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Old 04-11-2018, 01:44 PM   #76
cj
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If you were a trainer with a big stable, do you sell inside info? Is there even anything illegal about that?

Kee R2...2yo maidens.

Not much happened among the top 4. The 10 dropped from 5-2 to 2-1 during the load, the favorite held at 7-5, third choice held at 7-2, 4th choice when up slightly from 9-2 to 5.

10 wins.
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Old 04-11-2018, 01:51 PM   #77
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Originally Posted by Denny View Post
Poindexter, you said -

"I think it is about time for this bettor(myself) to focus the majority of his action on the multi leg exotics. Not likely someone past posting is going to put much of their money in the pick 4 or pick 5, and even if they do the rest of the legs they have to bet in advance."

Remember the Fix 6. The bet was put in after I think it was 4 legs had been completed (maybe it was 5, can't remember).

The point is they singled all the winners up to that point and then used ALL.

That's why he got caught, it was too obvious when they investigated.

But, let's just say, someone uses a few extra numbers in the already concluded races - just to take away any suspicion - will they EVER BE CAUGHT.

How do know this can't be happening now - especially in JACKPOTS!

But, any big enough pool could be targeted.

Last year at Saratoga, right near the end of the meet. There was a single winner of the new Late Pick 5. It was a highly unlikely sequence of winners. But, there was ONE winner that scooped the pool, something like 700K, if I remember. I was there that day and remember it was big and thinking to myself how could anybody come up with that sequence.

Just sayin'.
Look at the number of times the Rainbow 6 carried over. Do you think if some one could do this that pool would carry over the # of times it has? The fact that it keeps being a carry over say's that it is not being done.
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Old 04-11-2018, 01:52 PM   #78
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First of all, the whales don't have to be THAT brilliant. They just have to be better than you or me or the rest of the people out there. That isn't all that hard to do, considering the VAST, VAST majority of players are long term losers.

Second, yes, they bet a ton of money in the last minute or less. And most certainly that money isn't going to make it to the tote until after the latch springs on the gate. Depending on the timing cycle, it can take a good 15-30 seconds from the time the gate opens for the last tote cycle to update.

But you think it's somebody or some group of sombodies, who are able to wager close to $100,000 at a place like Keeneland, for example, AFTER the race starts.

And nobody in a position of authority notices...or if they do, they just let it go.

I don't buy that for one second.

Sorry if dreamland was too harsh for you. But around here, I've always called it as I see it...as have my many critics towards me. We're all big boys and girls around here. No need to harp on the dreamland comment. If I can take what you guys dish out, you can take what I dish out in return.
Here's the confusing part, though. I swear that I've seen races where the horse's odds change as the horse crosses the wire. What's that...an even LONGER delay caused by the game's "ancient" money-transfering software?
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Old 04-11-2018, 01:53 PM   #79
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Originally Posted by cj View Post
If you were a trainer with a big stable, do you sell inside info? Is there even anything illegal about that?

Kee R2...2yo maidens.

Not much happened among the top 4. The 10 dropped from 5-2 to 2-1 during the load, the favorite held at 7-5, third choice held at 7-2, 4th choice when up slightly from 9-2 to 5.

10 wins.
I doubt it. In my experience most trainers feel any inside info is for the owner that pays the bills and what they do with that is up to them. I would think if word got out that a trainer was selling this info he would lose most or all of his owners.
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Old 04-11-2018, 02:01 PM   #80
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Delay?

I think what John Galt said should an option on the poll. Otherwise I'm on the "something else" until proven otherwise.

With the antique tote computer network being employed, it was my first thought too.

Too much "delay" built into the system. Who knows how long it takes for all that money to reach the final destination - and it's coming from ao many different places, with hubs all over the place.

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Old 04-11-2018, 02:01 PM   #81
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny View Post
Poindexter, you said -

"I think it is about time for this bettor(myself) to focus the majority of his action on the multi leg exotics. Not likely someone past posting is going to put much of their money in the pick 4 or pick 5, and even if they do the rest of the legs they have to bet in advance."

Remember the Fix 6. The bet was put in after I think it was 4 legs had been completed (maybe it was 5, can't remember).

The point is they singled all the winners up to that point and then used ALL.

That's why he got caught, it was too obvious when they investigated.

But, let's just say, someone uses a few extra numbers in the already concluded races - just to take away any suspicion - will they EVER BE CAUGHT.

How do know this can't be happening now - especially in JACKPOTS!

But, any big enough pool could be targeted.

Last year at Saratoga, right near the end of the meet. There was a single winner of the new Late Pick 5. It was a highly unlikely sequence of winners. But, there was ONE winner that scooped the pool, something like 700K, if I remember. I was there that day and remember it was big and thinking to myself how could anybody come up with that sequence.

Just sayin'.
True, but 2 things. 1)after the fix 6 scandal I assume racing put every resource they had into making sure than never happened again. In doing so I am sure they plugged up all of the exposure(but anything is possible). 2) payoffs on these wagers are easily measured. If it is a pick 6, I just look at the pick 3 parlay as a gauge. If pick 6 payoffs are falling significantly below that at certain tracks, probably a good sign you need to stay away. Pick 4's can be measured against 4 horse parlays or daily double parlays. Pick 5's can be meausured against the first double and late pick 3 parlay or of course a 5 horse parlay.As an observer we can see if we are being dealt a fair hand over time.

If a horse opens up 3 at break, and drops from 6/5 to 3/5 or gets left at the gate and jumps from 2-1 to 3-1, why would we assume that the Whales got lucky. A more logical conclusion is past posting is going on. The onus is on racing to prove they are dealing a fair hand, not on us to prove they aren't. Just like when I used to go to Vegas, and they shuffled a new deck and showed me the entire deck so I know they weren't pulling 10s out of the deck at the blackjack table.
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Old 04-11-2018, 02:03 PM   #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny View Post
Remember the Fix 6. The bet was put in after I think it was 4 legs had been completed (maybe it was 5, can't remember).

The point is they singled all the winners up to that point and then used ALL.

That's why he got caught, it was too obvious when they investigated.
The bet was placed before the first race went off, and it was structured as X/X/X/X/ALL/ALL. The original runners in the first four races were irrelevant. After the fourth leg (at which point the specific ticket details are sent to the host tote), a tote employee went back and altered the first four legs to match the winning horses.

The real reason they finally got caught was a 43-1 longshot that made theirs the only winning ticket. Had the pool been split up among several winners, pretty good chance that they walk away with a couple hundred thousand and no one bothers to look into it any closer.

And the thing people forget is, they did get away with it for a long time before that Breeder's Cup.

http://abcnews.go.com/Primetime/story?id=132429&page=1

Quote:
Harn thought of a more lucrative way to scam the tracks. They would hit the "Pick Six," a bet which requires picking the winners of six consecutive races. They would test the scheme at Belmont Park, New York's biggest racetrack.

Here's how they did it: Harn would phone in a "pick six" bet using DaSilva's off-track betting account. The winners he chose did not matter.

Following the fourth race, Harn would use his computer access as a programmer at Autotote and, within the span of 20 minutes, exploit a loophole which allowed him to change the bets before the results were recorded.

For the last two races, he did what was known as "betting the wheel," which was to select every horse to win. "So you can't lose," DaSilva adds.

The first pick six bet netted more than $100,000. "They sent me my money and they congratulated me on my style of betting," says DaSilva.

Meanwhile, racing officials were completely unaware of the scams. "It laid under the radar screen," says Bill Nader of the New York Racing Association. "It was a relatively small payoff. It wasn't something that was very noticeable." This, of course, was the beauty of the scam, or so DaSilva and Harn thought.
The whole article is a pretty interesting read. Apparently before getting into the Pick 6 scams, they were making about $6k a month by finding unclaimed winners on the tote and getting them cashed at the track.
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Old 04-11-2018, 02:15 PM   #83
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DaSilva says that hackers are a step ahead of the authorities:

https://disruptivetechnologists.com/...tting-scandal/
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Old 04-11-2018, 02:33 PM   #84
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Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
Look at the number of times the Rainbow 6 carried over. Do you think if some one could do this that pool would carry over the # of times it has? The fact that it keeps being a carry over say's that it is not being done.
Jay,
Most of all of the carryovers are because there are multiple winners.
it's only very seldom that there's one or more live combination - and it's usually some impossible longshot.
No one is going to do it for a share of that day's play.
It would only be tempting when the Jackpot is really big.
It's not going to happen very often. - but, all you would need is for it to happen once. Then you take a nice vacation and come back when the pool gets really tempting again.
Just having a little fun. (What i said is pure speculation. But, not impossible.)
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Old 04-11-2018, 02:42 PM   #85
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AE,
Looks like I got some of it mixed up a little.
Thanks for more info. I was going from memory only.

But, think my main point is still valid, what I was really going for.

That someone has access to the pools after the sequence begins and bets can be put in, altered, or even cancelled AFTER the sequence begins if they want.
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Old 04-11-2018, 02:50 PM   #86
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First of all, the whales don't have to be THAT brilliant. They just have to be better than you or me or the rest of the people out there. That isn't all that hard to do, considering the VAST, VAST majority of players are long term losers.

Second, yes, they bet a ton of money in the last minute or less. And most certainly that money isn't going to make it to the tote until after the latch springs on the gate. Depending on the timing cycle, it can take a good 15-30 seconds from the time the gate opens for the last tote cycle to update.

But you think it's somebody or some group of sombodies, who are able to wager close to $100,000 at a place like Keeneland, for example, AFTER the race starts.

And nobody in a position of authority notices...or if they do, they just let it go.

I don't buy that for one second.

Sorry if dreamland was too harsh for you. But around here, I've always called it as I see it...as have my many critics towards me. We're all big boys and girls around here. No need to harp on the dreamland comment. If I can take what you guys dish out, you can take what I dish out in return.

Trust me, dreamland is not too harsh for me.

I want to bring up my first day of finance class some 30+ years ago. The professor has a big jar of jelly beans and asks everyone in the class to guess how many jelly beans. Some people just make random guess, some are going up to the jar creating their own techniques for measuring etc. The point was to illustrate that each of us had no clue how to determine, but if you averaged our opinion is would be a fairly good estimate and likely a lot closer than our individual opinion. He was trying to illustrate an efficient market.

Now if the horse racing market(before the whale bets) was truly efficient, the whale could not win. Every horse and every exotic would be exactly at the takeout percentage (So if if was a 15% takeout every horse would be at a .85 expectation) and since there rebates are always less than the pool takeout they would have to lose over time. We know they are winning with the rebates so obviously the markets are not truly efficient(although they make them a lot more efficient).

That being said, the public money should be fairly efficient. There should not be a lot of horses that the public is making 9-1, that they are able to pound to 9/2 that are winning at a 18 to 20% rate. The more it happens, the more suspicious I get. They are very good obviously, but they seem a little too good sometimes. Now what also can be going on is pool manipulation.
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Old 04-11-2018, 02:54 PM   #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Race 1 at Aqu
...Guess who won?
I tracked one race. Mahoning Valley Race 5

Reached the gate:
1: 6-1
2: 45-1
3: 50-1
4: 4-1
5: 7-2
6: 12-1
7: 9-2
8: 8-1
9: 2-1

Broke from the gate:
1: 7-1
2: 53-1
3: 62-1
4: 4-1
5: 7-2
6: 12-1
7: 9-2
8: 8-1
9: 2-1

Crossed the finish line:
1: 6-1
2: 66-1
3: 83-1
4: 4-1
5: 4-1
6: 14-1
7: 3-1
8: 8-1
9: 2-1

(By the way, to make sure, I took screen shots at each of these intervals)

Exactly one horse moved significantly in odds and it was #7. Can you guess who won?
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Old 04-11-2018, 03:06 PM   #88
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Keeneland Race 4:

I didn't check all the horses, but the 2 was 7/1 in the gate, 6/1 after the gate opened, and 5/1 near the turn for home.

She won.
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Old 04-11-2018, 07:31 PM   #89
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If nobody is past posting, if there is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.....NOTHING going on at the windows after the gates have opened, why would anybody have any objection to closing the windows, say, 3MTP? What advantage is somebody getting between 3MTP and 0MTP? The horses aren't racing, the gates aren't open, it's the same money flow. Those that are getting their bets in at the very last second could do the exact same thing at 3:01MTP. Then the odds would be finalized before the gate closed(edit: OPENED). Then when that 5/1 at 4MTP closes at 5/2 at 3MTP, nobody has any thing to object about. Supposedly, that's exactly what's happening, except at 0MTP and the break rather than 4MTP and 3MTP.

So why the objection? The only explanation is somebody is getting something from 3MTP to 0MTP to the break... and perhaps after the break. If there is nothing going on, and everybody knows the gates(edit: WINDOWS) close at 3MTP, everything that is supposedly happening now could happen exactly as it does, just 3 minutes earlier. There is no objection to closing the windows early that makes sense if everything is on the up and up. NONE.

Edit: Sorry. Kind of a sloppy post.

Last edited by ultracapper; 04-11-2018 at 07:44 PM.
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Old 04-11-2018, 07:33 PM   #90
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If nobody is past posting, if there is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.....NOTHING going on at the windows after the gates have opened, why would anybody have any objection to closing the windows, say, 3MTP? What advantage is somebody getting between 3MTP and 0MTP? The horses aren't racing, the gates aren't open, it's the same money flow. Those that are getting their bets in at the very last second could do the exact same thing at 3:01MTP. Then the odds would be finalized before the gate closed. Then when that 5/1 at 4MTP closes at 5/2 at 3MTP, nobody has any thing to object about. Supposedly, that's exactly what's happening, except at 0MTP and the break rather than 4MTP and 3MTP.

So why the objection? The only explanation is somebody is getting something from 3MTP to 0MTP to the break... and perhaps after the break. If there is nothing going on, and everybody knows the gates close at 3MTP, everything that is supposedly happening now could happen exactly as it does, just 3 minutes earlier. There is no objection to closing the windows early that makes sense if everything is on the up and up. NONE.
A horse might poop the wrong way in those last three minutes...or...God Forbid...there MIGHT be a dreaded

LATE SCRATCH

All the excuses given for why are lame. Except they hold all this glorious weight with certain people, which is why when this experiment was tried, it failed miserably. I suppose the tracks somehow discovered they were losing some money doing it this way, and that was the end of that.

By the way, I'm against closing pools early because it is my belief that past posting isn't happening. And it certainly won't eliminate the major problem going on these days...that of a horse going into the gate at Keeneland at 9-1 and ending up in the winner's circle at 9/2, and nobody had a chance to react to a 50% cut in price in the last 20 seconds.

Closing the pools early will still lead to the same exact scenario. Except you'll know before the gates open that you've been screwed...you won't have to wait until the race is over.
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