Rich Strike?

[pandy]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Oxbow and Epicenter ran nearly identical races through 6F and 1M. They were both 3 to 3.5 back at 6F into very similar fractions, and sitting on the lead/.5 back after 1M.

Difference is Epicenter went on to finish runner up beaten by 3/4s a length while Oxbow finished 6th and 10 back with almost identical finishing times of 2:02.61 and 2:02.89

I thought Epicenter was at least six lengths behind. I'll have to check that, see how strong his pace figures are

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by pandy

I thought Epicenter was at least six lengths behind. I'll have to check that, see how strong his pace figures are

When a horse is off the lead but still relatively close to an extremely fast pace, the impact can be a bit of an enigma unless similar quality horses were in the same area and you can compare them. You know they got a better trip than the leaders that were out there winging, but it's often harder to tell how much they were impacted relative to the horses that were even further back.

Another tough one is the horses that were further back while wide. Even though they may be well off the pace, they are sometimes being used quite hard while wide just to stay with the pack. They also may be getting a better trip than the horses on the pace, but it's sometime no picnic to be in their position either.

If you notice, in this Derby, the top 3 were off the pace and saved at least some ground.

[Someday Silent]

This thread about Rich Strike has been a good lesson in human psychology.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

When a horse is off the lead but still relatively close to an extremely fast pace, the impact can be a bit of an enigma unless similar quality horses were in the same area and you can compare them. You know they got a better trip than the leaders that were out there winging, but it's often harder to tell how much they were impacted relative to the horses that were even further back.

Another tough one is the horses that were further back while wide. Even though they may be well off the pace, they are sometimes being used quite hard while wide just to stay with the pack. They also may be getting a better trip than the horses on the pace, but it's sometime no picnic to be in their position either.

If you notice, in this Derby, the top 3 were off the pace and saved at least some ground.

No question about it. I put up a Youtube video yesterday showing which horses I want to watch out of the race. Zozos ran a very good race. Of the horses that ran with the pace, Zozos finished in front of the others. I'd like to see them put him in races from 6 furlongs to a mile and a sixteenth or maybe even a mile and an eighth.

But Epicenter and Zandon were far enough back where they had no excuse. Zandon had a perfect trip, just wasn't good enough. But, he only had four races coming into this, so maybe Zandon can move forward. Epicenter had 6 races and a solid foundation, not sure if he's going to move up off this.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Oxbow and Epicenter ran nearly identical races through 6F and 1M. They were both 3 to 3.5 back at 6F into very similar fractions, and sitting on the lead/.5 back after 1M.

Difference is Epicenter went on to finish runner up beaten by 3/4s a length while Oxbow finished 6th and 10 back with almost identical finishing times of 2:02.61 and 2:02.89

I just watched both Derbys, 2013 and this year. Oxbow was much more aggressive that Epicenter right from the start. Oxbow was used hard chasing the pace. Epicenter was nicely placed through the first half of the race. True, the fractions probably did hurt his final quarter, and Zandon did appear to get a better trip since he was farther off the pace and tucked inside, but Epicenter had no excuse in my opinion. Not that he's not a nice horse, he is. But, if he was an outstanding horse, he would have won.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Someday Silent

This thread about Rich Strike has been a good lesson in human psychology.

Psychology is what kills most in this game.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by rrpic6

Such a Magical day for Sonny! So glad my girl DVR'd the race as we were stuck in traffic on the way to see Journey in Cleveland last night as the Derby was running. I knew something was up as my phone and twitter were blowing up at 7 o'clock. Shame on me for not even betting a loose deuce on Reed/Leon. I did here quite a few of the Faithful at MVR did have some small WPS wagers on the miracle horse.

RR

I guested last night on a podcast and for the first time in public expressed what some of us have been thinking and saying privately for some time now: Sonny Leon is one of the best jocks on the planet. And THEN some.

Dinoto won the derby pool at tdn, and I am still needling her about the unreal ride from Leon. (She has been known to roll her eyes at my long-standing characterization of him as a "sorcerer." ) And that's probably appropriate on her part. A steward SHOULD remain detached.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by zico20

A couple of comments! It takes a talented, gifted horse to win the Triple Crown. None have done it since 1946 with Assault. That is a long time and racing has changed dramatically since then. Many many better horses than Rich Strike have won the Derby and failed, some miserably. He has a much better chance of running out of the super than he does of winning the Preakness. In theory, yes, in reality, no of being a Triple Crown champion.

Er, not sure what you mean here. Six horses have won the Triple Crown since Assault, two in the last seven years. Is there a different Triple Crown defined?

We don't know how good Rich Strike really is - he was held up through most of the stretch by traffic. He could be a MONSTER on dirt, for all we know. He reminds me quite a bit of Mine That Bird, who did hit the board in the Preakness.

Originally Posted by zico20

I thought the crop was bad, possibly really bad. Can't see how someone could think this is a quality group.

We don't know for sure how this crop will pan out, but it does look sub-par when beaten by a horse like Rich Strike. If track condition was the factor I think it was, I expect some of the horses will bounce back much better at other tracks.

Originally Posted by zico20

Never is a long time! Many have gone broke betting against streaks, not only in horse racing, but at the casino and sports betting. Think of the teams that took forever to win a championship. Cubs, Red Sox, Chiefs, our St. Louis Blues. Betting them every year to win cost you a fortune and you still came out down when they finally did. Of course, if you were betting the Cubs starting in the 1930's you died long before they won.

Streaks defy the logic of statistics, but I won't belittle anyone who climbs aboard a streak machine - in theory, you can only lose once.

Originally Posted by zico20

If Epicenter runs he won't bounce. Can you give me a list of very good Derby horses that ran great and then flopped in the Preakness. I can't think of any. More often than not they hold their form and repeat with a great effort. I worry your list is going to contain several average horses, like say Orb, Always Dreaming, and Super Saver plus a bunch that ran second that weren't all that great.

You can't have it both ways, by calling the crop "really bad", and then referring to "very good Derby horses" and how they will do in the Preakness. Those views are mutually exclusive, since there can't be a good horse in a bad crop. Or can there?

Regardless, I'll concede that the more classy a horse is, the less likely they are to bounce. But you've also mentioned how the game has changed, and it's my opinion in this day and age the horses just don't hold form or run peak performances as in the past. To stick with a horse who ran well in the Derby and expect that to project onto a second good effort two weeks later is risky. The days of comparing past KY Derby and Preakness efforts to today's entrants may be as applicable as dosage and center of distribution. Which is to day, hardly applicable at all.

We saw how horses with two and three starts did on Saturday. Epicenter had six weeks off before the Derby, and I think it's a coin flip as to whether or not he comes back in two weeks and runs well again, or hits the wall and stops.

What I do know for sure is that he had a pretty smooth trip in the Derby, got beat by a horse with lots of question marks, and will over little to no value on top in the Preakness. Surely there will be other overlays to bet?

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by pandy

I thought Epicenter was at least six lengths behind. I'll have to check that, see how strong his pace figures are

Epicenter was that far back through the first 1/4, he was gaining on the leaders all the way up the back stretch though, by the far turn he is basically on the leaders' tails.



If Epicenter gets the ride Zandon got, he wins the race. Prat rode Zandon all the way through the far turn like it was a warm up. Terrific ride, just not enough horse.

[porchy44]

Originally Posted by mountainman

....... Sonny Leon is one of the best jocks on the planet. And THEN some.

I know you have "made your bones" with horse racing. And I enjoy and respect your analysis at Mountaineer. Myself I have bet the Ohio. Kentucky, NY tracks myself regularly for as long as I remember. But I found that statement a bit "overzealous". Not looking for a fight. It's just that it took me by surprise. Best Jockey in Ohio, I'm perfectly OK with that.

[mountainman]

I respect your opinion and realize mine puts me in the minority.

[Suff]

Originally Posted by porchy44

I know you have "mjust that it took me by surprise. Best Jockey in Ohio, I'm perfectly OK with that.

3 consecutive riding titles at Mahoning and a derby , he's more than a ohio.

No glory where he rides. He might be great.

[JustRalph]

Perry Outz!! Props!

https://spectrumnews1.com/oh/columbu...-strong-at-67-

[rastajenk]

This is Mr. Ouzts, sporting the colors of Bushwood racing a couple years ago.



<----

[zico20]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Er, not sure what you mean here. Six horses have won the Triple Crown since Assault, two in the last seven years. Is there a different Triple Crown defined?

We don't know how good Rich Strike really is - he was held up through most of the stretch by traffic. He could be a MONSTER on dirt, for all we know. He reminds me quite a bit of Mine That Bird, who did hit the board in the Preakness.



We don't know for sure how this crop will pan out, but it does look sub-par when beaten by a horse like Rich Strike. If track condition was the factor I think it was, I expect some of the horses will bounce back much better at other tracks.




Streaks defy the logic of statistics, but I won't belittle anyone who climbs aboard a streak machine - in theory, you can only lose once.



You can't have it both ways, by calling the crop "really bad", and then referring to "very good Derby horses" and how they will do in the Preakness. Those views are mutually exclusive, since there can't be a good horse in a bad crop. Or can there?

Regardless, I'll concede that the more classy a horse is, the less likely they are to bounce. But you've also mentioned how the game has changed, and it's my opinion in this day and age the horses just don't hold form or run peak performances as in the past. To stick with a horse who ran well in the Derby and expect that to project onto a second good effort two weeks later is risky. The days of comparing past KY Derby and Preakness efforts to today's entrants may be as applicable as dosage and center of distribution. Which is to day, hardly applicable at all.

We saw how horses with two and three starts did on Saturday. Epicenter had six weeks off before the Derby, and I think it's a coin flip as to whether or not he comes back in two weeks and runs well again, or hits the wall and stops.

What I do know for sure is that he had a pretty smooth trip in the Derby, got beat by a horse with lots of question marks, and will over little to no value on top in the Preakness. Surely there will be other overlays to bet?

What I meant was Assault was not a great horse, the six winners since were or had incredible talent. Rich Strike doesn't fit the bill. It is more likely Rich Strike is biased towards CD dirt. He will never get that set up again and he won't win the Preakness.

The crop is below par but that doesn't mean there isn't a horse or two that wouldn't have been competitive in other years. Epicenter is the one who is really good this year. Debatable who else can become a quality horse down the line.

Yes Epicenter had a smooth ride and only lost because of the insane pace by a horse that got lucky that everything went his way, from the pace to a perfect ride. You are correct, if he runs he will offer no value in the win pool. If Zandon doesn't run look for him to be 6-5/8-5. Going to have to hit the super with less possible combinations.