The Woodward

[Tom]

Looking the TF Free PPS this morning - I have a question.
The Pace Projector favors horses on or near the early lead.
Three outside horses have Early Pace within 2 points of each other, and the horse is only a couple of points behind.
Four horses between 99 and 103.

I see the "par" for the race is 128. Am I correct in assuming that even though four horses are close to each other early, they are "slow" enough compared to par that they should not tire each other out? I seem to recall hearing that 10 early points are about a length. So even if the three speed up some, there is still wiggle room before they start killing each other off.

Or am I out in left field here? Not unusual! I see Ted Williams a lot.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Tom

Looking the TF Free PPS this morning - I have a question.
The Pace Projector favors horses on or near the early lead.
Three outside horses have Early Pace within 2 points of each other, and the horse is only a couple of points behind.
Four horses between 99 and 103.

I see the "par" for the race is 128. Am I correct in assuming that even though four horses are close to each other early, they are "slow" enough compared to par that they should not tire each other out? I seem to recall hearing that 10 early points are about a length. So even if the three speed up some, there is still wiggle room before they start killing each other off.

Or am I out in left field here? Not unusual! I see Ted Williams a lot.

I'm sure that cj could better answer this quesion but I' guessing that horses with high early speed figures tend to be need the early lead types and if there are several ones in the same race they may exceed their usual speed figure to contest for that lead.

[classhandicapper]

I believe the positioning of the horses relative to each other is primarily based on the horse's prior pace figures (the early rating) and whether the race may favor front runners or closers is more a function of their running styles and other factors. So in this race even though 3 horses are rated close together the pace is expected to be slow because none of them are real front runners that might engage in a serious and fast duel.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

I'm sure that cj could better answer this quesion but I' guessing that horses with high early speed figures tend to be need the early lead types and if there are several ones in the same race they may exceed their usual speed figure to contest for that lead.

In my reply I misunderstood that the pace projector to say that horses on or near the early lead did not have an advantage and that is the situation I as explaining. In the case you describe where the pace projector does favor horses on the early lead your reasoning is correct. Class also explains it correctly.

[Form W-2G]

Originally Posted by Tom

... even though four horses are close to each other early, they are "slow" enough compared to par that they should not tire each other out?

I don't use TF so can't answer your question directly, however at first blush at Bris PP the race appears to lack any serious early speed. I wouldn't be surprised to see the horse who strikes to the front remain there for the duration. I wouldn't be surprised to see "Money" Mike Smith aboard that particular horse.

More tomorrow.

[GMB@BP]

Outside speed at 9F at Saratoga....very very tough to make the lead, and it wont be easy.

[bobphilo]

This analysis exposes a commonly held myth and believe that any time 2 leaders are going head to head they are engaging in a speed duel and the pace is being contested no matter how slow they are going. If they are galloping along side by side at a comfortable pace they are not dueling or contesting anything.