The "great betting race"

[Valuist]

IMO, this is one of the biggest myths in racing. When you see a race with the favorite at 3-1 with a couple of 7-2 or 4-1 shots, the talking heads are quick to point that its a "great betting race". Yet, this is a race where there's likely no great value. A great betting race is one where there is value created because one (or more) horse(s) are being severly overbet, creating value on others.

[Bill Olmsted]

Value can be found in any race at any odds if the horse in question is going off at odds greater than its real chances of winning.

[Valuist]

Yeah, theoretically. But in reality, usually in wide open races with tepid favorites they are priced that way for a reason; they don't merit heavier action. A far more likely scenario is a stakes race where the favorite has been overhyped, and ends up severely overbet.

[cj]

One thing I have found is field size is a big factor in producing valuable betting propositions. The public doesn't make nearly as many mistakes in smaller fields.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Valuist

A great betting race is one where there is value created because one (or more) horse(s) are being severly overbet, creating value on others.

I agree. The best betting situation in racing is the vulnerable heavy favorite.

[Dave Schwartz]

I must agree with the talking heads here.

Competitive fields usually lead to consistently higher payoffs. It has been (historically, for me) the reason Saratoga is such a great meet: there are so many competitive fields. (As I recall the last year or two that has not been the case so much.)

Of course, "a great betting race" is certainly up to the perception of the individual - there are even great betting races with 4/5 horses in the race - it just happens more often when there is no stand out favorite.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[kenwoodallpromos]

Look for 6-1+ overlays including long, long shots.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Valuist

IMO, this is one of the biggest myths in racing. When you see a race with the favorite at 3-1 with a couple of 7-2 or 4-1 shots, the talking heads are quick to point that its a "great betting race". Yet, this is a race where there's likely no great value. A great betting race is one where there is value created because one (or more) horse(s) are being severly overbet, creating value on others.

I agree that heavily bet favorites who are weak is a great time to wager.

However, when there are 3 or more top horses, close in odds, the odds of some bigger odds hitting are pretty good. I like this in my superfecta wagering. Even if one of those top horses wins there is less of a chance for the other 3 to get in the money because they usually are racing each other and the right pace for one could be totally wrong for the other ones, which leaves it open for some very high odds horses to hit 2nd, 3rd, or 4th.

[runzaton]

great betting races are the ones that I win ......

[Onion Monster]

I'll second cj. The more I play, the more I realize big fields offer the best chance for value on my selections.

And if I can detect a substantial track bias and the fields are full, regardless the odds range, that's a great betting race for me.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

One thing I have found is field size is a big factor in producing valuable betting propositions. The public doesn't make nearly as many mistakes in smaller fields.

I agree.

Also, the public tends to overbet really bad horses without much shot and there are typically more of them in a really big field.

[mountainman]

While indentifying dead chalk should lead a sharp player to scores, my best hits result not so much from hating the favorite, as from loving another horse.
Odds aside, a bettable race for me begins by being decipherable. So often it seems that when the favorite is grossly overbet, the rest of the race is confusing. It's easy to say "embrace the chaos," but to not cash is to not capitalize on a dead favorite. And experience has taught me that I don't collect unless I have strong convictions about the horse(s) I use on top. I suspect that's what an Andy Beyer means when he characterizes himself as "selection oriented."

[strapper]

Originally Posted by Valuist

IMO, this is one of the biggest myths in racing. When you see a race with the favorite at 3-1 with a couple of 7-2 or 4-1 shots, the talking heads are quick to point that its a "great betting race". Yet, this is a race where there's likely no great value. A great betting race is one where there is value created because one (or more) horse(s) are being severly overbet, creating value on others.

I think when the term "a great betting race" is used it is said from the perspective of track management and not necessarily from a horseplayer's viewpoint. A "great betting race" to a handicapper is really any race where your horse is an overlay and nothing else really matters.

Racing secretaries assigning weights to a handicap have as their objective to bring the field closer together which theoretically would make a terrific betting race for the public. If the standout horse wouldn't have to pack a highweight he/she would be such a short price plus probably scare off the competition in the first place.