Type Of Software I'm seeking.

[Flysofree]

I want a program that ranks by percentage (1 to 100%) every horse in a race chances to win this race. It must have the ability to recalculate % chances after scratches or announced and If/when a race is moved to the dirt.
Has anyone seen exactly what I'm talking about or is this a pipe dream?

Obviously it would have to look at the connections jockey trainer and workouts also especially for first time starters. I guess it would be like a Watson for horse racing.

[Capper Al]

Software just crystalizes factors such as pace and speed. They can say overall we hit a winner 30% of the time. Morning lines are just estimates. No one in the business can give you want you want.

[Flysofree]

Pace and speed are 2 parts of 100% circle.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Flysofree

I want a program that ranks by percentage (1 to 100%) every horse in a race chances to win this race. It must have the ability to recalculate % chances after scratches or announced and If/when a race is moved to the dirt.
Has anyone seen exactly what I'm talking about or is this a pipe dream?

Obviously it would have to look at the connections jockey trainer and workouts also especially for first time starters. I guess it would be like a Watson for horse racing.

What you are looking for is exactly what any handicapper is trying to discover since the beginning of the time.

Here you can read a related extract from the book I am writing about horse racing that might help you to understand the underlined process..

[098poi]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

What you are looking for is exactly what any handicapper is trying to discover since the beginning of the time.

Here you can read a related extract from the book I am writing about horse racing that might help you to understand the underlined process..

Looks like a good read, keep us updated.

[Tom]

You are looking for a program that does an odds line?

[MPRanger]

Originally Posted by Flysofree

I want a program that ranks by percentage (1 to 100%) every horse in a race chances to win this race. It must have the ability to recalculate % chances after scratches or announced and If/when a race is moved to the dirt.
Has anyone seen exactly what I'm talking about or is this a pipe dream?

Obviously it would have to look at the connections jockey trainer and workouts also especially for first time starters. I guess it would be like a Watson for horse racing.

Make your own with Excel


A ------------------B

250 --------- 0.203252033
225 --------- 0.182926829
265 --------- 0.215447154
175 --------- 0.142276423
193 --------- 0.156910569
122 --------- 0.099186992


1230 -------------- 1

------------------------------------------------------------------
Just plug this in:

I just made up the 250,225,265... etc; This would represent your power
rating however you come up with it.

The 1230 is the sum of the power rating numbers.

In column B you divide each number in column A by the total of column A
Column A total formula =SUM(A1:A9)

Column B formulas

=A1/A9
=A2/A9
=A3/A9
=A4/A9

ETC;

The total of column B will = 1

If one of your horses gets scratched, delete the row and it will automatically update your line.

To make it easy, give your non contenders 20% of the line in accordance
with the 80-20 rule.

Do that by adding this to the end of each formula in column b ---- *.8
So the formula will be =(A1/A9)*.8

This way you do not have to make a row for your non contenders. Just leave them out.

Doing it this way the sum of column B will be .8

For some good ideas on constructing your line see Dick Mitchell's Common Sense Betting.

His book will also show you how to adjust for field size.

[green80]

Originally Posted by Flysofree

I want a program that ranks by percentage (1 to 100%) every horse in a race chances to win this race. It must have the ability to recalculate % chances after scratches or announced and If/when a race is moved to the dirt.
Has anyone seen exactly what I'm talking about or is this a pipe dream?

Obviously it would have to look at the connections jockey trainer and workouts also especially for first time starters. I guess it would be like a Watson for horse racing.

The problem is that the best horse doesn't always win the race, not by a long shot. Your money will be made when the crowd underestimates a horse's chance of winning. It may be the third horse in your oddsline that you show has a 20% chance of winning and the crowd only gives him a 10% chance, that your money will be made on.

There are many software programs that will assign an oddsline and you can easily convert these to percentages. An accurate oddsline is another matter.

[DLigett]

WagerMate tries to do most of what you want:
http://wagermathematics.com/

The "Win %" in the reports at the bottom of the page is supposed to be the odds of winning.

[crestridge]

JCapper is what you're looking for, and supplement JCap with Bayesian calc., (read Nate Silver's Signal/Noise), and wow, you'll be set!!

[traveler]

What are you willing to pay?

Have you even taken the time to see what programs are available and what they offer?

Why are you even worried about playing a few races that come off the turf? Skip them, move on.

I'd suggest if you want Watson, do a search on it, you might be surprised.

No program will give you an "accurate" line, they are all just good guesses.

Probably find a 15% off coupon for something on CyberMonday.

This makes think I should start playing again. Pax Vobiscum

[chaz63]

Bris Profitline isn't bad for giving "fair odds". And it's free with TwinSpires. I'm sure there is better out there if your willing to pay good $$. But for the price(free), it's not bad. If I see something like a 15-1 ML show up as 7-1 or so on their "fair odds", I'll throw it in my horizontal tickets sometimes, I've made some good hits doing that, looking for a price.

[Dave Schwartz]

As Delta said so accurately,

What you are looking for is exactly what any handicapper is trying to discover since the beginning of the time.

I can't tell you how many people I have heard from over the years who begin with, "Does your software make a good line?"

The answer is that the software (anybody's software) only makes a line as good as the methodology/systemology behind it.

Learned guys like Delta, me and many others on PA have devised ways to make a "good line," but the question always comes down to, "Is it good enough?"

Consider Ranger's learned reply as well. He offered a weighting system that produces a line. Is it "good enough?" Well, that depends upon several things:

1. How good that 1st column he showed really is - what he called the "Power Number."
2. How good his internal algorithm converts that power number into a probability.


At the end of the day, it all boils down to those two facts and one more:
1. The "number" for each horse
2. The "formula" used to convert that number into a probability.


The 3rd thing is your ability to estimate the final odds, which. ultimately comes down to two more things:
1. A "number" for each horse that predicts how the public will bet the horse.
2. A "formula" used to convert that number into a pool percentage.



My opinion is that the best you can hope for in any software that produces a "line," is that:
1. It is flexible in how you produce the "horse numbers."
2. It provides some mechanism for building the formulas to convert those numbers into what you need.
3. Some reasonable testing facility to see how your work is progressing.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

PS: I am not saying that the only way you beat the game is by making a line, predicting odds.

[raybo]

As Dave said, one of the failings of most lines I've seen is the rating you're using for the horses. That rating must be tailored to the race type, the probable running dynamics of the field, the condition of the track, the configuration of the track (what types of horses it favors, and what types it doesn't favor), any path biases that may exist, etc., etc., etc..

Another factor is, do you include the takeout in your fair odds? if you don't then you are just calculating the probabilities of winning against the other horses in the field. You are not getting odds that can be directly compared to the live odds, because the live odds do reflect the takeout. Sure, you can convert the live odds to probabilities which will better allow you to compare your probabilities line with the live probabilities line, based on the live odds. But, keep in mind that the live odds will almost assuredly change after you have made your bet, upward or downward.

Another problem with creating a line is the "Power" level and the "Confidence" level, both of which should be tailored to the individual race, as these levels will affect the odds line.

But, by far, the ratings are the sticking point for most lines, they just aren't as accurate, in individual races, as they should be in order to bet with confidence based on your line versus the live odds. I have an automated fair odds line in my program, but would never consider using it to determine betting value.

[Capper Al]

A line counts attributes of one's scoring system, not the horse. Hopefully, they correlate well. But remember a line that correlates only 33% of the time is a good line while missing the mark 67% of the time.