Breeders Cup Classic

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I agree that he was clearly best and would have won if he wasn't used hard putting away Frosted. I am arguing something else. I am arguing that if that rail path was not best (which IMO is a possibility) he would have won on a honest track despite putting away Frosted and was actually even better than many trip handicappers currently think. The "rail" is the question I am still asking.

Keen Ice was outside.

I wasn't sure about Keen Ice's stretch position from memory and thanks for giving the correct information.

However the problem with the "dead rail" hypothesis is twofold: first the race was run only .54 seconds off of a track record tying effort and secondly what is the trade off between the longer distance and the allegedly "dead rail."

AP if entered in the BCC this year might not win , but this is a horse coming off 6 consecutive G1 stake route races where he won 5 and came in second at 6 different racetracks of different surfaces and different configurations.

Therefore show me any other NA horse who can compare with the aforementioned.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Cratos

I wasn't sure about Keen Ice's stretch position from memory and thanks for giving the correct information.

However the problem with the "dead rail" is twofold: first the race was run only .54 seconds off of a track record tying effort and secondly what is the trade off between the longer distance and the allegedly "dead rail."

AP if entered in the BCC this year might not win , but this is a horse coming off 6 consecutive G1 stake route races where he won 5 and came in second at 6 different racetracks of different surfaces and different configurations.

Therefore show me any other NA horse who can compare with the aforementioned.

I thought the stakes and track was record was 2:00?

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

I thought the stakes and track was record was 2:00?

You are correct; I should have posted "1.54" seconds.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by Grits

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...nta-anita-work

Pharoah just keeps on rolling... and really fast.

A video will likely follow, somewhere today.

Indeed he does.......really,really fast.
I'll call your AP with a Shug star,and raise with Gary Stevens raving about Beholder after the PC......I really liked the part where he talked about her when she changed leads
I still don't know which one of these three monsters to go with.
Race of the century come Halloween don't ya know.

Honor Code: Wow!
By David Grening

Posted : 1hr 21mins ago

HONOR CODE, prepping for the Breeders' Cup Classic, just put in a brilliantly fast workout, going a half-mile -- on my watch -- in 46.14 seconds, out five-furlongs in 58.16, six furlongs in 1:11.07 and seven furlongs in 1:24.50. I took him from the half-mile pole. Colleague Mike Vesce took him from the five-furlong pole and said he went his first eighth in 13 seconds. So, if you factor that eighth in he went a mile in 1:37.50.


Stevens:
https://youtu.be/vBWqz2D3hJw

[Grits]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...ck-in-the-game

Taxicab, and the mare is taking it all in stride, this one, and the one at Keeneland. She's back to herself.

Fun times.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Grits

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...ck-in-the-game

Taxicab, and the mare is taking it all in stride, this one, and the one at Keeneland. She's back to herself.

Fun times.

I certainly hope she's 100%. For her and the race.

God, I wish Pletcher would shock us and say Liam's Map will now go in the BCC as well. The more the better.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

One of my biggest questions heading into this BC (as with any BC) is how the track is playing.

Santa Anita was nothing more than a paved highway the last 3 years.

Keeneland has been death for front end speed this entire meet thus far. There have been some dawdling paces in which even big time chalk on the front end has failed to close the deal. Will that continue, or will the track change/be changed for the BC?

Thursday and early Friday races next week will certainly be interesting to watch.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

One of my biggest questions heading into this BC (as with any BC) is how the track is playing.

Santa Anita was nothing more than a paved highway the last 3 years.

Keeneland has been death for front end speed this entire meet thus far. There have been some dawdling paces in which even big time chalk on the front end has failed to close the deal. Will that continue, or will the track change/be changed for the BC?

Thursday and early Friday races next week will certainly be interesting to watch.

Wasnt there a day at a recent BC in SA where the track was so speed favoring on Friday that they changed the track overnight and it was a little less speed favoring the next day? Peter miller won with a 200 dollar horse who went a million miles an hour on the front end and kept going, I think it might have been race 2 on the Friday card?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

People are down on AP after the Travers as much as they were up on him after the Haskell.

I see the Travers as a better race BY FAR in terms of setting him up for the BC Classic.

In fact, I will go on record as saying that was exactly the type of race AP needed.

He may not win the BC Classic...but if he's physically sound, the Travers should help him PLENTY...and anyone who has been watching this game for any amount of time should feel the same way.

I don't quite understand what you mean here. WHY was the Travers "exactly the type of race AP needed", at this stage of his campaign? Was he a horse who was "rounding into form", and in need of a tough race to get him into razor-sharp condition...or was he an already super-sharp horse, who had to endure an already arduous 3-year-old campaign? Why wouldn't a romping victory in the Travers have been an even BETTER race for the Pharoah as he aims for the BC Classic?

Here is what I think:

Because the Pharoah has been remarkably consistent during his racing career...he has never had to prove how well he can rebound off a surprising loss. When an ultra-consistent horse like the Pharoah suffers the only surprising loss of his career, then there must at least be the suspicion that something is amiss with him, and we cannot automatically assume that this loss will "benefit" him going forward...especially when we take into account the circumstances surrounding the horse's racing campaign...and the dynamics of the race in which he was defeated. As I said before...a grueling race like the Travers might have been just the race needed by a horse who was gradually rounding into form...but the Pharoah was the ANTITHESIS of such a horse. The Pharoah was ALREADY a razor-sharp horse...who had already been asked to endure a grueling 3-year-old campaign. There must be a reason why these Triple Crown winners appear as infrequently as they do.

Of course...some posters might object and say that the Travers was NOT an atypical race for the Pharoah...and that he gave just as strong a performance in that race as he did in his prior starts. These posters have already commented on the lightening-quick middle fractions of the Travers...and on how courageous the Pharoah was in turning back Frosted's challenge down the stretch.

But I saw the race a little differently:

I saw Frosted and the Pharoah battling neck-in-neck the entire way, with Frosted taking the worst of it on the outside...and with only two lengths ultimately separating the two horses at the wire. And, IMO...beating Frosted by only two lengths while you have him racing outside of you in a speed duel the entire way is hardly a "Pharoah-like" performance.

I will be looking to bet AGAINST the Pharoah in the BC Classic.

[PaceAdvantage]

Easy races don't set horses up for tougher tasks down the road. Another romp ala the Haskell would have been counter-productive in my opinion.

That's all.

I'm not saying he's going to win the BCC. And as usual, I will likely bet against him as I have done all year long. However, to think the Travers was some indication that this horse is tailing off drastically or isn't as good as we all thought would be a mistake, in my opinion.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Easy races don't set horses up for tougher tasks down the road. Another romp ala the Haskell would have been counter-productive in my opinion.

That's all.

I'm not saying he's going to win the BCC. And as usual, I will likely bet against him as I have done all year long. However, to think the Travers was some indication that this horse is tailing off drastically or isn't as good as we all thought would be a mistake, in my opinion.

As I said...I disagree. As I survey the evidence before me...I see no reason to believe that his race in the Travers could be a benefit to the Pharoah as he heads to the Classic. I predict further decline...and, perhaps...an out-of-the-money finish.

[surfdog89]

I Agree with you Pace........AP will likely bring his A Game to the Classic

[cbp]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

But I saw the race a little differently:

I saw Frosted and the Pharoah battling neck-in-neck the entire way, with Frosted taking the worst of it on the outside...and with only two lengths ultimately separating the two horses at the wire. And, IMO...beating Frosted by only two lengths while you have him racing outside of you in a speed duel the entire way is hardly a "Pharoah-like" performance.

I will be looking to bet AGAINST the Pharoah in the BC Classic.

On the dirt, typically, when you engage a pacesetter, it's on the outside. No real advantage either way. But I agree with you, and I've written earlier, that a tough race benefits a horse that needs something more to get fit; not a horse that has had a hard campaign. Espinosa needlessly abused AP in the Travers. The race hurt rather than helped him for the BC. He should've won the Travers and done so without getting gutted. He needs a much smarter ride in the BC. This is not a super horse and shouldn't be ridden that way.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by cbp

On the dirt, typically, when you engage a pacesetter, it's on the outside. No real advantage either way. But I agree with you, and I've written earlier, that a tough race benefits a horse that needs something more to get fit; not a horse that has had a hard campaign. Espinosa needlessly abused AP in the Travers. The race hurt rather than helped him for the BC. He should've won the Travers and done so without getting gutted. He needs a much smarter ride in the BC. This is not a super horse and shouldn't be ridden that way.

I disagree...and I'll gladly tell you why:

We are not talking about two horses of equal quality here. If the two horses are of equal ability...then, yes, the outside trip does not figure to be such a noticeable obstruction. But we are talking here about two horses with a great deal of difference between them, ability-wise. Plus...the Pharoah BELONGED on the lead...whereas Frosted was taken out of his element in order to engage the Pharoah at such an early stage in the race. If the torrid middle fractions caused the Pharoah to get "gutted"...then, what effect could these lightening-quick fractions be expected to have on a horse who was unaccustomed to being as close to the early pace as he found himself in the Travers?

Would such a horse still be only two lengths behind the vastly superior Pharoah at the wire...if the Pharoah gave his customary performance in that race?

[cbp]

Frosted was primed for the race. Clearly, this wasn't the same horse that fell on its face in the Belmont. I'm not buying that the different running style worked against him, however. Frosted got a comparable trip to AP: he just wasn't good enough.

I also think the early fractions weren't what gutted AP, as all the horses in the race had to ensure them. What did AP in, IMO, was going after Frosted too soon. Espinosa panicked, thinking Frosted was the horse to beat, went after him all out entering the stretch and had nothing for the suckup Keen Ice. If he lets Frosted do his thing and goes after him past midstretch, he not only blows by him and takes Keen Ice out of the equation, he also uses his horse less. A lot easier to recover from an intelligent trip.