What is your most important Handicapping tool/trait?

[highnote]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i handicap the races and come up with a horse that i like and think strongly that he is going to win. instead of betting him to win, i bet him to get beat. that is the greatest system in the world.

they have had 5 or 6 vip contests right on this site. i have played in all of them. so far i have yet to pick 1 winner in the contest. its basically perfect for what i need to do. the harder i try the more i lose. you don't need to invest in any computerised programs or special past performances too. there is only upside in this deal.

Prof. Leighton Vaughan Williams is Professor of Economics and Finance, Director of the Betting Research Unit and Director of the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.

https://leightonvw.com/

He says his system is to bet against what he wants to happen. This works well in horse racing, sports, and politics.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by highnote

Prof. Leighton Vaughan Williams is Professor of Economics and Finance, Director of the Betting Research Unit and Director of the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.

https://leightonvw.com/

He says his system is to bet against what he wants to happen. This works well in horse racing, sports, and politics.

Works EXTRA well in the stock market....

[highnote]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Works EXTRA well in the stock market....

You're onto something. That explains why I'm the only person in the world to ever lose money on Microsoft's stock.

Of course, if I would have bought and held I would have eventually made back my money.

[ARAZI91]

Originally Posted by highnote

Prof. Leighton Vaughan Williams is Professor of Economics and Finance, Director of the Betting Research Unit and Director of the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.

https://leightonvw.com/

He says his system is to bet against what he wants to happen. This works well in horse racing, sports, and politics.

A very learned man , Highnote - he has written many fine white papers on the Uk's horseracing and sports betting markets including a very well known one covering the favourite / longshot bias. James Willoughby recently done a 3 part series on Racing UK covering academia in horseracing and included that paper as well as Benter , Kelly , & Bolton & Chapman etc.

Also has written a book - Betting To Win.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by ARAZI91

A very learned man , Highnote - he has written many fine white papers on the Uk's horseracing and sports betting markets including a very well known one covering the favourite / longshot bias. James Willoughby recently done a 3 part series on Racing UK covering academia in horseracing and included that paper as well as Benter , Kelly , & Bolton & Chapman etc.

Also has written a book - Betting To Win.

I had the good fortune to spend a few days with him at an academic conference on horse racing back in the late 1990s at the University of Louisville in Kentucky and have followed his work ever since. He has given a lot of very good betting advice over the years.

[Fred Mertz]

I first look at jockey trainer connections and then I go from there.


I wouldn't call it most important, but it is my starting point.

[MacTavish]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

What software do you use?

RDSS.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by highnote

You're onto something. That explains why I'm the only person in the world to ever lose money on Microsoft's stock.

Of course, if I would have bought and held I would have eventually made back my money.

Like the deaths of Lennon and JFK, everybody in Seattle can tell you what they were doing the day Microsoft went public. It was offered at $28 to start the day, and made it up to close to $35 before settling around $33.50, if my memory serves me correctly. I took an afternoon break with another guy I was working with and we were discussing it. I remember him saying, "You gotta be fast with these IPOs. We've already missed the boat on this one."

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by highnote

Prof. Leighton Vaughan Williams is Professor of Economics and Finance, Director of the Betting Research Unit and Director of the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.

https://leightonvw.com/

He says his system is to bet against what he wants to happen. This works well in horse racing, sports, and politics.

Great explanation of quantum theory. Now we just have to find a way to get the subatomic particles that make up the horse we bet on to spin in the right direction to bring about the world in which he wins.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Then I mustn't be a good handicapper...because I can't see how a 3-year-old can have an on-track "edge" over a 4-year-old...based on their age alone. I know that the 3-year-old's age-disadvantage lessens as its 3rd year of life progresses into its latter stage...but how does its relative youth and immaturity ever become an ADVANTAGE?

That's probably because though the older horses have the advantage during most of the year, at some point late during the year this advantage is reversed as the 3YOs mature combined with the fact that the previous years crop is weaker than they should be because the best horses of that crop have been whisked off to stud early.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Then I mustn't be a good handicapper...because I can't see how a 3-year-old can have an on-track "edge" over a 4-year-old...based on their age alone. I know that the 3-year-old's age-disadvantage lessens as its 3rd year of life progresses into its latter stage...but how does its relative youth and immaturity ever become an ADVANTAGE?

Older horses are more developed and generally better, but horses tend to compete against other horses with similar accomplishments and ability. They'll face each other later when the gap is narrower.

For example, the typical Grade 1 older horse will be better than the typical Grade 1 3yo in spring, but they won't be running against each other.

An ALW NW1 field may contain both 3yo and 4yos.

In a race like that you might prefer the 3yo. All else being equal, the 3yo will tend to be more lightly raced and still have significant upside while the 4yo may have had physical problems or more limited ability and that's why he's still eligible for NW1 despite being 4.

In the claiming ranks it's entirely different.

A 25k claimer for older will typically contain horses that are battle scarred tough vets with many wins under their belt.

A 25K claimer for 3yos will be more like a NW2L or NW3L containing horses that have only won a maiden claimer. The younger horses will probably still have more upside, but they are inferior at that stage.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by linrom1

These are highly biased numbers: no great 4, or 5 year olds are racing at that age, they're all retired.

That's probably one of the contributing factors to why Beyer figures seem to be declining a bit at the Grade 1 male level. More of the very best 3yos retire before we get to see their peak at 4 or 5.

Another interesting aspect of this is how lightly raced 2yos and 3yos are compared to years ago. Part of development is the a horse getting bigger and stronger as a result of physical maturity. However, part of it is getting more seasoned, tougher, and in better shape with racing experience.

2yos used to be campaigned harder and most Derby caliber horses were quite battle tested by spring. Now they are all so lightly raced, that could account for why the figures are lower but can sometimes then explode higher later in the year. Not only are they getting bigger and stronger, they are also getting a lot of seasoning under their belt that they formerly used to get earlier.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by lefty359

I rely on software and patience and 2 horse betting ala Sartin.
Been watching and betting race since the 50's and everytime I think I've seen it all they show me something else!

When I first started playing the races, O won my very first bet - $28.20 ona fifty cent a week allowance! My Father told me not to think that was going to happen every week - there were 1 million ways to lose a horse race. He was wrong. There are at least 2!

[Mdnspecialist]

When it comes to maidens or lightly raced winners. Pedigree is tops for me. Especially the Dams offspring stats. That will tell you a ton. Then in those same races, trainer and jockey stats will also shed some light on what they are good at or just plain terrible. Sometimes great pedigree stats will over ride average or less than average jockey/trainer stats. I'll give you an example from Saratogas 6th race on Saturday. The Dams offspring stats for the 8 and 10 stuck out to me..The 8's Dam is Strawberry Sense...Turf routes 29/6-6-2..5 starters and 3 winners...The 10's Dam is Sandtina...Turf routes 79/12-14-17..6 starters and 3 winners...So 14 of 29 itm for the 8's offspring runners in turf routes and 43 of 79 for the 10's offspring runners in turf routes..They ran 2nd and 4th...Not bad for a 28-1 and 37-1...I see shit like this all the time. You can get huge odds like this when they run a clunker their first time out.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Mdnspecialist

When it comes to maidens or lightly raced winners. Pedigree is tops for me. Especially the Dams offspring stats. That will tell you a ton. Then in those same races, trainer and jockey stats will also shed some light on what they are good at or just plain terrible. Sometimes great pedigree stats will over ride average or less than average jockey/trainer stats. I'll give you an example from Saratogas 6th race on Saturday. The Dams offspring stats for the 8 and 10 stuck out to me..The 8's Dam is Strawberry Sense...Turf routes 29/6-6-2..5 starters and 3 winners...The 10's Dam is Sandtina...Turf routes 79/12-14-17..6 starters and 3 winners...So 14 of 29 itm for the 8's offspring runners in turf routes and 43 of 79 for the 10's offspring runners in turf routes..They ran 2nd and 4th...Not bad for a 28-1 and 37-1...I see shit like this all the time. You can get huge odds like this when they run a clunker their first time out.

You may very well be on to something backed by genetic science. Though the sire and dam contribute half of the nuclear DNA to the offspring, there are organelles in the cell outside the nucleus called the mitochondria which are the cells' "power houses" which convert fuel to energy. They have their own DNA and 100% of this DNA is inherited from the dam. This could very well give the dam an important additional contribution to the offspring in terms of energy production. The use of mitochondrial DNA is already being used to trace inheritance through the female line in genetic studies of populations. There is an organization, whose name escapes me now, that does an analysis of a horse's maternal mitochondrial DNA.

The whole issue of the relative importance of the sire vs dam, and the additional maternal effect of the dams' mitochondrial DNA on a horses' performance, deserves its own thread which I'd like to see or start in the future.