Rich Strike?

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

No doubt.

And now for the really really crazy part.

Rich Strike made up 15 lengths on Epicenter in the final quarter. Epicenter had just taken the lead at the top of the stretch, and Rich Strike was 15th and over 14 back. Ended up winning by 3/4s a length. Calc'd his final quarter in roughly :22 and 3 as the actual final quarter went in :25.65.

https://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRace...20220507&RN=12

I calc'd that horribly wrong. He was about 6 back at the top of the stretch. That makes a lot more sense.

[Zaf]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

I wouldn’t bet that horse if you let me bet the replay

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

21 Rich Strike will run.

• According to TFUS, he's the only certified "closer" in the field, with the best late pace rating, beating Zandon's by a point.
  
• Dam sire average winning distance: 7.6f. Fourth highest in the field (along with three others). Although, BRIS and DRF distance ratings are in the bottom third of the pack.
• Last post not a problem.
• Rider has better record than half a dozen or so in the race. But not with routes.
• One of only five entrants to have run at least seven races.
• Speed and class figs are all at the bottom of the field or next to it.
• Has to improve, what, 13 points from a 107 TFUS (on synth) just to hit the super?
• Could be overbet as longest shot in the race.

Just doesn't seem impossible to clunk up for the last slot of the super. But more likely to admirably outrun his odds at 11th.

Funny. I used TFUS today and started out looking at the Derby by seeing the FAST PACE pace projector and then isolating the 3 best late pace ratings...of course Rich Strike had the best late pace rating...and of course he won at 80-1...and of course I threw him out of contention after looking at his PPs...

The game can be so simple at times...FAST PACE...bet the highest late pace rating...BOOM 80-1...you know how many times you can be wrong at 80-1?

[luisbe]

Originally Posted by zico20

WHAT DO WE KNOW?

1) There will be no Triple Crown winner this year.

2) Never run a horse with only two starts, no matter how talented.

3) Don't bet on any horse to be in the super with only three starts unless it is a superstar. Not enough foundation.

4) Never bet a UAE horse to be in the top 4. Yet come next year thousands will be fawning all over whoever that will be. Makes no sense to waste money on an angle that has never produced a positive result.

5) Epicenter was the best horse and will win the Preakness if he runs. He looked to be getting past by Zandon and he re-rallied last 100 yards. Was way farther back than he has ever been and responded.

6)Miracles do happen!!!

Out of the 8 horses chasing the fast pace, Epi was the only one holding strong against all closers but, obviously, one.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Rich Strike .... My god what's the odds of that��

80.8-1!!!!!
Ok, sorry. I had to..Apologies for the funny

[thespaah]

Ya know, save for the 80-1 bomb, the next two were the win pool favorites and the favored entrants in the Will pays for all the horizontal wagers.
Anyway, Trainer Reed said in the post race interview that they thought they had a good one and began prepping the horse for this day.
Leon was spot on in his choice of paths. He took back, made his way to the rear of the field 4 or so from last. He kept the horse in the 3/4 path until 3 furlongs to go. He then guided Rich Strike to the inside. In mid stretch, he got set the horse down, made a right hand turn to get around a retreating Messier, then asked the horse for one final run. The horse had plenty left and won driving. I rolled back the DVR and ran it in slow mo..The horse's ears were pricked, indicating he was still sharp. I also noticed the gallop out was very strong.
Obviously the horse had a lot left.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Funny. I used TFUS today and started out looking at the Derby by seeing the FAST PACE pace projector and then isolating the 3 best late pace ratings...of course Rich Strike had the best late pace rating...and of course he won at 80-1...and of course I threw him out of contention after looking at his PPs...

The game can be so simple at times...FAST PACE...bet the highest late pace rating...BOOM 80-1...you know how many times you can be wrong at 80-1?

But to be fair these large Derby field, and I think just about every Derby pace projector since TUS came out, has had the pace as Red for the Derby.

[boys at tosconova]

horse is a tough sell.

horses were crispy fried chix up front...

i didn't know he was in he race for the most part. and even if i did he had post 20.

horse had a nice close that he never sustained deep into the stretch. against weaker horses he lost ground in the in his last two races after his move. each going further. that means most likely horses were both backing up and drawing away from him. looks he he was only passing tired horses

thing is with these derby's it's really hard to pick the closer out. and like some years it's never two of them running 1/2

great story though. similar race to mtb

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

I wouldn’t bet that horse if you let me bet the replay

he don't look good on paper, but anything with the outside post always has some type of a chance going down the long stretch.

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

• Dam sire average winning distance: 7.6f. Fourth highest in the field (along with three others). Although, BRIS and DRF distance ratings are in the bottom third of the pack.

Are these distance ratings worth a damn? Couple of pedigree guys spelled out the distance breeding pretty plainly on this thread, but you'd never know it looking at the ratings.

A more obvious indication of distance capability along with the late running style might have gotten him a longer look. And maybe the bottom of a deeper exotic.

Still. What's up with those distance ratings?

[porchy44]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Funny. I used TFUS today and started out looking at the Derby by seeing the FAST PACE pace projector and then isolating the 3 best late pace ratings...of course Rich Strike had the best late pace rating...and of course he won at 80-1...and of course I threw him out of contention after looking at his PPs...

The game can be so simple at times...FAST PACE...bet the highest late pace rating...BOOM 80-1...you know how many times you can be wrong at 80-1?

What's that old saying ? After every race a new system is born.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Going back and watching the replay, and the ride becomes more and more fascinating.

At the 1:25 mark the field is really bunching as the front end is in full collapse. RS is in 15th/16th and there are 6 horses in front of him that are outside of him. It is tight quarters, and where the split second decisions that need to be made when you have to pass well over half the field.

Move to the 1:30 mark and he is really in tight quarters now. He and Mo Donegal are about in the same path, but RS is pinched inside Simplification and he is committing to an inside run. Those 3 horses finish 1st, 4th, 5th in very different ways from here on out.

At the 1:33 mark a rail run looks more than a bit tough if not impossible. There are 6 horses in front of him that are inside of him. Still pinched in by Simplification, Sonny's mind has to be racing. He has horse, he needs room, and it has to be very hard to remain patient.

At 1:35, Summer is Tomorrow has completely backed out, and the rail is opening up. And at the 1:38 mark he is rewarded and pot commits to his rail run. At 1:41 he is fully rewarded, but it is far from over. As his rally is fully underway, he has the final decision left to make at the 1:47 mark. He wants to skim the rail, but Messier is now in full anchor mode in the 1/2 path. He makes that final split second decision, and while nearly clipping heels with Messier, ducks out into the 2/3 path to get around that tiring rival. Crown Pride gives him just enough room to squeeze in at the 1:49/1:50 mark. Now it simply comes down to if he has enough horse, which he definitely does.

Really memorable ride. We all know how difficult it is to overcome so much traffic when coming from downtown in the Derby. You need courage, patience, and no doubt about it, a lot of racing luck to pull off a rail run in the Derby. Calvin Bo-Rail has to be smiling.

https://twitter.com/NBCSports/status...2xSziEpXKc76Dw

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Going back and watching the replay, and the ride becomes more and more fascinating.

[Dahoss2002]

That horse had to be on dope . He was trying to kill his pony after the race haha

[burnsy]

It was reminiscent of the “Shoe” on Ferdinand in 1986. A masterful ride . But the pace sets the entire thing up for him to even have a chance. Someone on here berated me for trying to figure out the pace. I still don’t know how that person can possibly call themselves a horse player. The pace is almost everything in a horse race . And there are two ways bombs like that win the race. They either get an easy lead with a slow pace or in this case the pace is too hot and the race breaks down. Not that I was even close to having this horse. The only way I have hit those is the “all” button with other things. But I can’t understand how you are a member of a forum called “Pace Advantage “ and you don’t understand this. The game has become even more “one paced” IMO but yesterday you got the “sizzle” of the earlier derbies in my youth . And it makes a huge, huge difference in the results! You don’t have a prayer in this game without realizing this.