Tom Brohamer's book

[Jingle]

Parts & Tom

I agree 100% with you guys on MPH but I'm a little confused. I have been using ver 1.3 (1995) with the Bris download 2.0 (1995) which is the last and best version that Ken programmed. Shortly after that, MPH went to Trackmaster ver 1.04 but it did not include the automatic paceline(s) selection. I'm not sure either if Trackmaster's MPH includes a track profiler, a modeler and Quirin Pace & Speed numbers which is an add-on module. (Ver 1.3)

Hope you guys had the $151. horse in the 8th at Aqu on Sun. It was the #1 pick and fit the Model to a tee. I didn't have it as I'm fighting a bout with pneumonia. Also, I'm not sure I would have had the balls to bet more than a couple of bucks on it. (Its a disease called chicken-Little or Just Plain Stupid.)

[Partsnut]

Jingle:

Parts & Tom

I agree 100% with you guys on MPH but I'm a little confused. I have been using ver 1.3 (1995) with the Bris download 2.0 (1995) which is the last and best version that Ken programmed. Shortly after that, MPH went to Trackmaster ver 1.04 but it did not include the automatic paceline(s) selection. I'm not sure either if Trackmaster's MPH includes a track profiler, a modeler and Quirin Pace & Speed numbers which is an add-on module. (Ver 1.3)

Hope you guys had the $151. horse in the 8th at Aqu on Sun. It was the #1 pick and fit the Model to a tee. I didn't have it as I'm fighting a bout with pneumonia. Also, I'm not sure I would have had the balls to bet more than a couple of bucks on it. (Its a disease called chicken-Little or Just Plain Stupid.)

Jingle, the first thing you have to do is:
Get better and feel well. I wish you a fast recovery from your illness.

MPH 1.3 and MPH 1.4 are both decent Brohamer programs.
I personally use Synergism 2. It's a lot faster for me to do a full card. I also find it to be more accurate.
I try and apply the appropriate Brohamer factors to the way the race sets up and the use of the prior charts (last 2 days) to see how the track is running.
I don't model or profile because it has never worked for me.

[redeye007]

I found it interesting that the last 6 races at sax 0n 3/27/10 were won by the 1st or 2nd ranked brohamer SP horse.

[lsosa54]

Originally Posted by redeye007

I found it interesting that the last 6 races at sax 0n 3/27/10 were won by the 1st or 2nd ranked brohamer SP horse.

It does depend a bit on the specific pace composition of each race, but SAX favors SP on the poly, esp. in routes. On the turf, it has been favoring EP and early positioning, esp. at 8F. I even had an EP winner at 1 1/8 m, which typically favors SP.

Just keep track of it by distance and patterns will develop for you. BTW, the above is based on my handicapping and my paceline choices - yours may vary.

[First_Place]

Originally Posted by Jingle

Parts & Tom

I agree 100% with you guys on MPH but I'm a little confused. I have been using ver 1.3 (1995) with the Bris download 2.0 (1995) which is the last and best version that Ken programmed. Shortly after that, MPH went to Trackmaster ver 1.04 but it did not include the automatic paceline(s) selection. I'm not sure either if Trackmaster's MPH includes a track profiler, a modeler and Quirin Pace & Speed numbers which is an add-on module. (Ver 1.3)

Hope you guys had the $151. horse in the 8th at Aqu on Sun. It was the #1 pick and fit the Model to a tee. I didn't have it as I'm fighting a bout with pneumonia. Also, I'm not sure I would have had the balls to bet more than a couple of bucks on it. (Its a disease called chicken-Little or Just Plain Stupid.)

Aqueduct was closed on Sunday (2/28). Are you talking about Saturday's 8th race where the winner paid $105.00?

FP

[First_Place]

I meant 3/28.

FP

[Jingle]

Sorry, my error. It was the 8th race on 3-27-2010--Brendans's Warrior and it paid $105.00

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Jingle

Sorry, my error. It was the 8th race on 3-27-2010--Brendans's Warrior and it paid $105.00

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6697

Looks like Brohamer, Match Up, various Sartin flavours had a handle on it.

Ted

[Tom]

Right out of the Yellow Manual - watch those 3-3-3 horses.

[First_Place]

Originally Posted by Jingle

Sorry, my error. It was the 8th race on 3-27-2010--Brendans's Warrior and it paid $105.00

No problem.

FP

[First_Place]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6697

Looks like Brohamer, Match Up, various Sartin flavours had a handle on it.

Ted

Black Magic had it too, Ted, using default paceline selections in conservative LASST and positional mode (a la The Master Magician), respectively. However, ya just don't play the top rated (lowest odds) horse in the BLAM oddsline--unlike some misguided users. You still need to look at other screens and do some good ol' fashioned handicapping and double check the program's paceline selection before you lays yer money down.



FP

[Donnie]

From the past 20 6 F Races at SA:

Factor	Plays  Top1   Top2 	Top3	Top4	Rtng
						
PER	17	47%	88%	88%	94%	65
A/P	17	41%	71%	82%	94%	55
VEL	17	35%	65%	82%	82%	50
(K)	20	40%	65%	80%	85%	50
HTR	20	25%	60%	75%	85%	45
FR2	17	18%	53%	76%	88%	40
PAC	17	29%	47%	65%	94%	40
E/P	17	29%	41%	59%	88%	37
S/P	17	24%	47%	53%	76%	36
TRN	20	15%	55%	60%	75%	36
JKY	20	20%	40%	70%	80%	36
F/X	17	24%	41%	59%	65%	35
L/P	17	24%	24%	59%	82%	29
FR3	17	18%	29%	47%	65%	27
PED	20	15%	30%	40%	70%	25
WK	20	20%	35%	40%	50%	25
FR1	17	12%	29%	35%	71%	22

Looks like it would be a smart move to play A/P with a smattering of PER numbers from HTR.

[Donnie]

At 8.0F @ SA:

Factor	Plays	Top1	Top2	Top3	Top4	Rtng
						
PER	15	47%	67%	73%	80%	51
(K)	15	40%	67%	80%	87%	47
TRN	15	47%	53%	67%	67%	39
PAC	15	33%	53%	67%	87%	37
F/X	15	27%	40%	60%	80%	36
E/P	15	40%	53%	53%	73%	35
A/P	15	27%	47%	73%	73%	35
VEL	15	27%	53%	60%	73%	35
S/P	15	27%	40%	60%	67%	34
HTR	15	33%	47%	67%	80%	33
FR3	15	20%	33%	53%	67%	31
JKY	15	20%	47%	53%	73%	31
FR1	15	33%	40%	60%	60%	30
L/P	15	13%	40%	53%	60%	27
PED	15	13%	40%	53%	67%	27
FR2	15	13%	47%	53%	53%	25
WK	15	7%	20%	40%	73%	18

PER is kicking tail = the last 8 races were won by the #1 or #2 rated per, with an ave mutuel of $8.50.

[Granite]

Originally Posted by Donnie

At 8.0F @ SA:

Factor	Plays	Top1	Top2	Top3	Top4	Rtng
						
PER	15	47%	67%	73%	80%	51
(K)	15	40%	67%	80%	87%	47
TRN	15	47%	53%	67%	67%	39
PAC	15	33%	53%	67%	87%	37
F/X	15	27%	40%	60%	80%	36
E/P	15	40%	53%	53%	73%	35
A/P	15	27%	47%	73%	73%	35
VEL	15	27%	53%	60%	73%	35
S/P	15	27%	40%	60%	67%	34
HTR	15	33%	47%	67%	80%	33
FR3	15	20%	33%	53%	67%	31
JKY	15	20%	47%	53%	73%	31
FR1	15	33%	40%	60%	60%	30
L/P	15	13%	40%	53%	60%	27
PED	15	13%	40%	53%	67%	27
FR2	15	13%	47%	53%	53%	25
WK	15	7%	20%	40%	73%	18

PER is kicking tail = the last 8 races were won by the #1 or #2 rated per, with an ave mutuel of $8.50.

Interesting hit rates. What do you consider a no play? A race with first timers?

[Donnie]

Yeah....those are races where the winner was a FTS or they didn't have pace numbers (overseas shippers is a possibility).