Travers Stakes

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Why would you ever bet a known before the race underlay.

Her odds will be less than her chances of winning.

Its like betting Zenyatta in the BC classic at Churchill.

Allan

I didn't say for sure if I was. The race is so hard, that I might just watch. But I'm only saying Wonder Gadot is a realistic contender.

Certainly, if I constructed a trifecta, she'd have to be thrown in somehow.

Mendelssohn is the gigantic underlay in this race.

[Robert Fischer]

If you love Wonder Gadot to win , bet her.
She's still third choice after GM and G.


She's an underlay if you feel she should be an interesting long shot and not a third choice or so.

She's an overlay if you feel she is the best racehorse.



I don't know how she'll do. She could win. My best guess is that her very best race puts her into contention, but weakens in mid-deep stretch. There's also a class issue where she could be in a position to try to out-position and out-kick some tough beasts. If that happens she may not get off. If she takes first run I could see her running 2nd or 3rd depending on the scenario...

[Thomas Roulston]

How could Wonder Gadot have not gone for the Canadian Triple Crown - as a filly?

And her pedigree says that the Breeders' Stakes' 1 1/2-mile distance would have posed no problem at all - and she could have always taken on the boys in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

[jay68802]

First thoughts are often misleading...

Trigger Warning (30-1 864) Needs to wire this field, and that would take a huge effort. Other speed in here gives him very little chance.

Wonder Gadot (5-1 881) Filly has a shot, but needs the great trip and a couple others to not fire their A game. Outside chance.

Gronkowski (4-1 890) Another person pointed him out and I now agree. Only one rated higher is GM. Gets a good set up and is a strong contender.

Bravazo (12-1 874) Likes to clunk in there, do not see the win here.

Vino Rosso (10-1 885) Probably needs the pace meltdown, and there is some in here that are to good for that to happen. Underneath.

Meistermind (30-1 843) Not a spot for this one, maybe a restricted stakes runner at best.

King Zachary (15-1 850) Another one in over his head. Could improve but not going to bet on it.

Mendelsshon (12-1 838) One of my original thoughts, now a after thought. Lowest rating in the race says a lot to me. Toss.

Good Magic (2-1 892) Proven to be a good one, and can win this. Sits just behind the pace and gets first run. Strong contender.

Tenfold (8-1 865) The crazy runner. Has some very strong races and some that are head scratchers. What one will show up?

Catholic Boy (8-1 885) Outside post has send written all over it. Will be in contention for a long time. The price is right on this one and is a ideal dutch horse.


Price says it all, the needs to be 3-1 and the at 6-1. Playing with the and .

[biggestal99]

Wonder Gadot runs out tomorrow at an underlaid price.

Too bad I cant bet the X at saratoga (that is reserved for the UK X)
I would be betting both fists that she gets crushed,

If horses could speak she would be saying tomorrow as she weakens and gets passed by horses:

"But I beat aheadbyacentury 6 in the slop at Fort erie in a restricted race"

totally Outclassed. shes way too slow for these.

Allan

[Mc990]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Wonder Gadot runs out tomorrow at an underlaid price.

Too bad I cant bet the X at saratoga (that is reserved for the UK X)
I would be betting both fists that she gets crushed,

If horses could speak she would be saying tomorrow as she weakens and gets passed by horses:

"But I beat aheadbyacentury 6 in the slop at Fort erie in a restricted race"

totally Outclassed. shes way too slow for these.

Allan

way too slow? on which numbers?

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Mc990

way too slow? on which numbers?

Numbers? I am talking my experience with horses like Wonder Gadot.
she'll be overbet and facing horses way better than aheadbyacentury.
its a lot to ask. also she's been in training for a long time. Horses are not machines. well I guess time will tell. I have been right and wrong.

If I am right it will :I told ya so:

If I am wrong "yikes, made a fool of yourself again allan" LOL.

horse racing opinions make the world go round.

My friend Dave and I argued for 8 straight hours about value.

still no winner on that one.

Allan

[Mc990]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Numbers? I am talking my experience with horses like Wonder Gadot.
she'll be overbet and facing horses way better than aheadbyacentury.
its a lot to ask. also she's been in training for a long time. Horses are not machines. well I guess time will tell. I have been right and wrong.

If I am right it will :I told ya so:

If I am wrong "yikes, made a fool of yourself again allan" LOL.

horse racing opinions make the world go round.

My friend Dave and I argued for 8 straight hours about value.

still no winner on that one.

Allan

Fair enough and best of luck tomorrow.

Has 2 standout Ragozin (ground loaded) numbers... no doubt she will take money in all pools based on that alone. She may be all but unplayable in the win pool though.

[Robert Fischer]

Barber and Gadot aren't in here to hope that she can sit a trip and survive contact to bull her way through a seam with a late charge...

She's likely to be used aggressively.

Her KY Oaks was good enough (on Thorograph, and Beyer) to hit the board, but can she run that fast while making a wide 1st-move?

[Redboard]

There is no Justify here, looks wide open, of course, Good Magic will be the favorite and he should. But looking for a wise guy value play:

Trigger Warning (30-1) - Looking at his PPs, he likes an inside position. Could very well wire the field.

Bravazo (12-1) - Placed in both the Haskell & Preakness, which is not easy to do.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Wonder Gadot has a serious shot in here. She is a 10 panel horse and is obviously in form.


I'll play her with Bravazo, Good Magic, Tenfold, and Catholic Boy.


Trigger Warning isn't a no-chancer at what will likely be a huge number.

[bobphilo]

Analysis based on TimeformUS speed-pace figures at relevant race distance adjusted with information gathered by viewing replays of contenders for factors like ground loss and trips. Additionally, used Pace Projector to see who will be advantaged or disadvantaged by the probable pace.

1) Good Magic has the constantly highest figures at the 10 furlong distance (124), though by a narrow margin, and though the projected pace will be fast, can be rated to whatever scenario occurs.

2&3) Tie between Grownkwski and Wonder Gadot. G ran a terrific 2nd in the Belmont and will be formidable if he repeats his 123 figure. The only question is can he run that figure at the shorter Travers distance or does he need 12 furlongs. He should benefit from the expected fast pace.
WG has figures to match and can adapt to the pace scenario by either leading or pressing and closing. I doubt her connections would have passed on an almost sure chance at the Canadian TC unless so had shown she could handle these boys.

4) Vino Rosso ran an impressive 122 in the Belmont but has the same issue as G at the shorter distance. His Jim Dandy performance showed he is too slow early to be effective at 9 furlongs unless he gets a killer pace like he did in the Wood. Unfortunately, his only race at 10 furlongs in the Derby is a throw out due to his troubled trip in that crazy 20 horse stampede on the narrow Churchill strip. He obviously will like the expected quick Travers pace.

5&6) Tenfold and Bravazo have been taking turns beating each other running similar figures in a narrow 117-118 range. they should both be able to handle the pace and distance.

So much for the handicapping. How to structure the betting will depend on the odds.

Good luck to all and may they all come home safely.

[Buckeye]

Catholic Boy is number one in my book and we have two others in here:

Mendelssohn and Gronkowski.

[Afleet]

early publichandicapper odds:

Total Number of Picks On This Race: 661

Program # Picks Horse PH Odds
1. 8 Trigger Warning 69 - 1
2. 84 Wonder Gadot 5 - 1
3. 103 Gronkowski 9 - 2
4. 47 Bravazo 11 - 1
5. 88 Vino Rosso 5 - 1
6. 6 Meistermind 92 - 1
7. 16 King Zachary 34 - 1
8. 67 Mendelssohn 7 - 1
9. 116 Good Magic 7 - 2
10. 47 Tenfold 11 - 1
11. 79 Catholic Boy 6 - 1

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by burnsy

but c'mon, those horses up there are probably not world beaters

Travers winners are quite often not world beaters either. Keen Ice, Will Take Charge, V.E. Day, Stay Thirsty, etc., hoppping past Baffert's recent speed demons.