Breeders Cup 2018

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by snappit

Sectional times do not play a big part in analysis over here. Most tracks (even the big ones) do not measure sectionals. Sectional timing is still pretty much in it's infancy. There is a growing movement over here to get it in place which is led by Simon Rowlands who writes on the Timeform site and has a sectionals blog on ATR http://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sectional-spotlight. A lot of the time he takes his own times from video recordings. I'd be surprised if he didn't do some kind of analysis for the BC. He has been looking at some of the big races over here and you may find some stuff of interest on his blog. Well worth following him on twitter @RowleyfileRRR.

That is why someone who has access to sectional times has an advantage. The only problem is that since pace handicapping is in its infancy in the U.K. sectional times are only available for few tracks. I suspect that will change, however.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by snappit

Sectional times do not play a big part in analysis over here. Most tracks (even the big ones) do not measure sectionals. Sectional timing is still pretty much in it's infancy. There is a growing movement over here to get it in place which is led by Simon Rowlands who writes on the Timeform site and has a sectionals blog on ATR http://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sectional-spotlight. A lot of the time he takes his own times from video recordings. I'd be surprised if he didn't do some kind of analysis for the BC. He has been looking at some of the big races over here and you may find some stuff of interest on his blog. Well worth following him on twitter @RowleyfileRRR.

I just read Rowland's latest blog on stride analysis at the ATR website. What a promising new concept in handicapping. This should be an invaluable aide in predicting performance when a horse races at a new distance.

Thanks for the link.

[Gerard02]

Some good points, pros and cons. I think it’s better to have some kind of snapshot, instead of a blank in the Racing Form. While videos on you tube will give a broader picture, it’s still easier if you have the positions and times posted in the paper. I do watch the you tube videos and find them helpful.

[Suff]

this interview. , no byline, but Hat-tip to the host who gets right to it, .. boom, boom, boom., both days all races, Nice approach that horse players will appreciate.

WE GO THROUGH THE ENTIRE BREEDERS’ CUP CARD & GO OVER THEIR MOUNTS PER RACE! INTERESTING STUFF

INTERVIEW WITH JOCKEY AGENT JIMMY RICCIO — WHO REPRESENTS BOTH JOSE ORTIZ & JOE BRAVO.

[SeaHorseRacing]

Hi

New here.

I am a professional Gambler/trader based in the UK and have been waiting to join this site for some time.

BC is my fav meeting on the calendar and I hope I can give some insight on European runners here for you along with some knowledge for you guys.

Game Winner & Catalina Cruiser are my two value plays at 7/4 & 5/4 and I think are the best US dirt horses around imo.

[snappit]

Roaring Lion will race in the Classic as long as it doesn't turn sloppy. This is great news and credit has to be given to connections for the decision. It will be a big ask for him to win as the race will come only two weeks after the Champion Stakes victory and on a surface he has never faced before.

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by SeaHorseRacing

Hi

New here.

I am a professional Gambler/trader based in the UK and have been waiting to join this site for some time.

BC is my fav meeting on the calendar and I hope I can give some insight on European runners here for you along with some knowledge for you guys.

Game Winner & Catalina Cruiser are my two value plays at 7/4 & 5/4 and I think are the best US dirt horses around imo.

Nice to get a European perspective on the Europeans.
Looking forward to it.

[Suff]

I'm taking a hard look at Just Wonderful in here. Do you have any thoughts on this race , this filly or these euro's in general? Thanks, welcome to the board.

[SeaHorseRacing]

Originally Posted by Fuss

I'm taking a hard look at Just Wonderful in here. Do you have any thoughts on this race , this filly or these euro's in general? Thanks, welcome to the board.

Just Wonderful is very much of interest... she’s only been tested a mile once before and it does appear she is being specifically aimed at the Juvenile Fillies.

Although her best form appears to be on Good to Firm I actually believed she wants ground on the soft side. She’s by Dansili and he loves the soft ground.
Imo probably O’Briens most interesting runner. She has the most potential out of the Europeans imo.. she’s a 4/1 shot at the moment and don’t really see any overlay there yet.. if it’s soft at Churchill she has a great chance.

La Pelosa who’s currently 12/1 looks a huge price imo.
First attempted at the mile at Woodbine, look like a long term target for this race. One I will be keeping an eye on closely over the next week.

I actually think you guys have the best horse in the race. newspaperofrecord looks very tough to beat but I’ve only seen a few of her races.

[SeaHorseRacing]

In the Breedeers Cup Turf... I don’t feel I can add anything about Enable as it is likely well known how good she is..

But I do believe Waldgeist is the horse to upset the dual arc Winner. He had a horrific draw in the Arc and imo was given a poor ride by the Jockey.

This race is like DeJaVu when Golden Horn won the arc but was beaten by Found at BC turf. Found who finished 9th in the arc that year went on to win the Arc the following year. Waldgeist had a similar run to Found but finished much closer.

His last two runs have been his best performances to date and I think Enable could well bounce next week. She looked very tired in the closing 100yds in the arc.

Waldgeist is probably the most underestimated European runner at the BC this year. A nice draw and some slower conditions could be the making of Waldgeist.

[Suff]

Originally Posted by SeaHorseRacing

Although her best form appears to be on Good to Firm I actually believed she wants ground on the soft side. She’s by Dansili and he loves the soft ground.
Imo probably O’Briens most interesting runner. She has the most potential out of the Europeans imo.. she’s a 4/1 shot at the moment and don’t really see any overlay there yet.. if it’s soft at Churchill she has a great chance.

La Pelosa who’s currently 12/1 looks a huge price imo.
First attempted at the mile at Woodbine, look like a long term target for this race. One I will be keeping an eye on closely over the next week.

I actually think you guys have the best horse in the race. newspaperofrecord looks very tough to beat but I’ve only seen a few of her races.

My "guess" sort of matched your thoughts. Her worst race was on a softer turf and people (bettors) may assume, particularly if it rains in Kentucky, that she will not like it soft. But that was a big class hike, unfriendly post and trip.

When she went a mile at Curragh, she won "in hand", or as they say in EU "under wraps"...

She just worth a look.. thanks for the thoughts

[Gerard02]

I have not seen Stan Caris’ Breeders Cup checklist on American Turf Monthly. I’m guessing they cut back on his services. Very dumb. They killed their magazine as well. I hope I’m wrong and see the list for sale, sometime next week. I hope Mr. Caris will grace us with some of his wisdom. He’s very good at what he does.

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by SeaHorseRacing

Hi

New here.

I am a professional Gambler/trader based in the UK and have been waiting to join this site for some time.

BC is my fav meeting on the calendar and I hope I can give some insight on European runners here for you along with some knowledge for you guys.

Game Winner & Catalina Cruiser are my two value plays at 7/4 & 5/4 and I think are the best US dirt horses around imo.

Welcome Sea Horse.

One question I have is, what products do you use to handicap a race in Europe? It seems like the past performances we see over here, concerning euro races are severely lacking vital info like fractions, pace figures, and most importantly, trainer stats. I cant imagine handicapping a race without trainer stats.
Or am I missing the boat here?

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Gerard02

I have not seen Stan Caris’ Breeders Cup checklist on American Turf Monthly. I’m guessing they cut back on his services. Very dumb. They killed their magazine as well. I hope I’m wrong and see the list for sale, sometime next week. I hope Mr. Caris will grace us with some of his wisdom. He’s very good at what he does.

Yet another crime perpetrated against the racing public.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Redboard

Welcome Sea Horse.

One question I have is, what products do you use to handicap a race in Europe? It seems like the past performances we see over here, concerning euro races are severely lacking vital info like fractions, pace figures, and most importantly, trainer stats. I cant imagine handicapping a race without trainer stats.
Or am I missing the boat here?

I'm sure that Seahorse will best answer your question, but in the meantime I refer you to the posts by snappit and myself on this thread and I will try to answer some of your questions in this post.

Timeform and the Racing Post do give performance ratings which is the closest thing to our speed/pace figures. In the majority of races in the U.K. sectionals are not recorded and pace handicapping is in it's infancy. However, there are a growing number of tracks using TPD (Total Performance Data) technology and give sectional times for every horse in the races. A number of handicappers in the U.K. are cashing in on this not yet widespread pace knowledge which indicates how inefficiently so many races are run.

Hope this helps