should be fun to watch.

On the Derby Trail.

[Blenheim]

Over an inch of rain could fall through the night which could leave the track a muddy mess.

Good point.

NWS . . . NY, NY, tomorrow race time: NWS

[Robert Fischer]

Direct Order is dangerous here. I'd probably have him has most likely to win, but it's not an obvious race for me.

[PhantomOnTour]

It's a six horse field....BEFORE scratches....who cares? Highly unattractive race, and it's likely to be only four or five runners.
Good luck

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

It's a six horse field....BEFORE scratches....who cares? Highly unattractive race, and it's likely to be only four or five runners.
Good luck

The only thing really interesting is the slim possibility of a bet-back from this race...

Win bet on is mildly interesting, but you depend on the trainer's influence, and he's a trainer who tends to take money when his horses are going to fire.

5/1 ML yet it's obvious that if Jason has him 100%, he has a nice opportunity to sit off the speed and flow past these scrubs in the stretch... But if he's 5/1 in the gate some of that confidence goes out the window...


It's OK for pick-5 players, but like you say it's a six horse field... Not a complete race.

I'm not a huge Mind Control fan. This could have been a decent betting race with a full field.

Hopefully I see something on the replay, postmortem.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

It's a six horse field....BEFORE scratches....who cares? Highly unattractive race, and it's likely to be only four or five runners.
Good luck

It's definitely January prep filler at best. The race has had no Derby winner since Secretariat. That's 45 years of also-rans. Most don't hit the Wood Memorial either. One must go back to 2008 when Tale of Ekati won the Jerome and Wood and later ran a respectable 4th in the Kentucky Derby.

[Blenheim]

A Derby winner can come from anywhere. A few of interest from Wikipedia . . .


In 2003, the Chapmans gave Smarty Jones to John Servis for training. They sold the Someday Farm property and moved into a smaller home, training only four horses. On July 27, 2003, Servis was schooling Smarty Jones at the starting gate when the colt spooked, reared, and smashed his head on the top of the gate. He fell to the ground unconscious, blood pouring from his nostrils. Servis thought the horse was dead, but Smarty Jones regained consciousness . . .

As a weanling, Lil E. Tee nearly died but was saved by emergency stomach surgery. Considered to have little racing potential, he was sold for $2,000 as a yearling. When he was two, his owner tried to sell him again but was rejected by an auction company that deemed the horse unsaleable. Lil E. Tee ended up in the hands of a Florida owner and was stabled at Calder Race Course in Miami, Florida.

Racing in the United States at age three for new trainer Chip Woolley, in his 2009 debut on February 28, Mine That Bird finished second in the Borderland Derby, and on March 29 had a fourth-place finish in the Sunland Derby. Based on his career earnings in graded stakes races, he qualified as one of the twenty Kentucky Derby starters. Woolley, who had a broken foot at the time and was in a cast, loaded Mine That Bird into a horse trailer attached to his pickup truck and drove over 1,200 miles, over 21 hours from New Mexico to get to the race.

~

Smarty Jones raced at Parx. His trainer has a horse in the Jerome, Gates of Dawn who also raced at Parx, horse has some nice breeding, sold for 425k. Who is to say for certain the horse doesn’t have a shot at it? No doubt the little guys gotta beat the top stables and leading trainers, but the best horse doesn’t always win - that’s why they run the race.

[Tom]

I see 5 horses, winner, big Fav, by at least 8 and the rest strung out over 20 lengths.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Tom

I see 5 horses, winner, big Fav, by at least 8 and the rest strung out over 20 lengths.

It's frustrating how they have decided that 6 horses(before scratches) is acceptable for a race.

Not just talking Jerome Stakes here. I go through the entries and the charts every day. - It's not just happenstance, or a field that didn't fill now and then; It's their standard of an acceptable field.

It's frustrating.

It's disappointing.

If it was done correctly they'd either have 8 horses as the standard and/or they'd lower takeout in these mini-fields.

But that's how life is, and you have to adapt in some way to the reality...

Reality is not going to change for you to be the way it's 'supposed' to be.

A lot of things aren't done correctly.


So, I pass a LOT of these races.

Almost all of them. And almost all of them are worthless for reviewing for finding value for future bet-backs.

On a rare occasion that I happen to have a few really strong contrarian opinions, I'll just make a win bet, or try to link enough of these partial-fields to a pick-4 or pick-5 to actually be able to get some decent leverage.

Originally Posted by Blenheim

A Derby winner can come from anywhere...

Smarty Jones...

Lil E. Tee ...

...Mine That Bird ...

Gates of Dawn ...

love to find a diamond in the rough ... always some excitement there for potential

[098poi]

Win ,

[Tom]

No scratches!
I am

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

A Derby winner can come from anywhere

Very true, however certain preps seem to show more Derby class than others. This is a nice list of Derby winners by prep. Interestingly, many early preps have not been the harbingers of Derby winning success they once were.