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Old 12-25-2017, 12:11 PM   #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mc990 View Post
Most of the odds changes are just corrections on the win pool inefficiencies... if more bettors referenced the double prices to ascertain probable "off odds", there would be a whole lot less complaining.
The daily-double pools being much smaller than the win pools...how can they be relied upon to be more "predictive" in the forecasting of the "real" win-odds?
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Old 12-25-2017, 12:30 PM   #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
The daily-double pools being much smaller than the win pools...how can they be relied upon to be more "predictive" in the forecasting of the "real" win-odds?
The win odds on a given horse are mostly commensurate in the multis... 10-15 years ago, maybe not so much. Yes, I understand that there will be more anomalies with smaller pools but if you calculate probable win odds from the doubles, the last second odds drops will be less surprising than just basing it on the board with "X" minutes to post...

Again, it's by no means an exact science but I'd be willing to bet that 90% of the time when someone complains about a drop, it is the price merely coming into line with the double will pays
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Old 12-25-2017, 12:34 PM   #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mc990 View Post
The win odds on a given horse are mostly commensurate in the multis... 10-15 years ago, maybe not so much. Yes, I understand that there will be more anomalies with smaller pools but if you calculate probable win odds from the doubles, the last second odds drops will be less surprising than just basing it on the board with "X" minutes to post...

Again, it's by no means an exact science but I'd be willing to bet that 90% of the time when someone complains about a drop, it is the price merely coming into line with the double will pays
And I'd be willing to TAKE that bet.
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Old 12-25-2017, 12:49 PM   #49
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What percentage of pools are affected by computer-driven arbitrage wagering...? Might these robotic operations be the most likely source of the majority of the last second swings in odds...?

Also, I wonder how deeply affected BetFair is by massive arbitrage wagering schemes...seems like this venue might be more susceptible to these types of robotic operations...

Last edited by VigorsTheGrey; 12-25-2017 at 12:50 PM.
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Old 12-25-2017, 01:38 PM   #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mc990 View Post
The win odds on a given horse are mostly commensurate in the multis... 10-15 years ago, maybe not so much. Yes, I understand that there will be more anomalies with smaller pools but if you calculate probable win odds from the doubles, the last second odds drops will be less surprising than just basing it on the board with "X" minutes to post...

Again, it's by no means an exact science but I'd be willing to bet that 90% of the time when someone complains about a drop, it is the price merely coming into line with the double will pays
This works best if you use the will-pays from the favorite in the previous race; as the odds from the winner in the previous race increase, the predictability becomes less-so.

I only play NYRA, so can't comment on how this works elsewhere. 90%? Maybe a little high. 75%? For sure. When the odds don't move in the direction of the double will-pays, that also tells you something...stable betting or betting from someone who knows something, or THINKS they know something.
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Old 12-25-2017, 01:47 PM   #51
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I understand that odds can change after I make a bet, but I don't understand why the odds are allowed to change after the gate opens. There should be a national law that criminalizes that. Now if the track has to wait one minute for that to happen or 5 minutes, or 10 minutes, so be it. If they open the gate before all bet are calculated, then it comes out of the tracks pocket. That would stop this crap!

The main thing that needs to be stopped here, if a speed horse gets off to a bad start, he's finished and got no shot, in most cases. Being able to past post even 20 seconds is huge. There're been a few guys here in the past bragging about doing this.
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Old 12-26-2017, 09:47 AM   #52
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Many Many times I see the favorite trading on Betfair exchange at 2.50 (3-2) yet the horse is sitting at 2-1 on the tote. I laugh at the naivety of the bettors who think they are going to get 2-1 on the horse. Always gets bet down like 100% of the time.

Betfair exchange odds are much more accurate indication of the off odds 2 MTP.

Allan
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Old 12-26-2017, 03:41 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by biggestal99 View Post
Many Many times I see the favorite trading on Betfair exchange at 2.50 (3-2) yet the horse is sitting at 2-1 on the tote. I laugh at the naivety of the bettors who think they are going to get 2-1 on the horse. Always gets bet down like 100% of the time.

Betfair exchange odds are much more accurate indication of the off odds 2 MTP.

Allan
Okay. the acid test.

1st at Sunland 12/26/2017 Two minutes to post

5 horses. The 1 horse was scratched

Betfair odds

2---38
3---6
4---4
5---5-2
6---9-5

Tote odds

2---5
3---5-2
4---2
5---3
6---3

and the off odds

2--25
3--5-2
4--2
5--3
8--8-5

Allan
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Old 12-26-2017, 04:48 PM   #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by biggestal99 View Post
Okay. the acid test.

1st at Sunland 12/26/2017 Two minutes to post

5 horses. The 1 horse was scratched

Betfair odds

2---38
3---6
4---4
5---5-2
6---9-5

Tote odds

2---5
3---5-2
4---2
5---3
6---3

and the off odds

2--25
3--5-2
4--2
5--3
8--8-5

Allan
and they all look liked great values based on that
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Old 12-26-2017, 05:03 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
And I'd be willing to TAKE that bet.
i want half your bet!
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Old 12-26-2017, 05:28 PM   #56
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i want half your bet!
But two minutes after you two make that bet, it drops from 90% to 60%!
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Old 12-26-2017, 09:12 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey View Post
How is the betting exchange in New Jersey able to pull off in-race betting, even during the stretch run...?

How can the computer networks process the bets in so short a time when most video feeds have delays built into them.?
The Exchange wagers are not placed using the track and satellite wagering servers.
For normal PM wagering there are several betting outlets. All go to a hub. The hub then sends the bets to the host track. The host track mutuel computers then must reconcile the wagers. Only then are the odds, pool totals displayed on the infield tote and the monitors through out the respective plant.
At least in reading info on here, this is my understanding of how the wagers are processed.
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Old 12-26-2017, 09:17 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by Fager Fan View Post
Right, but it sounds like his complaint is that the odds dropped after he bet.

I understand the perception problem with odds dropping during the running, but I've never heard a call for betting to close 1 minute prior. Maybe I've missed it.
Long time ago, NYRA closed betting when the display indicating "Minutes to Post reached "0".
The horses may have not started loading yet. It didn't matter.
Also, in those days. There were signs everywhere that clearly stated "once the patron leaves the betting window, all bets are final".
Today, on line bettors can cancel wagers up to the bell. And in turn bet the bell.
That huge volume of wagers made up to the last possible moment take time to be processed. Hence the time lag in displaying the odds and pool totals ot the public.
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Old 12-26-2017, 09:22 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by molson721 View Post
Today's computers can process information almost instantly. They are close to coming up with computer driven driver-less cars. You can place an order on the New York stock exchange or a wager on a race seconds before the race goes off and after you hit send, the order goes through almost instantly. To think there is nothing wrong with this shows age, a lack of today's computer abilities or both. I hope that doesn't come off as an insult because it is not meant to be. Are the people calculating the odds using an abacus?? Its called technology and there is no excuse for this. I would not have wagered what I did if the horse was closer to 4-1 instead of 11-1 at post time. For theodds to change twice during a 5 furlong sprint is ridiculous. It isn't difficult USING MODERN TECHNOLOGY to update the odds every 30 seconds especially close to post time. By the way, significant for me is a $50(not enough to cause the drop in odds) win bet instead of the usual $10-15 plus a few smaller exotics and my win bet was placed after the first horse was loaded. I wager the same amount every day and try to be disciplined in my betting but sometimes when I think I am getting a great price, I go against what I usually wager so I am not a big fish but the blue collar guy racing doesn't really care about.
Great idea. Costs A LOT of money for the computer systems. Also, tons of money would have to be spent creating a fiber optic cable backbone.
The financial exchanges can afford the technology.
My guess is this technology is not in the budgets of most race tracks.
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Old 12-26-2017, 09:27 PM   #60
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Originally Posted by Fager Fan View Post
Let's assume its instantaneous. Youre still in the same boat, you only learn of it quicker. If you're playing a last second game against the whales, it's tough for you to win.

If I played substantial money in this sport, I'd be demanding equal treatment for all bettors. It seems to me that the rebates, and huge rebates to whales,takes more money from smart players than anything else.
My perception is A) the whales expect preferential treatment.
B) If the perks stopped, the whales would find something else on which to bet their money.
If the whales pull their money from US based horse racing, the tracks all close. Period.
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