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Old 05-20-2022, 02:30 PM   #61
jocko699
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Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate View Post
The competition this year is suspect, that's for sure. I liked Messier in the Derby, mostly on his speed figures regardless of the small California fields he faced. That didn't work out so well.

Epicenter hasn't done much wrong, but he has been run down in two of his last four races. IF, and it's a big IF, he represented the best of the 3YO crop like past generations, he should have won the Derby with something left. The blanket finish in the Derby is a tell that the field was poor - the low Beyers are another tell. Epicenter was all out at the finish, and if he's a lower class horse like I believe he is and at the peak of his career, he may regress.

Had Epicenter run the same figure in the Oaks, then yes he wins with ease. He probably would have appreciated the shorter distance as well. Even if he bounces a few points in the Preakness, he could still win. But I see his pattern as topping, and Secret Oath perhaps setting up for a move forward. I don't get the impression that Epicenter's TF figures will improve for a fourth race in a row, but of course speed figures are only part of the equation. I guess we'll find out in about 30 hours. This year the tote board and post parade will be how I play the race, and neither Epicenter or Secret Oath will offer much value. Nor do the other two logical contenders, Early Voting and Simplification. A slight move forward, and Early Voting wires the field at 5-2?

(Ooops)

Just checked the early betting in the BES-Preakness $2 doubles. The chalk 10 with the four logical contenders pays:

$15 Epicenter
$37 Secret Oath
$46 Early Voting
$69 Simplification
$109 Creative Minister

The others are all much higher. You may be right, maybe the 2 dog is the "wise guy" horse. For those that bet him, let's hope he runs better than the wise guy horse(s) in the Derby.

Good luck!
Epicenter was 2/5 to win a little while ago.
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Old 05-20-2022, 02:42 PM   #62
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Epicenter may not be the next coming of Secretariat but you have to analyze the competition. There are no stand out horses he is up against. Early Voting blew a huge lead against a horse that isn't as good as Epicenter. Secret Oath ran a hard race in the Oaks, drifting in badly while being whipped left handed. There is your bounce. Ask yourself this, if Epicenter was in the Oaks and she wasn't, do you think he would have been in an all out drive? NO! It would have been a walk in the park. She is the one most likely to throw in a clunker. She isn't that good, the Arkansas Derby proved that when she lost ground to a sub par horse. Betting a horse with only three starts and no stakes competition is almost always a bad bet. Creative Minister will be the wise guy horse and an underlay. Horses generally decline in their speed figures when stepping way up in class.
They are all looking at a $1.6 million purse. Heck even a 4th is a big payday. Epicenter imo stands alone in this group. I agree with your Secret Oath comments. Many people are on her for obvious reasons. Girl, Lukas, the Oaks win etc but she has never faced the likes of Epi, Simp and EV. I had her all day in the Oaks because she fit great in that race and at good odds. She imo does not fit here and odds will be too low. She may not bounce and she may run her best race ever. The question is, will that be good enough? I say nope.

Epicenter should be stalking and then let loose around the turn with Rosario pounding him to what I can see as a 3-5 length win. I know Asmussen wouldn't be coming to Baltimore if he wasn't 100% confident in Epi's chances at retribution. I don't see any of these horses beating him.

My own amateur kooky analysis (assuming all horses present well in the post parade):

Simplification----belongs. Tough horse always tries. Decent derby rally. 1st or 2nd
Creative Minister----doesn't really belong here. Not fast enough and not enough experience. Maybe 4th?
Fenwick- LOL
Secret Oath- belongs. Brilliant filly, but most likely not good enough here. 2nd or 3rd
Early Voting- belongs. Speed, grit. But can he go the distance if hooked early? Almost wire to wire on a massively favorable speed bias track. Only beat Skippy, who was off the pace that day, by less than 4 lengths at 17-1. Win or nothing is my guess.
Happy Jack- belongs. Quality competition past races. Can get a piece late. 3rd or 4th
Armagnac- faced quality horses past races BUT won't have Lasix and wasn't able to beat Happy Jack in the past. My only question is why did they bring him here? Baffert ego situation? Do they see or know something we don't? 4th maybe.
Skippylongstocking- the name aside, belongs. May clunk up for a piece. Maybe 4th or if lucky, 3rd.

So what are my bets? I can write something here but I will no doubt change my mind 1,000 times in the next 28 hours!

Last edited by MarylandMan; 05-20-2022 at 02:49 PM.
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Old 05-20-2022, 03:28 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by jocko699 View Post
Epicenter was 2/5 to win a little while ago.
Yeah, the early money is a bit much. Sometimes it's right, sometimes....

I give the horse about a 40% chance to win, so that's no value - but I think he goes off at 4-5 to 6-5.

I'll have some savers with him on top, but not much. Ya gotta take a stand somewhere. If you bet a cold 8-5-1-4 super for $100 and it comes in, you'll be giggling like a chimp. But there are some other combinations that offer more value, though like zico20 would say, "It's only an overlay if it WINS!"
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Old 05-20-2022, 03:48 PM   #64
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Epicenter was 2/5 to win a little while ago.
Totally disregard that. Fenwick is currently co 3rd choice at 10-1. There is no money in the pool.
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Old 05-20-2022, 03:50 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate View Post
Yeah, the early money is a bit much. Sometimes it's right, sometimes....

I give the horse about a 40% chance to win, so that's no value - but I think he goes off at 4-5 to 6-5.

I'll have some savers with him on top, but not much. Ya gotta take a stand somewhere. If you bet a cold 8-5-1-4 super for $100 and it comes in, you'll be giggling like a chimp. But there are some other combinations that offer more value, though like zico20 would say, "It's only an overlay if it WINS!"
Don't leave us hanging! If you give Epicenter a 40% chance at winning, where is the other 60% on. Break it down!
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Old 05-20-2022, 04:54 PM   #66
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At a Glance

At a Glance:

4 Secret Oath
8 Epicenter
5 Early Voting
1 Simplification
2 Creative Minister
7 Armagnac
6 Happy Jack
9 Skippylongstocking
3 Fenwick


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Old 05-20-2022, 05:41 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by zico20 View Post
Don't leave us hanging! If you give Epicenter a 40% chance at winning, where is the other 60% on. Break it down!
I forgot, each year there are many who want my picks (to safely toss them out...)

8 - 40%
5 - 25%
4 - 15%
1 - 15%
+++++++
others - 5%, needing 20-1 to be a fair price

Since everybody is dissing Fenwick, I'm tempted to play the son of Curlin bred by Oxley on top.

As the postal guy used to say, the dog in the BES looks like "a monster!"

Time for $5 to show....
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Old 05-20-2022, 05:59 PM   #68
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I was looking for free PPs of the Preakness. I don't know if missed them here, but I found them at https://www.drf.com/formulator/pp-de...2/PIM/13/D/USA

The format is odd there, but if you go to the far right blue box across the top of the page, you will see a printer icon with the words "View/Print PPs". Click on that and you will see some options and can then see the standard printable PPs.


For what it's worth, I opted out on all the "Additional Options" and got the full standard PPs.
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Old 05-20-2022, 09:54 PM   #69
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My bets will be $25 win on Early Voting

$2 Trifecta

Early Voting/ALL/ALL

Hoping a bomber comes in underneath
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Old 05-21-2022, 02:49 AM   #70
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I literally drew random numbers out of a cup.

boxed tri

boxed tri
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Old 05-21-2022, 09:02 AM   #71
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I'll post my thoughts now, before catching up on the thread and the public handicappers.

Looks like a chalky one. My preferred tiers:

,
,,


Toss ,,

The is the closest thing to a clever idea. Lightly raced and proven to pass horses. The is just my longshot suckup play, but it does look to fit the pace scenario. Maybe it makes my exactas accordingly, keyed to chalk on top.

I liked a bit of Simplification in the Derby, and I really liked his performance. Just doesn't have the raw figs the top two do. But I may promote him if his odds don't go way down.

Early Voting is lightly raced—in a bad way given the price—but can win this off his last race.

is the deserving favorite and by all rights should win this.

Trying not to be biased for or against the filly . She has more wins than any in the field, one more than the favorite. She won the Kentucky Oaks, which looks to be about as classy as this one. I may elevate her, too, at a decent price.

Could not see a catalyst for sufficient improvement for to contend, but could be a near-random super or maybe tri filler. I tossed in the Derby hard, and will do so again, I don't get this guy (now on his way to the winners circle). The gives no indication it belongs here. I hope they all take money in the chase for the next Rich Strike.
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Old 05-21-2022, 09:47 AM   #72
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Moderate Pace?

would help two runners

Simplification - Hey I'm not a fan of this horse. I think he's a fraud. However, if he breaks forwardly and saves ground in a moderate pace, he could be 3rd or 4th.

Armagnac - I like.
Not only do I 'dislike' his pace rival Simplification, I also think Armagnac can land a 3rd or 4th in a moderate pace and his price is much bigger than Simplification ( 12/1 ml 6th choice in Doubles ).


Irad is on Armagnac and look..., he's not gonna duel his brother Jose into submission vs. Chad Brown's horse Early Voting...

Jose is either going to set the pace on that , or shrug off a cheap horse like the Fenwick...

Irad is just going to cruise. It's fair if you say "not good enough". I do think he's fine to run 3rd or 4th tracking a moderate pace. I doubt the can beat both of the

ticket examples 10cSu 58 / 587 / 587 / A-3 =$2.00

good luck. Enjoy the event. Pass a race for me. Take it easy.
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Old 05-21-2022, 11:36 AM   #73
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Tossed 50 and 5 into respective preakness pools. drew epicenter in both. unreal-i mean i ALWAYS pull some 50-1 shot.

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Old 05-21-2022, 12:27 PM   #74
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I'm going with Skippy and Simp to win exacta box with epicenter
plus a separate box with those two
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Old 05-21-2022, 02:22 PM   #75
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I'll post my thoughts now, before catching up on the thread and the public handicappers.

Looks like a chalky one. My preferred tiers:

,
,,
I need to read the pace discussion here again, but I've caught up with the public sharps I follow.

Looks like has to go, but can't contend with , who may be willing to rate. The favorite can rate or even go to the front if it's easy. Will push them at all in a Hail Mary bid?

All that, and may more forward, and maybe even drift down in price.

The is looking like a "must use" wise guy horse, if only underneath, tracking fifth or so.

If we get some pace, the 's stock rises.

Backing off as a clever idea. He may be the "only alternative" and take too much money, and just doesn't look good enough.

Hard to knock the top two, but for their short prices.

If doesn't "get loose" on the lead, which seems more likely than not, it doesn't have much pace advantage, even though it as a good fig last. I could see it place or show by not dominating on the front—even has a better late pace rating. I'll fade him a little.

Our man C.J. (who's on ) points out that Epicenter's close in the Derby was a bit of an illusion with horses backing up to him. Which doesn't mean can't win this as expected. Just a likely underlay odds on (Craig valued him at 2-1).

Now my stack looks more like this

,,,

Maybe the & aren't impossible (Mike Beer actually said that about ), and hats off to anyone that can make a case for them. But they don't look to inherit any pace help, since their best chances are to send, vs. way superior horses with speed.

I'm not playing + exactas, and not sure I have the audacity to box only ++. Someone has to hit the trifecta other than & , which means crushing underlays with both of them in that pool—which suggests overlays elsewhere.

,/++ exacta could work, maybe add one or two of the shots on top. Or some trifectas with only one of the top two. Something like
,,/,,,/,,
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