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Old 07-11-2018, 07:10 AM   #1
ZippyChippy423
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Most vulnerable types of races where favorite is consistently beaten?

Is this type of information available or does anyone keep track? Seems to me that there should be patterns of what types of races favorites consistency get beat at. That info could be huge when betting exotics like pick 3,4,5 etc.
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Old 07-11-2018, 08:41 AM   #2
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Ultimate PPs from Brisnet have a race summary page that gives the favorite's winning percentage, ITM percentage and ROI in races of that type. The sample sizes can be quite small, though and past performance, of course, is not indicative of future results.
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Old 07-11-2018, 08:47 AM   #3
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Thanks!

That should be huge information to any hanicapper out there. Imagine normally
a favorite wins 25% of the time in all races but in
certain condition races only like 5-10% of the time. That is a beautiful thing especially if someone was going to single a favorite
in a particular race..... given this info they clearly would want to change that. Thanks again!
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Old 07-11-2018, 11:20 AM   #4
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When favourites lose

If you do handicap Woodbine, I see any horse that is either 4/5 or really bet down lose. A good example is Pink Lloyd. Bet down and lost the race. I had the winner because I knew Lloyd was going to lose. I am more into value capping at Woodbine this meet, but when I see a big favourite I like, I will be $20 on it.
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Old 07-11-2018, 01:21 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZippyChippy423 View Post
Is this type of information available or does anyone keep track? Seems to me that there should be patterns of what types of races favorites consistency get beat at. That info could be huge when betting exotics like pick 3,4,5 etc.
Yes, you need the data to make determinations.

I know the stats for all surfaces and class levels through a database for every race in the country, what factors win more than others, etc etc.

In general, turf racing produces the most dynamic price shifts, likely because factors other than pace and speed, which most public information is geared around, performs poorer than on dirt.
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Old 07-11-2018, 01:26 PM   #6
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Yes, you need the data to make determinations.

I know the stats for all surfaces and class levels through a database for every race in the country, what factors win more than others, etc etc.

In general, turf racing produces the most dynamic price shifts, likely because factors other than pace and speed, which most public information is geared around, performs poorer than on dirt.
Ever notice most of the trainers that fall under the move up category don't do very well on turf?
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Old 07-11-2018, 02:04 PM   #7
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Ever notice most of the trainers that fall under the move up category don't do very well on turf?

And what would be your explanation for that happening on a regular basis?
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Old 07-11-2018, 02:09 PM   #8
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And what would be your explanation for that happening on a regular basis?
Dirt is more tiring. On that surface, some trainers seem to find ways to get horse to keep going. On turf, it is more about waiting and speed bursts late. Whatever they are doing helps mostly with stamina.
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Old 07-11-2018, 03:06 PM   #9
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In my experience NW2L claiming races are more likely that the favorite doesn't win. The cheaper the claiming price the more likely the favorite is vulnerable.
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Old 07-11-2018, 04:29 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZippyChippy423 View Post
That should be huge information to any hanicapper out there. Imagine normally
a favorite wins 25% of the time in all races but in
certain condition races only like 5-10% of the time. That is a beautiful thing
especially if someone was going to single a favorite
in a particular race..... given this info they clearly would want to change that. Thanks again!
IMO...the betting public has proven themselves quite competent across all types of races. If I ever saw a sample where the favorite won only 5-10% of the time...then, instead of betting that this trend would continue...I would expect that things would revert to the mean.
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Old 07-11-2018, 04:39 PM   #11
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IMO...the betting public has proven themselves quite competent across all types of races. If I ever saw a sample where the favorite won only 5-10% of the time...then, instead of betting that this trend would continue...I would expect that things would revert to the mean.
I can put up some stats when I get home.

I have definitely changed the way I bet now and a big part of it is finding the type of races that produce more random results. Random in the sense the general, or even the slightly less sophisticated player does not see.
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Old 07-11-2018, 09:35 PM   #12
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In my experience NW2L claiming races are more likely that the favorite doesn't win. The cheaper the claiming price the more likely the favorite is vulnerable.
Are you suggesting that a 3/2 favorite in a NW2L wins at a rate lower than 3/2 favorites in other types of races? There may in fact be fewer winning favorites in NW2L but there is probably a higher average odds for favorites in those races.
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Old 07-12-2018, 09:29 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZippyChippy423 View Post
That should be huge information to any hanicapper out there. Imagine normally
a favorite wins 25% of the time in all races but in
certain condition races only like 5-10% of the time. That is a beautiful thing especially if someone was going to single a favorite
in a particular race..... given this info they clearly would want to change that. Thanks again!
Most of these stats are more like the favorite wins 38% in one type of race and 30% of the time in another. If there was a condition where the favorite was winning 10%, better start betting the favorites in those races because the public will figure it out.
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Old 07-12-2018, 02:54 PM   #14
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In my experience NW2L claiming races are more likely that the favorite doesn't win. The cheaper the claiming price the more likely the favorite is vulnerable.
If true that's pretty interesting. Because traditionally one of the categories with the highest % of winning favorites is lower level maiden claimers.
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Old 07-12-2018, 02:57 PM   #15
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If true that's pretty interesting. Because traditionally one of the categories with the highest % of winning favorites is lower level maiden claimers.
This is accurate based on my studies, and on the grass even more so.
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