Paulick on Figure Makers

[cj]

Originally Posted by Nitro

You mean by simply offering a different (and valid) opinion about the thread’s topic is “derailing the thread”?
I certainly don’t want to burst anyone’s bubble, but I sure wish I would have read Pittsburg Phil’s “Axioms” before Andy Beyer’s “Picking Winners”.

I’ll just respond to Jeff P’s very reasonable comments and I’ll leave this thread to those who seem enjoy talking “figures”.
Good luck!

No, that isn't what I mean. I'm sure you know that. I'll just never understand the need for those that don't use figures to get involved in every thread about figures. If I don't use something or I'm not interested, I move on rather than tell people how what they are doing is the wrong way.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Nitro

...He certainly did not exclusively rely on Speed figures (which is what this thread is all about) in his model.

What do people get this poppycock from anyway? What speed figure maker in today's age thinks you can win relying exclusively on speed figures? That is probably the silliest thing I've heard in a while.

Is that what the misconception is and why all the non-figure guys get their feathers all ruffled?

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by cj

What do people get this poppycock from anyway? What speed figure maker in today's age thinks you can win relying exclusively on speed figures? That is probably the silliest thing I've heard in a while.

Is that what the misconception is and why all the non-figure guys get their feathers all ruffled?

Okay I'm game!

Then do us all a favor and carefully explain what Beyer meant when he stated the following:
Figure Makers: An Open Mind Rules The Beyer Method

Our figures do not purport to tell everything about a horse. They really only tell one thing which is the most important thing in the game and that is how fast the horse ran,” said Beyer. “

How is anyone (novice or expert) supposed to interpret "is the most important thing in the game"? If it's really that significant should it, or not have a major impact on your handicapping and decision process?

[cj]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Okay I'm game!

Then do us all a favor and carefully explain what Beyer meant when he stated the following:
Figure Makers: An Open Mind Rules The Beyer Method

How is anyone (novice or expert) supposed to interpret "is the most important thing in the game"? If it's really that significant should it, or not have a major impact on your handicapping and decision process?

Most important and exclusive are two vastly different things.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Nitro

No, actually what’s absurd is anyone one believing that the use of our so-called modern measuring technology is capable of considering all of the real-world environmental effects (pointed out by Pittsburg Phil) on any given horse’s condition before, during and after a racing event. These thoroughbreds don’t run in a vacuum.

One might also want to consider who was more successful using their handicapping methodology and approach to the game.

You obviously know nothing of how people use figures to handicap. There are multiple variables effecting almost everything. Where did you get the idea that figure makers claim to be able to include all of them? All a handicapper can do is to consider the major ones with the most predictive value. Speed figures happen to be one of them - how fast a horse ran. Numerous studies have confirmed this. It is folly to not consider this. It is then up to the handicapper to include whatever other major variables he can just as Phil did. That is how all the predictive models work. If Phil had access to modern variant adjusted figures rather than the raw times of his era, he would have undoubtedly have used them. He was no fool.

Yes Pittsburgh Phil was successful in his time, but remember he was betting against other bettors at a time when they did not have modern speed figures.
In his criticism of time he was referring to the adjusted times which was all that was available at that time. Any good modern handicapper armed with modern figures would demolish him in the pari-mutual system. When bettors first began using them they were cleaning up until they became public and their competition caught up. What does that tell you of their predictive power? In today's competitive betting world one has to use the most accurate figures possible by incorporating modern technology to refine them, just as in modern warfare one as to continue to further refine their best weapons, not abandon them. In the betting wars, the one armed with the best and most relevant information has the advantage. Why throw away such a potent proven weapon like speed figures?

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by cj

What do people get this poppycock from anyway? What speed figure maker in today's age thinks you can win relying exclusively on speed figures? That is probably the silliest thing I've heard in a while.

Is that what the misconception is and why all the non-figure guys get their feathers all ruffled?

So true. Those that argue against the use of figures are using the straw man argument where they totally misstate the opponents position and turn it into a straw man easily blown away.

[Tom]

Understanding how to use figures is above the abilities of many so-called experts in this game.

They come here all the time to prove it.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by cj

Most important and exclusive are two vastly different things.

Well, obviously my question about the significance of speed figures has been conveniently side-stepped.

Pittsburg Phil’s words are inconsequential because they’re so old and out of step with today’s technology. Yet it seems his actual reasoning for downplaying “figures” which are still very valid even today are clearly being ignored.

In terms of my personal knowledge, development and use of speed figures I will only say that if guys like Bob knew what I’ve forgotten about them they might have a clue about their real value.

I would just like to pose one last question to those who might think they really understand what speed figures mean on any given day at the race track.

At the track(s) you attend where do they post the daily track surface speed chart? (Please be specific)

And how does this information impact your handicapping in relation to the speed figures you’ve developed for the horses entered on any given day?

Beware your answer may reveal exactly how much you truthfully understand about applying speed figures.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Well, obviously my question about the significance of speed figures has been conveniently side-stepped.

Pittsburg Phil’s words are inconsequential because they’re so old and out of step with today’s technology. Yet it seems his actual reasoning for downplaying “figures” which are still very valid even today are clearly being ignored.

In terms of my personal knowledge, development and use of speed figures I will only say that if guys like Bob knew what I’ve forgotten about them they might have a clue about their real value.

I would just like to pose one last question to those who might think they really understand what speed figures mean on any given day at the race track.

At the track(s) you attend where do they post the daily track surface speed chart? (Please be specific)

And how does this information impact your handicapping in relation to the speed figures you’ve developed for the horses entered on any given day?

Beware your answer may reveal exactly how much you truthfully understand about applying speed figures.

You are the one dodging.

...He certainly did not exclusively rely on Speed figures (which is what this thread is all about) in his model.

That was exactly what I quoted, nothing more, nothing less. You keep moving the goalposts. I don't need answer your silly questions as they are pure baiting. You are sadly mistaken if you think you've forgotten more than I know about making and using speed figures. Well maybe you have forgotten a lot since obviously YOU couldn't figure out how to use them successfully.

Never once have I tried to tell you that you can't win using the tote. Yet you seem fixated on telling speed figure guys that can't win using speed figures. Why is that?

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Nitro

In terms of my personal knowledge, development and use of speed figures I will only say that if guys like Bob knew what I’ve forgotten about them they might have a clue about their real value.

Word of advice. Avoid using arguments and personal insults based on your alleged handicapping superiority, which you are putting into question with each post. Stick to the issue and not make this into a pissing contest.

I'm almost glad you singled me out by name as this indicates how effective I am being in revealing the weakness of your position.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Well, obviously my question about the significance of speed figures has been conveniently side-stepped.

Pittsburg Phil’s words are inconsequential because they’re so old and out of step with today’s technology. Yet it seems his actual reasoning for downplaying “figures” which are still very valid even today are clearly being ignored.

In terms of my personal knowledge, development and use of speed figures I will only say that if guys like Bob knew what I’ve forgotten about them they might have a clue about their real value.

I would just like to pose one last question to those who might think they really understand what speed figures mean on any given day at the race track.

At the track(s) you attend where do they post the daily track surface speed chart? (Please be specific)

And how does this information impact your handicapping in relation to the speed figures you’ve developed for the horses entered on any given day?

Beware your answer may reveal exactly how much you truthfully understand about applying speed figures.

Significance is a relative term.

Pittsburgh Phil spoke to what was relevant to him at the time he was betting.

I am sure you have forgotten much about speed figures, perhaps more importantly are the things you never learned.

As for the daily track surface speed chart, don't know and don't care and don't need.

I am interested in your thoughts on tote analysis and would appreciate a separate topic to explore those more in depth.

[lansdale]

Sorry if this is somewhat off thread topic, but for those who have read Nitro's frequent quotes from Benter's article, it should be obvious that there is absolutely no evidence that Benter is referring to observation or analysis of tote (price) movement immediately preceding a race, which is the method Nitro is touting.

The first Benter quote re 'technical' analysis is a reference to the work of Ziemba (one of Benter's advisors) and Haush on tote analysis, which, though valid, was rendered obsolete by their book, not long after it was published.

The second quote, re gleaning information from the 'public model', his term for what we would call 'the odds' also has nothing to do with tote-watching, as generally understood. It refers to Benter's technique for combining the logs of his projected probabilities with those of the betting public ('the odds') to produce an improved model.

It should be obvious to the most casual reader that Benter employed a fundamental, not a technical model to handicap, and that final time/speed-related factors were among those in his model. In fact, Steve b, who sometimes posts here, was responsible for supplying speed figures to Benter's partner Alan Woods, for a number of years. It would be very interesting to have his comments on this subject in this (or another) thread.

[thaskalos]

No matter which "figures" a horseplayer opts to use...they still need to be properly interpreted. And, when we fail to interpret them properly, then, instead of blaming our shortsightedness...we conveniently blame the "figures". IMO...this is a very tough game to beat, and the "one-dimensional" handicapping approaches don't cut it anymore...be they "figures"..."replays"..."physicality"..."board-watching"..."angles"...WHATEVER. As the level of competition at the track continues to improve, each of us individually have to keep in step with this improvement...by relinquishing our "one-trick-pony" ways of thinking...and expanding upon our supposed handicapping "expertise". We can no longer afford to look at the horse-betting world, through a keyhole.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Word of advice. Avoid using arguments and personal insults based on your alleged handicapping superiority, which you are putting into question with each post. Stick to the issue and not make this into a pissing contest.

I'm almost glad you singled me out by name as this indicates how effective I am being in revealing the weakness of your position.

Kindly refrain from telling me what or what-not to do. Besides I naturally would take any advice from you with a grain of salt.
ABSOLUTELY NONE my comments reflect a personal insult of any sort.

I’m not sure what you mean by basing my comments on “alleged handicapping superiority”. You seem to have TOTALLY missed the point: I DON”T HANDICAP AT ALL!. The references I mentioned are not my words. They just happened to be quoted from 2 individuals that I personally believe have superior credibility in this game.

I’m also a bit confused by your correlation to my mentioning your name and what that has to do with the strength of my position. (Although let me warn you I did eat my Wheates this morning). Please don’t get carried away with those thoughts of grandeur, because I only inserted your name because of the inference YOU made to my knowledge of applying speed figures.

[FakeNameChanged]

I wish Trifecta Mike still posted here. He supposedly built models to handicap races that either didn't use speed figures or else used them in a very minor way. Of course this is just pure speculation by me trying to interpret his obscure or rather mysteriousl postings. He did run some trial with 10 posters on here, that used a secret method that he designed. Of course they had to give up their first born if they ever revealed the method. Please don't take that last comment seriously.