Mo Donegal
Classy late runner that can stay the distance. Must use win contender.
Happy Jack
Decent distance rating from DRF but nothing else to recommend it. Toss.
Epicenter
Chalk that’s hard to toss from the ticket, despite a few dings as a 7/2 win contender.
Summer Is Tomorrow
DRF likes his distance chances but I don’t see enough to go on.
Smile Happy
Has a little bit of everything, but only a little. Not a toss, but can’t fit on the ticket.
Messier
Hard to justify beats, but they muddy form and buoy price. Has the requisite speed, class, and distance prospects. Prime selection.
Crown Pride (JPN)
A wildcard worth a bet at ML odds. I’ll take the uncertainty and distance prospects for my tickets
Charge It
Impressive but short career; hard to take here. Like
, a non-toss that will beat me.
Tiz the Bomb
Not a hard toss, but a toss. A good run in the JR Steaks on synth, and a promising distance rating from DRF. May not be best on dirt, and you need your best to prevail here.
Zandon
Like the TFUS sharps, I prefer the
. Comfortable leaving this short price out accordingly. Some questions about the distance and TFUS class assessment.
Pioneer of Medina
Little bit of wise guy attention for this one, but like the
, I can’t muster a case to include. Nothing but maybe a BRIS distance fig to recommend him.
Taiba
Clearly one of the keys to the race. You’re either for him or against him. I’m against. Like Beyer says, he may be the greatest of his generation, but he needs more than two preps to win at 10f against 19 rivals.
Like I said in another thread. Of the five highest figs ever run by the field, Taiba ran two of them, including the highest (tied with Messier). In his first two races. No runner has come even close to those two figs in their early races.
But he’s passed three horses in his entire career—facing all of 11 rivals. He figures to be, what, sixth in the early going? With at least five legitimate contenders among the 14 closing in? You could argue half a dozen of these are classier.
He is off my tickets and beats me hard here. Or maybe I score.
Simplification
Yet another, like the
and
, that I can’t fit in my tickets, but probably scares me most.. BRIS likes him better than TFUS, and his DRF distance fig is mediocre.
Barber Road
Aside from a few glimmers of class, no confidence playing this one. Toss.
White Abarrio
Too many dings on this one to take in the top five. Don’t see a pace advantage, distance is questionable, and mixed stats on class. Andy Beyer picked him, so he’ll take a little extra money.
Cyberknife
I’m using this guy. He’s got the speed to stay out of trouble, looks to get the distance, and even has a sprinkling of class. He’s green, but he started out sharp, and his six races put him in the top half of experience here.
Classic Causeway
Using this guy too. Looking past his last race, his run in the Kentucky Jockey Club suggests he’s not a lead-or-die type, but he’ll be contending. Yet he also has the distance credentials. It’s tough to lead 18/19 horses to the finish, but he’s got a shot at a price.
Tawny Port
One of several you might toss in, but I’m tossing out. Speed and pace not out of the question, but distance and class questionable.
Zozos
Minor prodigy after three races, has some early speed to keep out of trouble, but that’s not enough to use.
:21: Rich Strike
Speed and class figs pretty abysmal, and little indication it will stay the distance. You get the sense it could clunk up for something with legit late pace capability, but I’m thinking it outruns it’s > 50-1 odds to maybe 9th or 11th.
Use
, fade the
Against
Fear
Toss
:21:
With so much to analyze, I didn't really find anyone I really wanted to project for a big improvement on scant clues like I might do in day-to-day handicapping. I guess I was categorically against the lightly raced here.
I'll construct wagers tomorrow.
