Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 09-15-2023, 04:30 PM   #1
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
WORTHY OF A THREAD OF ITS OWN. FORMULA'S 500 EXACTA RACE STUDY

THERE ARE TWO SEGMENTS WITH SIGNIFICANT PROFITS.
THE QUESTION IS, WILL THESE PROFITABLE SEGMENTS REVERT TO THE MEAN IN THE NEXT 500 RACES. I WILL WORK ON THAT.

Attached Images
File Type: png CHART 1 09-14-2023.png (30.0 KB, 46 views)
File Type: png CHART 2 09-14-2023.png (44.2 KB, 40 views)
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill

Last edited by formula_2002; 09-15-2023 at 04:34 PM.
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-15-2023, 05:25 PM   #2
elhelmete
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,730
Have you placed a bet yet?
elhelmete is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-15-2023, 05:33 PM   #3
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
Quote:
Originally Posted by elhelmete View Post
Have you placed a bet yet?
Nope. At this point betting is a distraction. I'm onto bigger things, like the next 500 race!!
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-16-2023, 03:33 PM   #4
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
There is one additional element which is not charted. It's the one that has held my interest. It's a "play", " no play" designation. I'll chart it shortly along with yesterday's results. I have a touch of the gout today, slowing me down a bit. However I am looking at the belmont 4th race. 2nd choice is the 6. Just need the bet size calculation.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill

Last edited by formula_2002; 09-16-2023 at 03:39 PM.
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-16-2023, 08:14 PM   #5
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
YESTERDAY'S RESULTS FOR ALL SEGMENTS
$1 EXACTA RETURN $1.04

Attached Images
File Type: png RESULTS 09-15-2023.png (5.2 KB, 13 views)
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-17-2023, 09:51 AM   #6
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
2-DAY RESULTS FOR ALL SEGMENTS. 42 RACES
$1 EXACTA RETURN $0.80

Attached Images
File Type: png day 2 09-16-2023.png (6.4 KB, 1 views)
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-18-2023, 12:20 AM   #7
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
3-DAY RESULTS FOR ALL SEGMENTS. 61 RACES
$1 EXACTA RETURN remains at $0.80

Attached Images
File Type: png day 3 09-17-2023.png (6.6 KB, 6 views)
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-18-2023, 11:37 PM   #8
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
4-DAY RESULTS FOR ALL SEGMENTS. 86 RACES
$1 EXACTA RETURN INCREASED TO $0.90

I BROKE OUT THE SEGMENTS 1.1 AND 3 THAT COMBINED FOR A PROFIT OF $1.01 ON TH EDOLLAR.

I STILL NEED TO PRESENT THE YEA AND NAY PLAYS

Attached Images
File Type: png day 4 09-18-2023.png (11.3 KB, 3 views)
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill

Last edited by formula_2002; 09-18-2023 at 11:51 PM.
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-19-2023, 04:37 PM   #9
elhelmete
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,730
at best a one-penny return is worthy of a thread of its own?
elhelmete is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-19-2023, 11:38 PM   #10
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
5-DAY RESULTS FOR ALL EXACTA SEGMENTS. 116 RACES
$1 EXACTA RETURN WAS $0.78

I BROKE OUT THE EXACTA SEGMENTS 1.1 AND 3 WHICH COMBINED TO RETURN $0.94 ON THE DOLLAR

ADDITIONALLY, THE WIN BET SEGMENTS 1.1 AND 3 COMBINED TO RETURN A FLAT BET WIN PROFIT OF $1.10, WINNING 16 OF 63 RACES.

AN OBSERVATION THE 1.1 EXACTA SEGMENT IF OFFERING A POSITIVE RETURN BUT NOT WINNING THEIR SHARE.

THE 3 EXACTA SEGMENT IS WINNING THEIR SHARE BUT OFFERING POOR RETURNS.

Attached Images
File Type: png day 5 09-19-2023.png (15.0 KB, 4 views)
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-21-2023, 12:29 AM   #11
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
6-DAY RESULTS FOR ALL EXACTA SEGMENTS. 151 RACES
$1 EXACTA RETURN WAS $0.83

I BROKE OUT THE EXACTA SEGMENTS 1.1 AND 3 WHICH IN 80 RACES, COMBINED TO RETURN $0.99 ON THE DOLLAR

ADDITIONALLY, THE WIN BET SEGMENTS 1.1 AND 3 COMBINED TO RETURN A FLAT BET WIN PROFIT OF $1.03, WINNING 19 OF 80 RACES.

Attached Images
File Type: png day 6 09-20-2023.png (14.9 KB, 4 views)
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-21-2023, 11:53 AM   #12
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
I need to be thankful to the "Late Money Bettors" for my biggest win of the day.
Pen race 2 which was rated as my segment 3 class.
the significant late money went this way:
#7, probability increased by 141%
#9, probability increased by 181 %
#10, probability increased by 106%

they all lost
my winner, #5 probability decreased by 18%

Attached Images
File Type: png LATE MONEY pen R2 9-20-2023 .png (30.8 KB, 3 views)
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-21-2023, 02:39 PM   #13
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
here is an interesting point regarding the segments 1.1 and 3.

in the 500 out of sample races the betting choice returned $0.97 exacta dollars in over 150 races.
in the current out of sample races they returned $1.08.

I will follow up with this.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-22-2023, 12:15 AM   #14
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
here is an interesting point regarding the segments 1.1 and 3.

in the 500 out of sample races the betting choice returned $0.97 exacta dollars in over 150 races.
in the current out of sample races they returned $1.08.

I will follow up with this.
after today's race that figure went up to $1.10
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-22-2023, 12:21 AM   #15
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
7-DAY RESULTS FOR ALL EXACTA SEGMENTS. 181 RACES
$1 EXACTA RETURN WAS $0.78

I BROKE OUT THE EXACTA SEGMENTS 1.1 AND 3 WHICH IN 101 RACES, COMBINED TO RETURN $0.92 ON THE DOLLAR

ADDITIONALLY, THE WIN BET SEGMENTS 1.1 AND 3 COMBINED TO RETURN A FLAT BET WIN PROFIT OF $ 0.97, WINNING 23 OF 101 RACES.

Attached Images
File Type: png day 7 09-21-2023.png (15.3 KB, 4 views)
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
How do you primarily find bettable horses?
Make a formal odds line - 21.70%
23 Votes
Rank the horses in order of preference & compare it to the odds - 21.70%
23 Votes
Feel - 12.26%
13 Votes
Only play against short priced horses I dislike - 5.66%
6 Votes
Look for value oriented trips, angles, situations - 33.02%
35 Votes
Other (describe) - 5.66%
6 Votes
Total Votes: 106
This poll is closed.
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:06 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.