Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Handicapping Library


View Poll Results: Which product would you consider purchasing in the next 60 days if it were available?
Pace Handicapping: Which Paceline Should I Select? 14 9.93%
Basics of Winning: How to Make an Odds Line 7 4.96%
Speed Handicapping After the Numbers 3 2.13%
Handicapping Late Speed 4 2.84%
Fred Davis 2009: A Systematic Handicapping Approach 15 10.64%
A New Approach to Form Cycle Analysis 16 11.35%
Basics of Winning: Which Bet to Make? 9 6.38%
Pace Handicapping: New Modeling Techniques 19 13.48%
Monty Hall: Getting 2/3s the Winners in 1/3 the Horses 20 14.18%
Twenty Winning Spot Play Angles 18 12.77%
Basics of Winning: Finding the Vulnerable Favorite 12 8.51%
Basics of Winning: Favorites You Should Bet 4 2.84%
Voters: 141. This poll is closed

Reply
 
Thread Tools Rating: Thread Rating: 5 votes, 5.00 average.
Old 01-03-2009, 07:04 PM   #1
Dave Schwartz
 
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,873
New Product Survey

I am about to build a new handicapping book and would like your input to help me choose a direction.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Which of the following products would you most likely purchase in the next 60 days if it were available?


1. Pace Handicapping: Which Paceline Should I Select?
In a claiming sprint for older males you should use...
In an MSW route for three-year olds in June you shold use...

2. Basics of Winning: How to Make an Odds Line
How to use one or more factors to make an odds line.

3. Speed Handicapping After the Numbers
Which speed ratings should be used and when?
(This assumes that you are not making your own numbers.)

4. Handicapping Late Speed
Everyone writes about early speed. What makes a late horse win?

5. Fred Davis 2009: A Systematic Handicapping Approach
In 1974 Fred Davis wrote Percentages and Probabilities. This would be patterned after that, with different factors and values.

6. A New Approach to Form Cycle Analysis
Analyzing form from a "sheet-like" view point.

7. Basics of Winning: Which Bet to Make?
Some races allow you to bet the "best" horse who is usually low-priced. Most do not. This is about deciding which bet is appropriate in a given situation.

8. Pace Handicapping: New Modeling Techniques
This goes beyond the classic Brohamer Model, taking you to a whole new level.


9. Monty Hall: Getting 2/3s the Winners in 1/3 the Horses
You begin with 3 contenders per race and get 2/3s of their total wins in just one selection.

10. Twenty Winning Spot Play Angles
Some are unbelievably high hit rate and some are lower hit rates and high profits.

11. Basics of Winning: Finding the Vulnerable Favorite
What makes a favorite vulnerable and how do you capitalize on that?

12. Basics of Winning: Favorites You Should Bet
These are profitable favorites and favorites that should not be bet against.

Last edited by Dave Schwartz; 01-03-2009 at 07:09 PM.
Dave Schwartz is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-03-2009, 09:10 PM   #2
banacek
Registered User
 
banacek's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 1,735
I seem to recall you mentioning a book a while back..that would be great. I would certainly be interested in almost anything on the list. It was hard to pick one..I'd say 7,2,5,9,8 as my top 5.
banacek is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-04-2009, 12:05 AM   #3
crestridge
Paladin & Fudge
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: CALIFORNIA
Posts: 340
NEW PRODUCT SURVEY

Number 4, 6, and 9 are most intriguing. Please include at least these three!!
crestridge is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-04-2009, 01:40 AM   #4
JustRalph
Just another Facist
 
JustRalph's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,611
9
__________________
WE ARE THE DUMBEST COUNTRY ON THE PLANET!
JustRalph is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-04-2009, 03:06 AM   #5
Overlay
 
Overlay's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posts: 7,706
From my perspective, 5 by itself would suffice to adequately address several of the other areas that you mention.
Overlay is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-04-2009, 09:45 AM   #6
BIG HIT
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 737
choice

Would take #10 and then #9 those two should live happy ever after.
BIG HIT is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-04-2009, 09:45 AM   #7
dutchboy
Veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 968
I do not know how much work is involved in writing each topic. Maybe you could devote a chapter to each topic.
dutchboy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-04-2009, 10:11 AM   #8
jandrus
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 42
all of them. then there will be something for everybody.
jandrus is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-04-2009, 10:19 AM   #9
Dave Schwartz
 
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,873
Each one is a complete book.
Dave Schwartz is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-04-2009, 10:58 AM   #10
Niko
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,042
Looks like you'll have a nice side business going with a lot of good topics that will really help people.

The Monty Hall one is very intriguing.

Then I'd go with #5.

I see 20 profitable spot plays has a slight lead....wouldn't they become 20 unprofitable spot plays after being published
Niko is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-04-2009, 11:47 AM   #11
dylbert
Turf Economist
 
dylbert's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 1,313
Let's Make A Deal Handicapping!

9. Monty Hall: Getting 2/3s the Winners in 1/3 the Horses
You begin with 3 contenders per race and get 2/3s of their total wins in just one selection.

Will Carol Merrill and Jay Stewart have any roles in this book? Also, I would suggest alternate title: Handicapping without Zonks!
__________________
@wire2wirewin
Turf Economist since 1974
dylbert is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-04-2009, 12:18 PM   #12
punteray
Registered User
 
punteray's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Bishop, CA
Posts: 249
3

10, 11, 12
punteray is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-04-2009, 12:23 PM   #13
Fingal
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 955
Since there was only one option, I voted for #8. An old line " Handicapper, know thy track."

But I'd be interested in #4 too.
Late speed is the one hole in my game of the races I choose to bet, & has me tearing out my hair on occasion. And I don't have enough left to afford that............
Fingal is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-04-2009, 01:22 PM   #14
dutchboy
Veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 968
Re; Monty Hall

I once read an article in regards to the math and probability regarding switching doors when asked. It has been many years but if I recall correctly a person should always switch but I cannot recall the exact math reasons behind it.

Does anyone else recall this?
dutchboy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-04-2009, 01:29 PM   #15
Overlay
 
Overlay's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posts: 7,706
Quote:
Originally Posted by dutchboy
Re; Monty Hall

I once read an article in regards to the math and probability regarding switching doors when asked. It has been many years but if I recall correctly a person should always switch but I cannot recall the exact math reasons behind it.

Does anyone else recall this?
Not to pull this thread off-topic, but check this earlier thread:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...t=21334&page=1
Overlay is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:06 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.