Harness Longshots

[pandy]

I finally finished my new thoroughbred book and software, just sent it to the printer, so I'm working on something new for harness racing.

I've noticed that one of the biggest differences in modern day harness racing (when compared to the good old wood bike days), is that the longshots that win tend to pay much higher prices. This is because the favorites win at a much higher percentage than they did back then, so the favorites are much lower odds, which pushes the odds up on fringe contenders. So horses that would have been 10-1 when favorites were winning at 34%, are now 22-1.

So, my question is, is it a good strategy to just play longshots in almost every race? I went through several cards this week, at MVR, MEA, YONKERS, and if I had run my Diamond software and went down the list and keyed the top ranked longshot that didn't have a brutal post position in exacta boxes with the top three ranked horses, I would have hit a bunch of huge exactas. And, if the longshot had one of the better and more aggressive drivers, who is more likely to leave, you might be able to bet more.

I'd like to hear Ray chime in on this, and anyone else who has an opinion.

[Ray2000]

I guess you can say the "Gini Index" applies to Harness payoffs as well as the rich/poor economic studies. I posted a poll here a few weeks back with a chart showing average Win price drop off in the last 6 months. Somebody's hitting the favorites hard.

In my case I've given up on watching the board to see if my pick is Bet-able. I send the bets in the morning and use (of all things) the Morning Line as the final filter. Any one Morning line can be so far off it's laughable but taken as group there's a definite sweet spot on Ranks 3, 4, 5 and maybe 6. This kinda supports your strategy to play just the reasonable longshots in each race.


I look forward to reading your latest book, How about a new one for Harness?

[pandy]

I'm working on one for harness. Thanks Ray.