Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
I don't know.
Can tell you that obvious favorites who are favored because of legitimate factors do offer you a coin flip or dice roll, but they are long-term-losers. You are essentially paying for the pleasure of a gamble. You aren't sharping anybody with these bets.
I stink at any horse or sports gambling stuff in which I don't see some specific, significant thing that is being badly mispriced.
stats and trends are often useful factors, but can be generally misleading, and again - the obvious, legitimate stuff is generally priced in.
You may see something like "on college bowl week" or "on March Madness" heavier '>5...' favorites are 'xworse/better' than '≤ 1.5' points favorites etc... where you hope to attribute the fan $ to some expected inefficiency...
In other words, you want synergy with the stats and some other thoughtful insight/Reason.
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I have a very different point of view about betting sports
last season I paper bet about 75 NHL games just to see how I would do.
I didn't go into depth - I just scoped out the home and away records to see if the money line looked out of balance - I ended up with a positive 4.5% R.O.I.
I'm well aware that that doesn't prove anything but still
I believe beating sports is much easier than beating racing - the much lesser house hold is one reason, but there are others
I don't believe the sports betting crowd is all that sharp or that you have to go into great depth to find an edge
I was watching a sports wagering show on Comcast yesterday - it looked ridiculous - the guy was touting dozens of bets - mostly props - for no good reason
I believe large numbers are betting just because that's their home team
fixed odds - so it definitely helps to bet early - the sharps definitely plunge late and make it harder if you wait
you may have missed what I posted last year re road dogs in the NFL
I won't dish up the whole thing again until the season begins
but the main thing is that Statistician Mike Shackleford tracked more than 2,000 games and found that road dogs had a positive R.O.I. of 2.57% (see link)
not much but still pretty amazing since it involves no handicapping
I have tweaked that and done much better - will post before the 1st game
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
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