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05-14-2018, 02:41 PM
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#121
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
Only value is finding an exotics bomb to hit the ex or tri.
Tenfold may be the one for Asmussen
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I always find comments like this a little weird.
Exotic combinations with a huge favorite on top and longshots underneath are, in my experience, almost always overbet. Why not just pass a race like this and wait until a situation where you dislike the favorite and can beat him or her at a big price in the exotics?
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05-14-2018, 02:44 PM
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#122
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mc990
I'm curious to see the draw but I have to envision Good Magic getting a similar trip to last year's winner...
It's not like Justify has a huge margin for error over GM. An overconfident ride could be all it takes to close the 2 length gap from the Derby.
I also think there is big improvement coming soon for GM.... hopefully the narrative that the Derby was some kind of new lifetime best will continue to be told. He's still got room to move off that race.
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what would an over confident ride look like (consist of)?
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05-14-2018, 02:46 PM
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#123
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 293
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
what would an over confident ride look like (consist of)?
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Wide.
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05-14-2018, 03:10 PM
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#124
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mc990
Wide.
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well that would mean two others are going 23 and 46...I guess it could happen.
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05-14-2018, 03:19 PM
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#125
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,253
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
I always find comments like this a little weird.
Exotic combinations with a huge favorite on top and longshots underneath are, in my experience, almost always overbet. Why not just pass a race like this and wait until a situation where you dislike the favorite and can beat him or her at a big price in the exotics?
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One reason why I won't pass on the race....I'm gonna be there at Pim and there's no way in hell I'm just gonna sit and watch LOLOL
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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05-14-2018, 03:48 PM
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#126
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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Gotta see if track comes up wet first. Is it supposed to be wet?
If track comes up wet, I have 4 horses I think can run ITM with Justify:
Pony Up, Good Magic, Tenfold & Quip. Might even try a superfecta with these.
If track is fast/dry, then I'm looking at an entirely different scenario and will have to re-do my capping.
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05-14-2018, 04:40 PM
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#127
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 445
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Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado
Justify: Baffert/Smith
Good Magic: Brown/J. Ortiz
Bravazo: Lukas/Contreras?
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Saez is riding Bravazo and Contreras SC. Unfortunately. I read some comments from Lukas that sounds like he's disappointed at that too and it's about appeasing owners. Can't find where I read it.
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05-14-2018, 05:54 PM
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#128
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,046
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
well that would mean two others are going 23 and 46...I guess it could happen.
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Actually, Mike Smith likes to play "cat-and-mouse" and has already done so with Justify. In the Santa Anita Derby he tried to float Bolt D'Oro out wide, which failed and Justify ended up struggling to switch leads, twisting a shoe, and drifting in late.
In races that are basically distilled down to 2 horses, as the Preakness figures to be (i.e., Justify and Good Magic), Smith has shown he'll try some questionable tactics, presumably because he's trying to outsmart other riders. While he's been successful in some of those races, I don't know if the wins were due to his tactics or in spite of them.
He shifted position with Arrogate when stalking California Chrome in the 2016 BC Classic. Espinoza of course was completely distracted by it and rode even sillier than Smith that day.
He's also questionable when he's on the overwhelming favorite. His rides on Abel Tasman, Midnight Bisou, and Unique Bella have backfired at times.
Who know's what stunt he'll try to pull at Pimlico. I'm sure we'll know its coming when he starts looking back under his arm for Good Magic around the 3/8s pole...
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05-14-2018, 06:39 PM
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#129
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 313
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clicknow
Gotta see if track comes up wet first. Is it supposed to be wet?
If track comes up wet, I have 4 horses I think can run ITM with Justify:
Pony Up, Good Magic, Tenfold & Quip. Might even try a superfecta with these.
If track is fast/dry, then I'm looking at an entirely different scenario and will have to re-do my capping.
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From what I’ve seen it’s supposed to rain all week and into the weekend. Also, Iread Pony Up is out.
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05-14-2018, 08:10 PM
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#130
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 282
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Giant Rabbit
Quote:
Originally Posted by Afleet
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I've watched this probably 2 dozen times in my life, if not more, and never noticed the gigantic 2 story inflatable white rabbit on the back stretch before now.
FWIW Sporting Chance refused to break 3x from the gate in his most recent work.
Bolt is going to the Met Mile, which really makes sense for a horse that hasn't been able to beat his own crop since Sept.
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05-14-2018, 08:54 PM
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#131
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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In the last 13 years only 4 Kentucky Derby winners were able to win the Preakness Stakes.... They were American Pharoah (2014), California Chrome (2014), I'll Have Another (2012) and Big Brown (2008)
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05-14-2018, 09:01 PM
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#132
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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The derby 2nd place runner has only won the Preakness twice in the last 24 year.....it was Exaggerator in 2016 and Prairie Bayou in 1993
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05-14-2018, 09:29 PM
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#133
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,470
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Ahhhh. The CURSE of the Derby Winner!
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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05-14-2018, 10:08 PM
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#134
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
Ahhhh. The CURSE of the Derby Winner!
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Lol......Justify breaks a 136 year Apollo curse, an 0-51 Scat Daddy curse, & he might lose on the derby winner curse? Lol!
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05-14-2018, 10:49 PM
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#135
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,617
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Over the past few decades one of the better bets in sports was to take the Derby winner in the Preakness then bet against in the Belmont. Didn’t work with Pharoah but you got more than your money back on Travers day. Chad Brown isn’t sticking Good Magic in the race for place purse money so his pony must have came out of the Derby in nice shape. This coupled with at least a minor issues with Justify. He still might need Justify to break a step slow from the outside coupled with one of Smith’s goofy chalk rides. I’ll use both on top but GM will primarily be the insurance play. Orb and Always Dreaming are fresh in my mind but Justify appears better than those.
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