Nice! Breeders' Cup Wagering Menu gets a whole lot better with takeouts

[Andy Asaro]

Shiver my timbers. A positive change in racing for once.

We never quit,

A

http://www.breederscup.com/article/b...-championships

Excerpt:

Head2Head Wagering with 10% Takeout; Plus Additional Friday and Saturday (15% takeout) Late Pick 5s Lead the Way

LEXINGTON, Ky. (October 23, 2018) – The Breeders’ Cup today announced new and exciting wagers that are sure to test the skills of handicappers across the globe for the upcoming Breeders’ Cup World Championships at Churchill Downs on Nov. 2-3. The new additions are highlighted by a late Pick 5 wager on Friday and Saturday, as well as the popular Jackpot Super High 5, along with Head2Head wagering and daily double wagering linking Friday and Saturday races.

The complete Breeders’ Cup wagering menu and official race order for the 2018 World Championships will be announced on Wednesday, Oct. 24.

Multi-million-dollar betting pools are nothing new to the Breeders’ Cup but the introduction of a late Pick 5 on both Friday and Saturday figure to take things to a new level. The bet has quickly turned into arguably the most popular wager in the country on a day-in, day-out basis, due in large part to the extremely player-friendly 15% takeout and $.50-cent minimum wager, which the Breeders’ Cup will use as well. Couple that, along with the freshness of the wager, and the fact it will solely encompass Breeders’ Cup races, and the pools could swell to several million dollars.

Among the featured new wagers to an already blockbuster menu of multi-race bets with million dollar guarantees, is the Friday late Pick 5, dubbed the “Future Stars Friday Pick 5,” which will group all five Breeders’ Cup Juvenile races, exclusively for 2-year-olds, while Saturday, the late Pick 5 figures to be wildly successful as it will culminate with the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). In addition, should any of the three preceding Pick 5s which includes the early Pick 5 on Friday and the traditional Breeders’ Cup early Pick 5 Saturday, not have a winner, that carryover pool will be added to the Saturday late Pick 5.

[Andy Asaro]

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[Andy Asaro]

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[Andy Asaro]

I guess I may have gotten overly optimistic about the changes and yes 10% is way more than a sports bet but it's the lowest they can currently go. The late P5 change is great.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

I guess I may have gotten overly optimistic about the changes and yes 10% is way more than a sports bet but it's the lowest they can currently go. The late P5 change is great.

Pick 5
H2H

This is going to backfire as people see odds of 3-5 and 4-5 offered on a bet advertised as, and I quote:

"Fans of sports wagering could especially be enticed by these wagers, as they will essentially be offered as an even-money proposition, yet with no point spread involved. "

Did nobody bother to do the math before putting out the release?

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by cj

Pick 5
H2H

This is going to backfire as people see odds of 3-5 and 4-5 offered on a bet advertised as, and I quote:

Did nobody bother to do the math before putting out the release?

In a way I feel like wer'e inching toward lower take on higher churn wagers along with penny breakage on WPS. I tried my best to the TSG to act and they still may but I doubt it.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cj

Pick 5
H2H

This is going to backfire as people see odds of 3-5 and 4-5 offered on a bet advertised as, and I quote:

Did nobody bother to do the math before putting out the release?

To be fair, there is real money bet on head to head wagers on BC races and the KY Derby. The people that bet real money on these bets understand the odds, which at worst will have each horse at 90 cents to the dollar ( or essentially pick 'em ), but usually one odds on and one above even money. The problem, as I see it, is that it's pari-mutual, as opposed to fixed odds, so you won't really know what price you are taking until the bet closes.


It's a decent idea by them. However, I hope they have sharp people selecting the matchups. That's the key. It's trickier than some may think.

[cj]

Originally Posted by the little guy

To be fair, there is real money bet on head to head wagers on BC races and the KY Derby. The people that bet real money on these bets understand the odds, which at worst will have each horse at 90 cents to the dollar ( or essentially pick 'em ), but usually one odds on and one above even money. The problem, as I see it, is that it's pari-mutual, as opposed to fixed odds, so you won't really know what price you are taking until the bet closes.


It's a decent idea by them. However, I hope they have sharp people selecting the matchups. That's the key. It's trickier than some may think.

That is a problem too. But even so, if the wagering is split down the middle, both would pay $3.60 to win, not $3.80. There is a very real chance the horses could go off 3 to 5 and 4 to 5 when you add in breakage.

$100,000 pool

$50,000 bet on each.

$90,000 paid out after takeout

90,000 / 25,000 = 3.6

Swing the bets a little off center and you are getting 3.40 and 3.60. Advertising this the way they did is a bad look IMO.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cj

That is a problem too. But even so, if the wagering is split down the middle, both would pay $3.60 to win, not $3.80. There is a very real chance the horses could go off 3 to 5 and 4 to 5 when you add in breakage.

$100,000 pool

$50,000 bet on each.

$90,000 paid out after takeout

90,000 / 25,000 = 3.6

Swing the bets a little off center and you are getting 3.40 and 3.60. Advertising this the way they did is a bad look IMO.

Advertising is misleading?


I feel so disillusioned.

[cj]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Advertising is misleading?


I feel so disillusioned.

The $10 bet helps some obviously, should have used that in the example. But it doesn't change much at all.

I'm naive I guess. I think it is a bad idea to compare yourself favorably to sports betting when any idiot with a pencil and paper can figure out it is not a favorable comparison.

[SG4]

Very happy about the added pick 5 wagers, about time!


What do you think makes the best head to head match-ups? If you're putting favorites up against each other in a race I feel like that's not as desirable since you'd rather just take the odds on that horse to win, but if you're putting longer priced horses H2H then it's kind of weird to be caring about the back of the pack. I'd actually prefer the latter though cause say I think a 50-1 shot will outrun his odds, but not enough to make me confident they'll be close to winning (I'm looking at you Seeking the Soul), I would like to find some way to capitalize on this thought.



Lots of ways to go in setting the horses up, regional battles, speed of the speed, closer vs speed, 3yo vs older, can make for some interesting thoughts if done right, I like the fact that they floated the idea of Euro vs US instead of just 1 horse per race. I think the Distaff having a 3yo fillies vs older bet would be a perfect match-up.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cj

The $10 bet helps some obviously, should have used that in the example. But it doesn't change much at all.

I'm naive I guess. I think it is a bad idea to compare yourself favorably to sports betting when any idiot with a pencil and paper can figure out it is not a favorable comparison.

It's a fair analogy to compare it to sports betting but I don't agree with a notion that it will draw in sports bettors, or those with that mindset, anymore than it already does. However, I think you're nitpicking a bit.

They're offering something new. Of course the supposed low takeout is conceptually misleading, but it doesn't make it bad that they are offering it. Can't hurt.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by the little guy

They're offering something new. Of course the supposed low takeout is conceptually misleading, but it doesn't make it bad that they are offering it. Can't hurt.

Tell me how this "new" wager is beneficial or fun to horseplayers?

[linrom1]

The real beauty of this year's BC is the order of races:

Race 7: Sprint (2:46 p.m.)

Race 8: Mile (3:36 p.m.)

Race 9: Distaff (4:16 p.m.)

Race 10: Turf (4:56 p.m.)

Race 11: Classic (5:44 p.m.)

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by the little guy

...It's a decent idea by them. However, I hope they have sharp people selecting the matchups. That's the key. It's trickier than some may think.

Agreed. I for one, am looking forward to the bet, and hopefully there will be some good pairings.

The wager isn't totally new - I believe that H-2-H wagers were offered at least once before in the Breeder's Cup, and some of the overseas books have offered it in big races for many years. I may be thinking about some of the race books in Vegas though, not sure.

But to your point, the selection of head-to-head pairs is very critical to the attractiveness of the wager. For some reason I recall the H-2-H matchups were very poor the year they were done. But along the same lines of looking at Super Bowl props (which for the most part, are sucker bets), every now and then an intriguing pair will offer value.

It's a rare chance to invest in the overall pace or trip scenarios, that may favor or hinder certain horses, without having to rely on just the finish to cash out....